Dems face a very tough challenge in terms of holding their U.S. Senate majority in 2014, but there are some grounds for hope, as Jessica Taylor writes at MSNBC: “Republicans inherited a very friendly map, but they have failed to put any blue or purple states into play. Even in the red states, Republicans are mired in divisive primaries that pit Tea Party conservatives against establishment Republicans favored by the Washington elite. The party has failed to unite behind a candidate in any of the most competitive states they cite,” said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee communications director Matt Canter. “Democrats have had tremendous recruiting success in Iowa and Michigan, where Democrats now are the undisputed favorites. Grimes’ candidacy fundamentally changes the map, forcing Republicans to spend millions playing defense, and Democrats are confident that she can defeat McConnell. Democrats also believe that a Todd Akin conservative will emerge in Georgia and provide a pick up opportunity for the right moderate Democrat with an independent Georgia brand.”
That moderate Dem with an independent Georgia brand is Michelle Nunn, the daughter of the former Senator Sam Nunn, who announced her candidacy this week. You know, I bet you after all is said and done, the Dems will once again hold the majority in the Senate if not gain seats. Why do I say that?
We are at 54 Democrats (well, actually 52 Dems and 2 Independents who caucus with the Dems), and 46 Republicans right now.
The GOP is virtually assured a pick up in South Dakota as Senator Tim Johnson, who suffered a stroke back in 2009 and still suffers from the affects of it, is retiring, and popular former GOP Governor Mike Rounds is running for the seat. Meanwhile, the Dems are virtually assured a pick up in New Jersey. Yes, it is strange to say that New Jersey has a Republican Senator right now, but it is due to Gov. Christie’s appointment of Jeff Chisea to replaced the late Frank Lautenberg. Chisea is not not running for election in his own right, and even if he were, he would lose to Corey Booker or whatever Democrat emerges from the primary.
Where the Dems are in trouble, and why the punditry are saying that the GOP could retake control of the Senate, is with the West Virginia and Montana open seats. I list them as toss ups, because we don’t know who the Democratic candidate is going to be there yet. With the right kind of Democrat, like Joe Manchin in WV or Jon Tester or Brian Schweitzer (who is not running) in Montana, those seats will remain competitive and toss ups.
But, the Dems have had recruiting success in Georgia, Iowa, Michigan and Kentucky that have made two of those states (Iowa and Michigan) that could have been open seat tossups into pretty safe Democratic retentions. Indeed, under the heading “Lean Democratic,” while I think those races will be competitive in that the Republicans will and are contesting, I think the Democrats will retain all of them. Yes, even Mark Pryor’s seat in Arkansas and Mark Begich’s seat in Alaska.
The other two recruiting sucesses are in Kentucky and Georgia, where the Democrats are poised to pick up surprise victories, no matter if the Republican candidate they are facing is a Tea Party primary candidate. So if that happens, and the Dems win in Kentucky and Georgia, while losing West Virginia and Montana, guess what? Everything stays the same. If the Dems win those seats and defend West Virginia and Montana, we gain, once again.
Meanwhile, back in Delaware, the Delaware ADA is holding two events on Friday, July 26, up and down the state. At 11:45 am down at Bethany Blues in Lewes, and at 5:30 pm at the Home Grown Cafe in Newark, the Delaware ADA is having Matt Gardner, the Executive Director of the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, speak about what taxes DuPont does and does not pay on the federal and state levels, as well as the how and why behind those numbers. In Lewes, there will be a luncheon, and in Newark, there will be a Happy Hour.
Here is the cool hand drawn flyer for that event:
