Wednesday Open Thread [5.8.13]
I wrote this last night about the fact that Ernie Lopez, Gerald Hocker and Greg Lavelle ending their statewide political futures with their votes against marriage equality yesterday and about the chances that Cathy Cloutier, on the other hand, had elevated her statewide future based on her yes vote:
The problem, though, is the Republican Party. When I say that the next Republican Governor of Delaware will support marriage equality, I say that because no one who doesn’t support marriage equality will ever win a statewide race going forward. They will barely crack 40% of the vote. So for a Republican to win, he or she will have to be for marriage equality.
BUT…
For the foreseeable future (at least until 2016), the Republican Party’s base is violently against marriage equality, and no Republican candidate can win the primary or get the nod at the state convention without being against marriage equality. Maybe the victory today will speed the death of the rabid bigots at the heart of the state GOP, and I hope it does. But assuming it doesn’t, the GOP is caught in a horrible catch-22: it can only nominate anti-gay candidates, and it can only win with pro-equality candidates.
And this, in response to how losing could be so addictive to our state GOP:
How can losing be so addictive? Easy. It allows these social conservatives to play a role they love so well: that of the victim. They love whining about how oppressed they are. And nothing proves their oppression more than defeat after defeat after defeat at the ballot box and in roll call votes in the General Assembly. And nothing brings in the dollars of retired old bigots more than hate and fear and victimhood.
Jonathan Bernstein agrees with me, or I guess I agree with him (depending on who wrote what first) in his latest article in the Washington Monthly:
Some will argue that it’s a problem that’s self-correcting: a broken party will lose elections, and we do know that ideologically extreme parties tend to moderate after extended electoral loss. I worry, however, that the current GOP isn’t normal enough to follow that pattern. I worry about the conservative marketplace and the downgrading of the electoral incentive. I worry about the information loop, and the inability of even those Republicans who want to win elections to correctly diagnose what it takes to do so. I worry that those who do stay in touch with reality tend to be exiled from the party. And I worry that the electoral incentive for moderation simply isn’t great enough to overcome all of that. Mostly, however, I worry that it’s not really just a question of ideological positioning. If Republicans really believe that compromise is evil, then it doesn’t really matter whether the ideological gap between their position and the Democratic position is narrow or wide.
They will change or die, emphasis on die. Currently the old guard of the Republicans is just that: Old. At some point enough will die off and the party will change, until that time the hatreds, phobias and fears of the past will keep them out of state wide office. Good, some lessons are best learned the hard way.
Did Hocker have a statewide future? Did Cloutier? News to me.
Hocker wants to run for Governor. He wants a statewide future. He ain’t gonna get it.
The first step to becoming governor is winning the primary. In the Republican Party, voting against marriage equality is the first hurdle to winning the primary, which is why Lopez and Hocker voted as they did.
If being against gay marriage didn’t kill Barack Obama’s future, I’m pretty sure it won’t damage Ernie Lopez’s.
If being against gay marriage didn’t kill Barack Obama’s future, I’m pretty sure it won’t damage Ernie Lopez’s.
You can localize this even more since Tom Carper and John Carney were re-elected easily in Delaware before they saw the light.
@anon: Also true. The real problem with Ernie’s political future is the R after his name.
Geezer, your comment completely ignores the rapid and unprecedented acceptance of this issue over the last decade. It is irrelevant that Obama and Carper and Carney’s careers were not damaged from their past opposition, because, ten years ago, most every politician was against it and states were rushing to put it on the ballot to defeat gay marriage. The pendulum has swung rapidly the other way. Going forward, come 2016, if they are still unrepentant and still against marriage equality, their candidacies in the general election will be a nonstarter.
No, my comment completely contradicts your absurd prediction. You don’t know, and neither do I. You are certain you do, however; I am certain you do not.
Chest-thumping braggadocio expressed as predictions of the future is no more becoming in liberals than it is in conservatives.
If you’re interested in data-based predictions about gay marriage acceptance, Nate Silver tackled the subject a few weeks ago. He concluded that the rate of acceptance has NOT increased.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/26/how-opinion-on-same-sex-marriage-is-changing-and-what-it-means/
that’s fine if Hocker wants to be Governor. I want to be married to Kate Upton. Doesn’t mean its going to happen.
LOL.
Ouch. it just hit me. Clothier is the only R who can make a state run with dignity now… She’s their top draw… (talk about a surprise, I’m still speechless).
Hocker would carry Christine O’Donnell’s districts by 10% but would be at a loss in metro Kent and New Castle County to the tune of 30-60… A lot of cross overs might occur up and down the state to assist and make it happen, as did the Republican State Treasurer become a Democrat last season for that same reason on our side.
That meas Clothier wins the republican primary. For what, is up to her. but there is no one who can touch her… And in the primary our IPOD friends will not be there to support Governor Hocker.
Five-year old shoots his seven-year old brother in Texas.
In Texas they call that “natural causes”.
Further thoughts on the shooting above:
1. They were taking a bath at the time. Why would you keep a gun in the bathroom? In case of Ghoulies?
2. Oh, if only the 7 year old was armed, he could have defended himself! I’m seriously waiting to hear the NRA say that.
3. Clearly our bathrooms need more armed guards to protect our children.
You can have my gun when you pry it from my child’s cold dead hand.
In Florida, 3 year old shoots himself with his uncle’s gun.
Lopez handled the whole marriage bill poorly. Dodging constituents, not responding to emails or letters. His wimpy passive agressive post on facebook.
He played it politically “safe”. Not staking out his claim like a Hocker or Venables.
In a few years he will finally “get there” when it is politically convenient for him. Or not.
In short, he’s the douche I thought he was on the campaign trail. Playin the whole (code speak) “family man” image to hilt.
Cloutier will lose to a wignut in her next primary. From a “politics 101” perspective, this is a good example of why you should always put Republicans to hard votes.
Nah….I see Cloutier running for statewide office and winning. Class act and the shape of things to come in the state Republican Party, which scares the Delaware Democrat Party to death.
Don’t get me wrong. I DO love the positive vibes that the 4 or 5 “sane” Republicans still seem to be able to gin up. Your party chair, of course, is not on board with your wishful thinking though.
“Nah….I see Cloutier running for statewide office and winning.”
I have had limited personal interaction with Cathy, but I like her and see why she is so popular with her constituents. But what statewide office would she compete for? According to CathyCloutier.com, she does not have a bachelor’s degree. On top of that, when her term ends in January 2016 she will be 66 years old. Will she want a full-time state job that requires her to travel to Dover every day, unlike her General Assembly seat?
With her votes for same-sex marriage and background checks, I doubt she’d pass the purity test the base requires for candidates. As popular as she may be in NCCo, she’d have a hard time winning a primary.
Here’s something you don’t read every day:
Could this actually be a national first?
Guys, some perspective, please?
I am thrilled that Cathy voted for marriage equality, and I am thrilled that she has stepped out on behalf of other progressive causes.
But, she’s not a statewide candidate. Articulating her vision is not, to put it mildly, her strong suit. She is well-liked in our district and, after her vote, she is much beloved by many, as she should be.
But that’s as far as it goes. And that’s enough.