Friday Open Thread [7.12.13]

A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds Gov. Chris Christie (R) has a 2-1 job approval rating and a 61% to 29% lead over challenger Barbara Buono (D).

However, just 20% of voters say they are more likely to vote for a state legislative candidate endorsed by Christie, with 15% less likely and 63% who say the governor’s endorsement won’t influence their vote.

Said pollster Maurice Carroll: “The governor continues to thrash Sen. Buono, but voters say they’re not inclined to support legislative candidates because Christie supports them, or, as a matter of fact, because Buono supports them. It could change when the real campaign starts after Labor Day, if Christie decides to emulate his mentor, former Gov. Tom Kean, and work for the rest of the ticket. But at this stage, Christie is good only for Christie.”.

Norm Ornstein:

“American history has many examples of a party going off the rails and taking a long time to recover. It was true of the Democrats in the 1890s and again in the 1960s and early ’70s. One rough rule of thumb is that a party has to lose three presidential elections in a row to make it clear that the problem is not just individual presidential candidates and their failures but something deeper, enough to motivate a party to move to expand beyond its ideological base and capture the center. But if that happens in 2016 — if Democrats make it three wins in a row — I am not sure it will be enough for the GOP.”

“That is because I see at least five Republican parties out there, with a lot of overlap, but with enough distinct differences that the task is harder than usual. There is a House party, a Senate party, and a presidential party, of course. But there is also a Southern party and a non-Southern one. The two driving forces dominating today’s GOP are the House party and the Southern one — and they will not be moved or shaped by another presidential loss. If anything, they might double down on their worldviews and strategies.”