Monday Open Thread [2.10.14]
The diversity of Fox News:
“There is no inherent power in the office of the vice presidency. Zero. None. It’s all a reflection of your reflection of your relationship with the President. I mean, Kennedy never let Johnson in the office. I spend somewhere between four and seven hours a day with the President.” — Vice President Joe Biden. Which is probably why Johnson had Kennedy killed.
Dan Balz: “House Republicans’ latest revolt against immigration reform spells potential trouble for the party’s 2016 presidential candidates. The last thing the GOP needs in 2016 is another primary season marked by debate and dissension over the fraught issue. [..] The party’s handling of immigration-reform legislation since President Obama won reelection with 71 percent of the Hispanic vote reprises a decades-long pattern that has weakened the GOP in the competition for Hispanic votes. On the one hand, there is the recognition that the party needs to do more to attract Hispanic votes. On the other, there are repeated actions, both individual and collective, that send the opposite signal.”
Republicans shooting themselves in the foot, the calf, the lower leg, and the thigh is becoming a theme. Here is an excerpt from a piece about how the right wing is going to elect President Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton.
[She] drives the right bonkers. This isn’t how a woman is supposed to act. She’s not supposed to be speaking up and certainly shouldn’t be thinking about the presidency.
Look at the clownish Rand Paul, who has been going on and on about somehow making Sec. Clinton to blame for President Clinton’s infidelities. Do these morons not get it? Bill Clinton is responsible for doing what he did, not his wife. And bringing up the entire episode only brings to mind the moment of Sec. Clinton’s highest possible public approval.[..]
They can’t think straight when “Clinton” is invoked. Out comes the conspiracy theories (Benghazi!) , the misogyny (everything Rush Limbaugh says), the ancient “scandals” from 20 years ago that are as ridiculous now as they ever were.
If she chooses to run, they’ll go right back to the well, and in the process they’ll wonder where all those anti-Clinton voters went (mostly dead) and where all those Clinton voters came from (everyone who isn’t a misogynistic doofus).
From the New York Times, it would seem that the Democrats are working 2014 like it was 2008 and 2012. It’s about time.
“The Democrats’ plan to hold on to their narrow Senate majority goes by the name “Bannock Street project.” It runs through 10 states, includes a $60 million investment and requires more than 4,000 paid staff members. And the effort will need all of that — and perhaps more — to achieve its goal, which is nothing short of changing the character of the electorate in a midterm cycle…”The question is whether the party’s Obama-era volunteer base will replicate itself for a Mark Pryor or a Mary Landrieu or a Kay Hagan,” said Sasha Issenberg, author of “The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns,” referring to three vulnerable incumbent Democratic senators…Campaigns are realizing that the smartest way to win the next vote is by mobilizing a nonvoter than by trying to win over a voter.”
POLLING:
FLORIDA–GOVERNOR–University of Florida: Former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) 47, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 40.
COLORADO–GOVERNOR–Quinnipiac: Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 48, Tom Tancredo (R) 39; Hickenlooper 46, Scott Gessler (R) 40; Hickenlooper 47, Greg Brophy (R) 37; Hickenlooper 47, Mike Kopp (R) 38.
The poll also shows 52% of Coloradans approve of the job Hickenlooper is doing.
GEORGIA–US SENATE–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–The Polling Company: Rep. Phil Gingrey (R) 19, Karen Handel (R) 14, Rep. Paul Broun (R) 13, Rep. Jack Kingston (R) 11 and David Perdue (R) 8.
“The close poll shows a wide-open field — and potential for concern for establishment Republicans. Both Broun and Gingrey have a history of gaffes and are considered seriously flawed general election candidates.”
Michelle Nunn and the Democrats are smiling.
ALASKA–US SENATE–Public Policy Polling: Sen. Mark Begich (D) 43, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R) 37; Begich 41, Dan Sullivan (R) 37; Begich 45, 2010 GOP and Teabag Nominee Joe Miller (R) 25.
