Wednesday Open Thread [10.23.13]

Roll Call:

It’s hard to say which should trouble Republican Party leaders the most right now: the sour mood among GOP donors, or the money suddenly swelling Democratic campaign and super PAC coffers.

Not only have the Democratic campaign committees that back House and Senate candidates outraised their GOP counterparts, but unrestricted super PACs that support Democrats have pulled in close to three times what GOP super PACs have so far, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

VIRGINIA–GOVERNOR–Rasmussen: Terry McAuliffe (D) 50, Ken Cuccinelli (R) 33, Robert Sarvis (L) 8.

I know it is Rasmussen… but usually it has a Republican effect. So if you are a Republican, this poll must really really hurt, or McAuliffe must have a 25-30 point lead.

VIRGINIA–GOVERNOR–EARLY VOTERS–Public Policy Polling: McAuliffe 57, Cuccinelli 39.

This is a poll of actual voters who have actually already voted. If I were a Republican, I would start drinking now.

Jonathan Bernstein is betting against another government shutdown:

All three extended shutdowns in recent American history—the two Newt Gingrich shutdowns in late 1995, and the Ted Cruz shutdown this month—were deliberately planned. In 1995, Gingrich foolishly believed that Bill Clinton was a weak man who would buckle if faced with the risks of an extended shutdown. This year, at least if you accept the surface explanation, radicals believed that a long fight would spark a wave of anger at Obamacare. It’s possible, of course, that Tea Partiers or some other group will decide another long shutdown is the right plan. But don’t expect prolonged shutdown (more than two or three days) to be the natural result of a normal budget stalemate. It doesn’t seem to happen.

And Stan Collender is betting against a big budget deal:

[W]hy does anyone think that the 2014 sequester that will occur on mid-January unless Congress and the White House agree on a deal to stop it will be enough to get everyone to compromise? Everyone also hated it the first time around but it was the best alternative compared to all of the others. Not only will that still be the case in January 2014, it will be even truer this winter with the primaries and general election being only months rather than years away.

That’s not to say that a budget deal can’t or won’t happen in December and January. But it does say that, if there is a deal, it will be much smaller and far more symbolic than significant. It will be the kind of deal where everyone declares victory and goes home.

NATIONAL–THE HATRED OF THE GOP–CNN/ORC: 64% of Americans say they have an unfavorable view of the Republican party, an all-time high dating back to 1992 when CNN first asked the question. Only 30% say they hold a favorable view of the party. 56% say they have an unfavorable view of the tea party movement, another record high in CNN polling.

HAWAII–U.S. SENATE–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–Honolulu Civil Beat: Sen. Brian Schatz 38, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa 36.

NEW HAMPSHIRE–U.S. SENATE–UNH: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 51, Former Rep. Charlie Bass (R) 34; Shaheen 53, Former State Sen. Jim Rubens (R) 28