The thesis at the heart of all my recent posts has been that “attracted” voters are inherently more valuable to a campaign than “chased” voters. I look at recent history and see the lackluster performance of Democrats during midterm elections, and mentally discount a chased voter to some fraction of a voter while I mentally add a premium to attracted voters.
So, let’s say each voter that the DNC manages to frighten into thinking about voting is worth .95 eventual votes and every teabag that is inspired by the teabag nonsense is worth 1.05 future votes. On election day a vote is a vote, but over the course of a campaign the marginal difference between the chased and the attracted must add up. Right?
Before anyone gets their panties in a twist I will admit that the teabag Republicans run on fear and bile. I’m not saying that it is not a tool in their tool-bag. But, it is their cohesive culture that attracts their voters. They are strident and unapologetic in their beliefs and that certainty is attractive to their voters. Republicans don’t alter their message to suit different constituencies, and that puts a gloss of integrity on their lunatic ravings.
Democrats, on the other hand, are unable or unwilling to articulate any core values. As I said in recent posts, they don’t have a brand that makes sense to voters. Therefor they are left trying to cut ham-fisted deals with a range of constituencies. (Al Gore’s Pandering to Florida’s Cuban voters over Elian Gonzales comes to mind as an especially sickening case of this.)
In addition to pandering, Democrats try to frighten voters with the fact that a Republican might win. While this position has lost time and again, it is regarded as a legitimate strategy among the Dems insider consultants. I only need look at my own voting to know that my voter value is discounted heavily if this is the message I’m begin asked to support.
Of course, I’m strange. I’m Probably an outlier. So I’d love to hear from the political scientists in our midst. What is the discount rate for chased? What is the true premium on attracted? Or is this all nonsense and I should go back to trusting the Democrats in spite of their horrible record of failure.