Go Joe Miller!
Heard an interested program on NPR about the Republicans and Immigration Reform, the prediction was that regardless of what the party elite know is needed the base will label it “amnesty” and force the parties hand to reject it in the house. I certainly agree, that and that the GOP primary for 2016 will be yet another over stuffed clown car from hell. Unless your a Dem, of course.
@bamboozer Whenever you think the GOP can’t get more dysfunctional and clownish, they somehow manage to find a way. That was terribly frustrating when they were winning elections.
I guess the thing that has changed is that the Dems aren’t operating out of fear of the mighty conservative news/infotainment machine.
Via Attaturk
That family is so very famous for its scrupulous honesty.
New official reports reveal that former Wyoming Senate candidate Liz Cheney (R) dramatically oversold how much money she raised during her insurgent primary challenge against Sen. Mike Enzi (R-WY).
Mid-terms are usually difficult for the party in it’s sixth year in the White House. The GOP will probably focus of two issues; Obamacare and the economy.
The simple fact is that more Americans oppose the Affordable Care Act than support it; while the percentage may change over the next few months, it is doubtful that it will change significantly.
As to the ‘recovery,’ a new poll from Gallup (178,071 respondents), from Real Clear Politics:
While most states’ economic confidence showed some improvement in 2013, only the District of Columbia had an overall positive outlook, according to data from Gallup. West Virginia remained the least economically optimistic state.
While every state had an overall negative Economic Confidence Index number, the District of Columbia’s was plus-19. Massachusetts and Minnesota rounded out the top three, with minus-1 and minus-2 ratings, respectively. In West Virginia, the least optimistic state, the index score fell to minus-44, down from minus-42. Alaska had the second-lowest score: minus-32.
(The Gallup Economic Confidence Index is a composite of Americans’ opinions about the current state of the economy and its direction.)
In not one state out of fifty do respondents have a positive view of the economy.
Polls show that the top two voter concerns, by far, are healthcare and unemployment; not immigration, not abortion and not the one-percenter’s. This is why candidates, particularly in swing-states, are doing anything to disassociate themselves from President Obama; unfortunately for many of them, they can’t erase their voting records or the videotape.
As to the early polls:
Chris may well win Florida.
Hagan (D) is in serious trouble in NC- and polls show that this is true against any GOP candidate. She has already resorted to running against the Koch brothers.
Pryor (D) is gone in Arkansas. Very little hope- likely GOP pickup.
If it were a presidential election year, Landreau D-LA) could survive; but, it’s not. Likely GOP pickup.
Begich (D) in Alaska is 50/50, at best, to hold his seat. Remember, Alaskans have a very unfavorable view on the economy. Possible GOP gain.
The newly-appointed Walsh (D-MT) will be vulnerable. Possible GOP gain.
Johnson (D-SD) is retiring; this is a consensus GOP pickup.
Rockefeller (D-WV) is retiring; the numbers are bad for the Dems in this state, on energy, healthcare and the economy. Likely GOP.
It is my guess that Scott Brown will run in NH. Brown will bear the burden of the ‘carpetbagger’ charge, but Shaheen will be shackled with her Obamacare vote. Head-to-head, there’s a good chance that the energetic Brown can overcome the bland and uninspiring incumbent in NH. Possible GOP pickup
Amazingly, polls show that Terri Land (R-MI) has a decent shot at the retiring Levin’s seat. As of now, she leads all of the Democrat field. Time will tell, but at this point, possible GOP pickup.
In Virginia, I think Warner (D) is safe. Democrat hold.
In Georgia, the Dems have a shot at the retiring Chambliss’ seat…but just a shot. Likely GOP hold.
Candidate for governor, Wendy Davis, has no hope in Texas, despite her new-found support for open-carry firearms. Her claim to fame has proven to be a fabrication, and her vociferous support for late-term abortion…in Texas…will hardly endear her to moderates in the Lone Star State. Not gonna’ happen.
