Day: May 28, 2013

As we get closer to the 2014 midterm elections, you are going to start hearing more and more about the generic ballot. It is a poll question where polling organizations ask their respondents whether they are voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate as their Representative in Congress. Now, generally, this question only tells so much if the results are relatively close together, for example, Dems 42, GOP 40. Because in that instance, local politics, gerrymandering, and the incumbency advantage all play a part in deciding the race no matter the national preference for one party over the other. However, when the disparity between the two parties on this question becomes wider, it often indicates that a wave election is coming where one political party gets their candidates elected over the other. For example, in 2006, the ABC/Washington Post poll right before the election showed the Dems enjoying a 6 point lead over the GOP on the generic ballot question. The Dems won 30 plus seats and the House. A new Washington Post/ABC News poll found that the Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot by 8 points, 48% to 40%. Meanwhile, the Republicans are really going to regret naming the Affordable Care Act... "Obamacare."