Thursday Open Thread [3.27.14]

First Read on how the Republicans may have a flawed campaign strategy:

“Right now, Republicans’ strategy for the midterm elections is simple: Obamacare, Obamacare, Obamacare. And the strategy makes sense given the law’s overall unpopularity and the largely red-state playing field in the midterms. But is there a point at which the Obamacare-all-the-time playbook yields diminishing returns? According to a health-care tracking poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation, 53% of all respondents — including 51% of independents and even 47% of Republicans — said they are tired about hearing the debate over the health-care law and think the country should focus on other issues.”

“It will be interesting to track similar polling over the next few months. Still, the law remains pretty unpopular; the same poll shows 46% holding an unfavorable view of it, versus 38% with a favorable view (but that’s an improvement from January, when it was 50% unfavorable, 34% favorable).”

Especially when they have no alternative to replace it. Especially when the law is working, which in turn will increase its popularity. Especially when the Democrats will be running on a popular message.

“Democrats are betting on a message of income inequality, which the poll shows is popular with voters. In the survey, Democrats lead Republicans when it comes to voters’ confidence that they’ll stand up for the middle class, 54% to 36%, and on representing middle class values, 52% to 39%.”

More on that Kaiser Family Foundation poll:

That is 59% who want to either keep the law as is or keep it and improve it. Only 29% want it repealed. With such a number, and their entire midterm campaign based on repeal of Obamacare, the GOP has to hope that only those 29% turn out to vote. Which, given the typical midterm demographics, is not that bad of a bet.
VIRGINIA–US SENATE–Quinnipiac: Sen. Mark Warner (D) 46, Ed Gillespie (R) 31, Robert Sarvis (L) 6.
CALIFORNIA–GOVERNOR–Public Policy Institute of California: Gov. Jerry Brown (D) 47, Tim Donnelly (R) 10%, Neel Kashkari (R) 2, Andrew Blount (R) 2. California has an open all party primary, so Brown and all of his Republican opponents will be running in the same primary, with the top two winners running in the general.