A lot of people are excited about the possibility of McConnell losing- forget it. And even if he were to lose the primary (unlikely), the GOP will hold the seat because Obama’s numbers are almost as bad in KY as they are in WV.
The Democrats have no shot whatsoever of re-gaining the House.
The rest of the Senate seats I think are status quo.
How Chris Christie used his federal prosecutor position to fund a professorship at Seton Hall. So bad that even the Bush DOJ was worried:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/chris-christies-long-record-of-pushing-boundaries-sparking-controversy/2014/02/10/50111ed4-8db1-11e3-98ab-fe5228217bd1_story.html?hpid=z1
@CL ”The GOP will probably focus of two issues; Obamacare and the economy.”
I hope they do… I really do.
“The GOP will probably focus of two issues; Obamacare and the economy.”
I hope they do… I really do.
They will; surveys show that they are the top-two issues. This is why Democrat candidates facing competitive elections are distancing themselves from Obama. When the president recently visited NC State, Hagan was nowhere to be seen- I suppose she was too busy trying to find the Koch brothers in her soup.
A recent NC poll conducted by Civitas:
Obamacare, 53 oppose, 44 support
Economy, 85% say economy still in recession.
Latest two polls in NC:
PPP (D)…Tillis 43, Hagan 42
Rasmussen…Tillis 47, Hagan 40
“Head-to-head, there’s a good chance that the energetic Brown can overcome the bland and uninspiring incumbent in NH. Possible GOP pickup”
This shows you are reading contaminated numbers and rooting for the GOP. Possible GOP bullshit.
Shaheen is popular in New Hampshire. Brown isn’t popular anywhere. And you clearly know nothing about New Hampshire. It’s not New York; you can’t just move there touting your childhood residency and hope to prevail. Think Liz Cheney in Wyoming and you’ll get the picture.
Likewise, your blithe claim that Obamacare numbers won’t change is belied by the actual data already on record, which shows a fair amount of movement in month-to-month polling. The only thing that’s accurate in your portrayal is the total number saying they don’t like Obamacare. As always, when polled on individual components, people approve of all but the mandate.
Republicans probably will retake the Senate, but it has nothing to do with your “analysis” of any actual data.
And those “competitive elections” you cite should be more accurately stated as “incumbent Democrats in red states.”
Awesome — here we find Geezer demonstrating that is it Camptown Lady here who is living an (intellectual, at least) existence without rules and where objective truth is meaningless.
In other words, that Camptown is full of shit.
How very postmodern of him!
“Hagan (D) is in serious trouble in NC- and polls show that this is true against any GOP candidate. She has already resorted to running against the Koch brothers.”
Right. She’s behind in the PPP poll by one point. And I think you’ll find quite a few people running against the Koch brothers, as most people with any affection for democracy don’t take kindly to a couple of parasites buying state legislatures across the country.
“Begich (D) in Alaska is 50/50, at best, to hold his seat. Remember, Alaskans have a very unfavorable view on the economy. Possible GOP gain.”
Only Republicans blame Obama for the economy. Everyone else realizes that it’s the GOP that is to blame by blocking recovery. Even Alaskans, apparently — or I should say, apparent to anyone who could actually read the post first.
Seriously, this is the kind of bullshit that comes from listening to and believing anything a conservative has to say.
One last thing: The real problem with running on Obamacare is that very few people have suffered any losses from it. Constant conservative cant aside, opposition is going to fade over time, because only the Fox/Limbaugh listeners will hear the message, and they already will vote R.
Geezer, Do you think that we are getting very close to a point when Democrats running for office can openly say Republicans ARE the problem?
Dem candidates have been cowed by the media into thinking that need to appear to be “above partisanship” but it is getting difficult for everyone to continue to ignore the big stinking elephant in the room.
“In Georgia, the Dems have a shot at the retiring Chambliss’ seat…but just a shot. Likely GOP hold.”
Sort of depends on what flavor of wingnut wins the primary. Considering that they all are trying to stake out the furthest position on the right, Democrats have a chance, particularly if they nominate a woman.
