I’m El Somnambulo, and I’m a listaholic.
Admit it: So are you.
Bearing in mind that incumbents need viable challengers in order to be vulnerable, here is a list of those with at least reason to be worried:
State Auditor Tom Wagner(R): A do-nothing R in an increasingly D state. Here’s the problem. If a do-nothing R is replaced by a do-nothing D, does it really make any difference? No doubt it does to Tom Wagner. But not to Patrick Harker or Lonnie George. Which is my point. And the problem.
State Treasurer Chip Flowers(D): While the R’s talk hopefully, and, IMHO, delusionally, about defeating him, I suspect that any real challenge would come from the Democrats. We’ll likely know in 6 months or so whether there will be a party-backed challenger. We might as well get used to Flowers being a polarizing figure by choice. Which would be fine if it was principle, not ego, driving that train.
State Senator Greg Lavelle (R-4th SD): Got 50.8% against Michael Katz. Probably less vulnerable this time, but he’s got two more years of anti-gay and pro-gun votes on his record. Will a credible challenger emerge?
I know that people expect me to have Ernesto Lopez on this list, but I don’t see him as particularly vulnerable. Feel free to make a case.
State Rep. Charles Potter (D-1st RD): He’d be near the top of the list if a credible challenger was already out there. Benefited greatly by the coattails (and machine) of Dennis P. Williams and Tom Gordon last time. Neither are on the ballot in 2014. He has cast some major ‘scratch your head’ votes for his district. And he keeps getting in the papers for the wrong reasons. Not respected in the caucus at all. Plus, should Wilmington voters decide that Dennis P. is not ‘all that’ as mayor, they may take it out on the family who most benefited by his largesse.
State Rep. Dennis E. Williams (D-10th RD): As close to ‘dead man walking’ in a political sense as anyone running for reelection. He betrayed many of his House supporters by flipping on the leadership vote, he has a primary opponent, Sean Matthews, who got 47.2% of the vote against him in 2012, and he’s still one of the least visible legislators around. When you’re that vulnerable, and you have former friends who are now motivated to defeat you, you’re close to outtahere.
State Rep. Jeffrey Spiegelman (R-11th RD): Won a razor-thin margin vs. Lynne Newlin in 2012 with 50.3% of the vote. He has lost respect from both R’s and D’s, in contrast to another freshman Rep., Stephen Smyk. You rarely hear the terms ‘rude’ and ‘boorish’ when it comes to elected officials, but you do here. You also have a 1400 D registration plurality in this district centered in SW NCC and NW Kent County.
State Rep. Deborah Hudson (R-12th RD): Talk on the street is that she’s got a legit R primary challenger. When you’ve run unopposed as long as Hudson has (meaning you haven’t run at all), and when you’re faced with a (presumably) younger challenger, it’s tough to scrape the rust off your own knees, much less your campaign machinery.
State Rep. Valerie Longhurst (D-15th RD): A name on the ballot got 42% of the vote over this lightning-rod of a representative. Tells me that a serious primary challenger with some support (perhaps labor, for example, resents her assistance in killing minimum wage legislation) can beat her.
State Rep. William ‘Bobby’ Outten (R-30th RD): Well, this one has come out of nowhere. Outten has been very popular. However, an R-turned-D named Jonathan Gallo has already announced a challenge in this Harrington area district. Here’s where it gets interesting. In a News-Journal article, Outten basically says that he was considering retirement and that he likely would have endorsed Gallo–had he remained an R. Gallo, 38, appears to have ‘the profile’:
“I’ve been a farmer, I’ve been in construction; I’ve also been a finance professional, a business leader, as well as a firefighter. (He’s also been a floor wax and a dessert topping.) That diverse background will enable me to be successful,” he said. “I really respect Bobby and I think he’s done a good job representing the district, but he’s coming up on 10 years and I feel I’ll be able to represent the district and provide a little bit more service.”
Outten is the strong favorite here, but the D’s look to be building a good bench in Kent County. Methinks Dave Lawson will disappear from the Senate in 2016.
State Rep. Andria Bennett (D-32nd RD): If there really is a God (I know, I know, there isn’t), then we’ll be treated to the husband vs. wife primary of our dreams: former Rep. Brad Bennett vs. his current wife (and pathetic state rep) Andria Bennett. I know I don’t speak for my colleagues. However, were this contest to come to fruition, I’d support us hiring a psychiatrist and/or family counselor to provide analysis. The smarmier the better. Failing that, I’ll invent one. Working monicker: Dr. Oedipus Freud. Surely you can do better than that.
State Rep. Ruth Briggs King (R-37th RD): She’s even lost face with Sussex County R’s, who selected the unknown Nelly Jordan over her for Party Vice-Chair. And she is justifiably despised by any D’s who, for example, support the rights of people living in manufactured homes communities. She also may well face a strong candidate who started late last time. Elizabeth McGinn got 45.2% against RBK despite a truncated campaign. And a possible R primary challenger. RBK’s still the favorite, but she is vulnerable.
Rep. John Atkins (D-41st RD): Tongues wagged at Atkins’ 69-vote margin over developer/despoiler Richard Collins. (Note: I was trying to make a tawdry joke here. Homey don’t do ‘tongues wagged’. Celia’s got the copyright on that. Although it’d be fun to see a group try to break the Guinness World Record for Tongue-Wagging. But, I digress.) Didn’t see that coming. Who knows what next year will bring. If there’s a rematch, there’s only one guarantee: The 41st District will be represented by someone who is unfit for public office. Come to think of it, that’s pretty much an ironclad guarantee in any event.
Sussex County Sheriff Jeff Christopher (R): The ‘unfit for public office’ segue is both cheap and easy. And true. Like Chip Flowers, Christopher has spent his term claiming that the law is what he thinks it is, not what it is. As a result, both try to carry out duties that they don’t have. I will leave any predictions about Christopher’s future to our downstate spies. I have no earthly idea. Except that laughs at Christopher’s expense will be had by many.
Speaking of laughs, Al Mascitti and I will discuss this, and various other assorted buffoonery, on the Al Show today, 10 am to 12 noon, WDEL 1150 on your AM dial, or right here.
OK, all you spies out ‘in the field’. Turn this thread into Rumor Central. What do you hear? Where am I totally off base? What am I missing? Your turn.