Charlie Cook thinks the Republicans must win back the Senate in 2014 or else they will not be in the majority for the next decade at least.
The reason next year is so make-or-break for Senate Republicans is because in 2016, when all of the seats they won in 2010 come up—they netted a six-seat net gain that year—there will be 24 GOP seats up, compared with only 10 for Democrats, leading to some serious Republican overexposure. Seven of the 24 GOP senators up are hailing from states that Obama carried in 2012. After having had plentiful Democratic targets in 2012 and 2014, it will be Republicans in 2016 who will have the most incumbents in the crosshairs.
All of this is to say that Republicans really have to do well in the Senate elections in 2014, largely because they will have few opportunities for gains in 2016, a year in which they will be playing defense, not offense. This means that Republicans cannot nominate some of the more exotic candidates that they nominated in Delaware and Nevada in 2010, or weak candidates with weak campaigns as they did that year in Colorado. Comparable candidates to Todd Akin or Richard Mourdock, the 2012 Missouri and Indiana candidates whose nominations effectively meant that the GOP seized defeat from the jaws of victory in multiple states, should be avoided. So, the 2014 Senate elections really are important.
I personally think the Dems are going to lose South Dakota and West Virginia, while winning in Georgia and Kentucky. So that means we will keep our 55-45 majority heading into 2016, an election in which Booman thinks we can win 10 seats, giving President Hillary Clinton a filibuster proof majority again.
The News Journal has a haunted house expose up. Here is an interesting tidbit from the story:
Former Delaware GOP Chairman Terry Strine, for example, feels exactly the opposite of Milliken about his home near Centreville where a Delaware socialite was beaten to death in her first-floor bedroom in 1967. He finds it “totally illogical, irrational and psychologically crazy” that anyone would be spooked from buying the house where Katharine “Kaa” Thompson Wood died.
In fact, he enjoys conversing with the undead spirits every night as he refines the latest Republican talking points.
Congratulations to Lea Wainwright, Delaware’s Teacher of the Year!
Wainwright has been a teacher for 20 years, including 12 in the Appoquinimink School District. She says being a language teacher offers unique ways to connect classroom lessons to the larger world.
“I have incredible opportunities set before me to work with our international sister school in France, to take students on trips, to Skype with students from our classroom and to have e-pals,” Wainwight told WDDE Tuesday night. “So, when I’m preaching that you need to think big ideas and all the little things you do have a ripple effect across the globe, I can so them that in a real world situation.” […]
As Teacher of the Year, Wainwright receives a $5,000 grant to use for the educational benefit of her students, two personal grants of $5,000, and an educational technology package worth about $18,000 from SMART technologies.
Wainwight says she’s not sure exactly what she’ll use the money for just yet, but says technology is near the top of the list.
“My classroom is a BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) classroom, we just started that this year and I would love to have a little more technology in my classroom. So, I’ve already got my eyes on that prize.”
Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) says Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) is an “absolute asshole.” Good. I want Republicans to hate Reid. That tells me he is doing a good job.
NEW YORK CITY–MAYOR—New York Times/Siena: Bill de Blasio (D) 68, Joseph Lhota (R) 23.
“That lead, which has remained remarkably consistent in multiple polls over the last six weeks, suggests that Mr. de Blasio could win the most sweeping victory in a mayor’s race since 1985, when Edward I. Koch was re-elected to a third term with a crushing 68-point margin of victory over his opponents.”
VIRGINIA–GOVERNOR–Washington Post: Terry McAuliffe (D) 51, Ken Cuccinelli (R) 39.
Jason has noted before that Terry McAuliffe has run a very liberal campaign, which is kinda surprising given that this is Virginia we are talking about. However, times have changed, and McAuliffe’s campaign reflects that. Virginia is not a red state anymore. At worst, it is a purple state in off year elections, and a deep blue state in presidential years. Daily Kos digs into the internals of the Washington Post above to prove it:
McAuliffe has run an explicitly socially liberal campaign: from marriage equality, to expanded abortion rights, to cap and trade, to an assault weapons ban. This was supposed to be anathema in Virginia, especially the gun stuff. Meanwhile, Cuccinelli has been running a muscularly teabaggy campaign, giving conservatives everything they’ve ever hoped for.
And a funny thing happened: Independents went from 35 percent for McAuliffe to 47 percent over the last month. Cuccinelli’s support dropped among indies, from 39 to 36 percent.
McAuliffe also maintains a 58-34 lead among women, 85-12 among non-whites, 56-38 in Northern Virginia, 49-40 in the rest of Virginia, 51-40 among seniors, 52-38 among those under 50. Cuccinelli? He’s winning whites 47-42. The path to victory no longer runs through Reagan Democrats. Or conservatism.
The Big Dog campaigned in Virginia yesterday, and now President Barack Obama is heading into town—not really to help McAuliffe, since TMac doesn’t need the help, but to goose Democratic turnout across the state.