In Kentucky, Turtle Boy trails in almost all the polls, even though the really nasty Tea Party ads against him have hardly begun.
Anyone who thinks elections are determined only by the economy should realize that, until 1992, the link between a poor economy and incumbent difficulty was something insiders knew but the public didn’t. That fact has been behind the entire Republican effort to discredit Obama on the economy. If it still worked, we’d be talking about President Romney’s re-election chances.
Once the public knows how the magician makes the rabbit appear, there’s not much future in pulling rabbits out of hats.
The more polls I look up, the more threadbare CL’s original comment. All the Arkansas polls that have Cotton ahead are Republican polls — you know, the guys who “unskewed” the 2012 polls and showed Mitt would win. The last PPP poll, in December, had them tied.
Seriously, the Dems are unlikely to hold the Senate. But they’re also likely to regain it in 2016, when Republicans will have to defend 24 seats against the Democrats’ 10. Just as many Dems won in red states in ’08, many Republicans won in blue states in ’10.
The main practical drawback to losing control of the Senate is that Obama will get no appointments approved during his last two years. President Hillary Clinton will be able to make up for that.
” Do you think that we are getting very close to a point when Democrats running for office can openly say Republicans ARE the problem? ”
I don’t want them to be. We really, really need them, but you gotta tell it like it is. Responsible Republicans are scared of the evangelical creationism, biblical literalist, pseudo-Christians who have gotten so whack a doodle that I’m not sure they can ever recover. Yes, Republicans are the problem. Hey the Democrats have some whack jobs as well, but somehow they have managed to marginalize them so that the Democrats can focus on being responsible. That’s not to say I agree with everything in their platform, but at least they aren’t trying invade vaginas, bedrooms, and other countries!
I’m on board with the HRC train (provide it leaves the station) for several reasons, one of which is that the far right needs to be penalized and punished. Having a Republican in the White House ought to be anathema to any sane person.
@CL “A recent NC poll conducted by Civitas:
Obamacare, 53 oppose, 44 support”
Conservatives read this and think it’s a winning issue for them. It’s not.
In fact, it will far more likely be their Waterloo.
Don’t forget that a large chunk of that 53% are opposed to Obamacare because it doesn’t go FAR ENOUGH. I’m one of them. Do you think that will make me more likely to vote for a Tea Party yahoo?
But the simple fact is that people don’t want to go back to an era of pre-existing conditions, and medical bankruptcies galore. The GOP has nothing to offer except a crappy system that didn’t work very well. Their new ideas are a total joke, and that’s obvious to most people.
Like I said. I really do hope that the GOP runs on Obamacare!! That would be just fine. The Dems could make some really great ads.
I’m not going to try to address all ten of Geezer’s frantic posts. I guess he never heard the old adage, ‘brevity is the soul of wit.’ So, I’ll head to NH…
Geezer:
You are reading contaminated numbers and rooting for the GOP. Possible GOP bullshit.
Shaheen is popular in New Hampshire. Brown isn’t popular anywhere.
Reality (Courtesy of Politico):
If Scott Brown were running now for Senate in New Hampshire, he’d trail incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen by just 3 points, according to new numbers out Wednesday.
The poll, from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, found Shaheen with 46 percent of the vote, compared with 43 percent for Brown, the former Massachusetts senator who has yet to declare his candidacy in the New Hampshire race. Ten percent of those surveyed said they were undecided.
Shaheen’s approval and disapproval ratings are almost even in the poll: 44 percent approve, 43 percent disapprove and 13 percent said they aren’t sure…
According to Geezer, 44% is ‘popular.’ Gee, this one’s a lock, right? And Brown’s not even in the race yet.
Awesome — here we find Geezer demonstrating that is it Camptown Lady here who is living an (intellectual, at least) existence without rules and where objective truth is meaningless.
What did Geezer ‘demonstrate?’ I posted assessments garnered from polls and surveys, most of which came from the apolitical Real Clear Politics; Geezer posted his opinions.
