First Read reports on the Texas party primaries last night (which are as ridiculously early as Delaware’s are ridiculously late):
“Yet if the GOP establishment largely won the battle last night, the Tea Party has already won the war. Every Republican running for office — up and down the ballot — did so by running hard to the right and hard against President Obama (even in races that have nothing to do with the president)… And in another example of how the Tea Party has already won the war, just check out the tweet that Sen. Lindsey Graham — another establishment Republican facing a Tea Party primary field this year — fired off yesterday regarding the situation in Ukraine: ‘It started with Benghazi. When you kill Americans and nobody pays a price, you invite this type of aggression.'”
“Bottom line: Establishment Republicans have figured out how to survive (for the most part) in these primaries, but the question is whether this has been good for the party in the long run.”
Let me give you a hint: it will doom them in national elections, it will guarantee a Ted Cruz or Rand Paul nomination, and will result in a 400 electoral vote landslide by President Hillary Clinton. Now, some would say that is bad for the party. I disagree. I think Republicans love their base to be outraged so that they can be bilked. Nothing better for that than 16 years of Democratic control of the White House.
Meanwhile, as I mentioned yesterday, the one major legacy of the Presidency of George W. Bush was to eliminate the moral standing of the United States with respect to preemptive wars. Whenever President Obama and Secretary Kerry say that Russia has no right to invade a foreign country unprovoked, everyone guffaws a little bit thinking back to President Bush’s unprovoked invasion of Iraq. The second major legacy of perpetual war during the Bush presidency, indeed, the excitement and longing for war by admitted war pigs like Rumsfeld, Cheney and Wolfowitz; has turned Americans off to war and military force. A new poll from You Gov shows that Americans have little appetite for any involvement in Ukraine. So perhaps John McCain can shut up now.
Less than a third of Americans (30%) think that what is going on in Ukraine is the world’s business. Only 18% say that the US has any responsibility to protect Ukraine, while 46% say that the US does not. Support for helping to protect Ukraine is higher among Republicans (26%) than among Democrats (13%) but just under half of both groups say that the US has no responsibility to defend Ukraine.
NATIONAL–MARRIAGE EQUALITY—Washington Post-ABC News: 50% of Americans say the U.S. Constitution’s guarantee of equal protection gives gays the right to marry, while 41% say it does not.
Beyond the constitutional questions, a record-high 59% say they support same-sex marriage, while 34% are opposed, the widest margin tracked in Post-ABC polling.
I love polling discrepancies sometimes. From this poll, the results reveal that 7 to 9% support gay marriage but think it is unconstitutional. That’s odd.
CONNECTICUT–GOVERNOR–Quinnipiac poll: Gov. Dannel Malloy (D) 43, Tom Foley (R) 42.
MINNESOTA–U.S. SENATE–Survey USA poll: Sen. Al Franken’s (D) 49, Julianne Ortman (R) 41; Franken 49, Chris Dahlberg (R) 41; Franken 50, Mike McFadden (R) 40.
ARIZONA–MARRIAGE EQUALITY—PPP: 49% support gay marriage, 41% do not.
VIRGINIA–U.S. SENATE–Roanoke College poll: Sen. Mark Warner (D) 56, Ed Gillespie (R) 29.