What does 3rd party status actual mean for the DEGOP?
I posted the post below yesterday at Daily Kos, because a little triumphalism isn’t going to kill anyone, and because I love the fact that the DEGOP is so flat on its back.
Anyway, George (from Massachusetts, where Republicans are at 11% or so of the registered voters) commented…
Your comment — “If another 6,000 people make their preference official, the GOP will be a third party.” Are you referencing some feature of your state ballot access laws?
To which I replied,
I don’t know the ballot access details…so no. It was just a comment on the raw numbers. I’ll check ballot access and third party requirements tomorrow.
Can anyone help me out with this? Will the GOP be handicapped if they lose another 6,000 defectors?
>>>>>>>>>>>>< <<<<<<<<<<<<<< Perhaps is was Christine O'Donnell, or it might have been the government shutdown. But a recent The University of Delaware’s Center for Political Communication poll shows that the two largest parties in the State of Delaware are the Democrats (40%) and Independents (34%), with the GOP bringing up the rear at 22%.
Independents, Other Party, Don’t Know Party lean Democratic 33%, Republican 30% – so even among the I’s the Democratic Party is the party of choice.
That is polling data. In other words, a mere 22% percent of Delaware voters admit to being republicans. The actual voter registration numbers are lagging behind voter sentiment, but are nearly as bad: 303,157 Delaware voters are Dems (48%), 180,041 are Republicans (28%) A den margin of 123,116.
In 2002 the margin was 48,800.
Basically, the GOP in Delaware is hemorrhaging members. If another 6,000 people make their preference official, the GOP will be a third party.
We had a closely fought Democratic primary for Governor in which moderate Republicans switched party IDs to vote for Jock Markell, who they considered the more business minded Democrat. That was the first bit of water over the dam.
Christine O’Donnell’s embarrassment of a primary campaign against “moderate” Michael Castle and her subsequent loss to Chris Coons didn’t give moderate Republicans a reason to return to the GOP and the recent tea party hi jinx in DC seem to provide the last straw for Delaware Republicans that once considered themselves part of the level-headed and sober of the two national parties.
Of course, our very Republican-lite Democrats have probably played a part as well. John Carney, for example is an old school DLC republican wanna-be 20 years too late.
I wonder about the GOP being a real 3rd party here. I think that people declaring themselves as Independent here are doing so to choose None of the Above, But I Want to Vote In General Elections. Independent in Delaware isn’t an organized party.
Wolfman VanBombgarters and I beg to differ. Everyone who is neither a D or an R is automatically a moon landing denier. (Just let me believe it for a few more hours.)
The GOP remains the option to express discontent here, though, which is why it remains important to make them express clearly their own agenda.
Independent is just another term for Unaffiliated in Delaware. I’m an Independent I do not belong to IPoD.
When you don’t vote in the GOP primary, you let the teabags pick the candidate.
Ditto. Besides IPOD sounds like pod people or something.
The GOP would have to sink below five percent to lose its major party status.
From Title 15:
Sect. 101
15
a. “Major political party” means any political party which, as of December 31 of the year immediately preceding any general election year, has registered in the name of that party voters equal to at least 5 percent of the total number of voters registered in the State.
b. “Minor political party” means any political party which does not qualify as a major political party.
and on ballot access generally:
§ 3001. Political parties.
No political party shall be listed on any general election ballot unless, 21 days prior to the date of the primary election, there shall be registered in the name of that party a number of voters equal to at least 1 0/100 of 1 percent of the total number of voters registered in the State as of December 31 of the year immediately preceding the general election year.
More Data Analysis……. Could Independents become an Offical 3rd Party and Vote in Primaries? This would be a Game Changer. Races are run and lost in the Primaries.
Norinda,
Unaffiliated voters would have to create a party to join. Even then, these Party X members would only be able to vote in their own primaries, not D or R ones.