A Real DL Poll?
We recently inquired about the cost of conducting a regular and scientific poll concerning the job approval of several state wide state officials and our congressional delegation as well as our upcoming contested statewide races in 2014. The cost is something that is doable if we a legitimate fundraiser for it. If you are an avid Delaware Liberal reader, commenter or lurker, or a raging Delaware politico, would you be willing to donate $25.00 towards getting some real polling results here in the Small Wonder? Take the poll…
Yes. Although I’m assuming there would be open discussion of questions and subjects beforehand, although I’m comfortable with final decisions being up to the bloggers here.
I would rather spend money on beer. Statewide races are a waste of poll money because one already knows what the story is there…. Now, to get insight into a local race, such as Miro’s district, or Lavelle’s, or Paradee’s, or Deaver’s down south, would be well worth more than beer…
Short answer; local races yeah!!. State races no.
Do you think things have changed much since October?
http://blogs.delawareonline.com/firststatepolitics/2013/10/25/beau-biden-tops-in-popularity-contest-ud-poll/
I don’t really see the point in us commissioning polls.
Local races are fascinating, but polling is done by those candidates in many cases.
If the candidates do a crappy job of polling/planning, I’m not sure what we could add to that. Maybe it would’ve helped a Mitch Crane, but I doubt it. Candidates tend to listen to their advisors, even when Richard Korn is one of them, and dismiss info coming from outside their camps.
The online polls are fun, but only if one doesn’t draw any type of serious conclusion from them. Not only is it pretty obvious when a poll is being freeped, but the (unfreeped) polls largely reflect the general consensus of the bloggers and commenters.
In other words, fun to talk about, not to be taken seriously.
There are proposals for two different types of polls in the post: one for job approval, another for candidate preference.
Yes. The general public has access to so few polls it’s hard to assess public opinion. El Som’s right that the candidates and insiders have them, but that doesn’t help anyone other than them.
I would suggest a mostly issues-based approach, with a few statewide candidate Qs thrown in. It would help everyone to know residents’ views on LGBT rights, gun violence, gas and water taxes, charter schools, etc. The results could give cover to legislators on the edge.
Something that tracked candidates and issues over time would be newsworthy and could help shape some news coverage and legislative sentiment.
A good statewide poll for all of the statewides would cost, at least, 20 – 30k. To break it down by our rather small State House and Senate Districts, it could cost even more. Ha! Good luck with that.
I agree that issue based polling can be quite useful – these kinds of tools are used all the time by non-profit groups lobbying legislators on salient issues. It’s a well known fact that representatives over-estimate how conservative their districts are, and while they might look quite skeptically at something put out by a blog with a liberal slant, it would be better than simply judging from the 50-100 people that call in to voice their opinions.
lol… But PainesMe, you assume 2 things….
1. That the polling will show that Delawareans are as liberal as this blog’s contributors. What if it backfires and shows that the public actually wants bipartisanship and a balanced approach. That would explain why the electorate continues to vote for the types of Democrats that this blog dislikes.
2. That the delegation and the Governor don’t already have numbers showing that they are doing exactly what the public is looking for them to do.
Cobain –
I’m guessing that you’re more toward the right end of the spectrum, since you assume that any evidence that contradicts our initially held beliefs is bad evidence. Fortunately, for the more enlightened among us, knowing where we stand in relation to the public is always a good thing. I’m almost hesitant to expand on this, like it’d be giving away a secret progressive tactic, but the conclusions are fairly self-evident, no?
1. If your scenario is true and the poll “backfires” by showing us that the state is not as left-leaning as we believe, that’s hugely important for our community to know. Then it becomes a “persuasion” game rather than a “turnout” game. If, on the other hand, it comes back and shows us what is true nationally – that people support a higher minimum wage, progressive tax systems, medical/recreational marijuana, marriage equality, equal pay, etc – we know that we have a very different problem that requires a different solution. Useful.
2. If the delegation is looking at the same numbers that we are and not releasing them, then they aren’t releasing them because it’s bad for the delegation. As an blog that seeks to push this delegation in a new direction, bad numbers for them are the best kind of numbers. Unless said numbers are bad for us too, in which case, see number one. In any case, with the possible exception of Coons, I wouldn’t say any of their shops are particularly data driven so I’d be surprised if any of them had regular issue polling.
More information is never a bad thing. It concerns me that you can ballpark the cost of a fairly involved poll, but only see value in polls that come back in the affirmative; though considering my earlier guess about your partisanship maybe it shouldn’t concern me too much.