Well at least he got something right, to wit;
Republicans probably will retake the Senate…
Geezer, I’m sure that cassandra concurs with this brilliant ‘demonstration.’
@CL “… the apolitical Real Clear Politics”
Apolitical??? Don’t you know that RCP is a right wing propaganda site.
Didn’t they get skewed in the last election?
If you want to talk about facts vs. spin, why don’t you note that the headline of that poll is “Shaheen leads all challengers in New Hampshire”? And why don’t you realize that a guy who hasn’t entered the race is also a guy who hasn’t had any negative ads come out against him yet?
There were 10 posts because each new race I’d look up revealed new bullshit on your part.
Everyone here knows how to use the internet, but not everyone has time to obsess over individual Senate races 9 months out. I merely provided a service by saving everybody else the time of fact-checking your bullshit.
Liberal Elite says:
February 12, 2014 at 12:06 am
@CL “… the apolitical Real Clear Politics”
Apolitical??? Don’t you know that RCP is a right wing propaganda site.
Didn’t they get skewed in the last election?
Huh? Obviously, you’ve never been to the site.
RCP merely compiles polling data, from all sources. They also present the day’s editorials and commentary, usually about sixteen articles, alternating from left and right- from The Nation, AP, National Review, The New Yorker, Wash Times and so forth. It is completely apolitical and they do no polling whatsoever on their own.
RCP
If you want to talk about facts vs. spin, why don’t you note that the headline of that poll is “Shaheen leads all challengers in New Hampshire”?
I figured that since the poll I cited shows Shaheen with a three point lead, people would be able to discern the obvious fact that she “leads.” For now.
In sunny California:
SAN DIEGO – …San Diego becomes the nation’s largest city with a Republican mayor, and Kevin Faulconer will be the only Republican to lead a major city in California, where Democrats hold all statewide offices.
With all precincts reporting, the two-term councilman and former public relations executive led Democratic Councilman David Alvarez by 54.5 percent to 45.5 percent.
Alvarez, 33, congratulated Faulconer late Tuesday, tweeting, “It’s clear that he will be the next Mayor of San Diego. I look forward to working with him.”…
Faulconer’s win comes as the nation’s eighth-largest city turns more
Democratic. President Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 25 percentage points among city voters, and Democrats enjoy a 13-point advantage over Republicans among registered city voters...
A portent? California? In a city that Obama carried by 25 points?
Spin away, my friends, spin away.
San Diego is the most conservative city in California. If you didn’t know that, you’re even stupider than I originally thought.
“San Diego is the most conservative city in California.”
Yep but it’s mostly socially liberal. The economic conservatism comes from the military, military retirees (once you get to San Diego you never leave – although I managed to do so), and military support industries.
But it’s funny that people (such as camptown) are so little informed about the characteristics and demographics of much of the country. I think it’s intentional ignorance resulting from a fear that they will encounter information that contradicts their strongly held beliefs. And preservation of those beliefs are paramount to their existence.
It’s the same thing that Southerners do when they attack the liberal Northeast, all the while ignoring the fact that the most conservative state in the nation – Mississippi, is sucking at the teat of the taxpayer to the tune of $1.77 for every $1 it sends to Washington.
@CL “Huh? Obviously, you’ve never been to the site.”
Actually, it’s one of my regular reads.
Obviously, you’ve never read their editorials. And for some reason, you’re oblivious to their rather obvious slant on things in their selection of articles.
San Diego is the most conservative city in California. If you didn’t know that, you’re even stupider than I originally thought.…Wheezer
So what? From the article:
Democrats enjoy a 13-point advantage over Republicans among registered city voters..
That’s a 13-point advantage. So, who’s stupid?
Today, NC… PPP (D) poll:
Tillis 42..Hagan 40
Brannon 43…Hagan 40
Grant 41…Hagan 39
Alexander 45…Hagan 38
Harris 42…Hagan 40