Friday Open Thread [4.11.14]

LOL. The House Conservatives are planning a coup against Boner again. From the National Journal:

“The conservatives’ exasperation with leadership is well known. And now, in discreet dinners at the Capitol Hill Club and in winding, hypothetical-laced email chains, they’re trying to figure out what to do about it. Some say it’s enough to coalesce behind–and start whipping votes for–a single conservative leadership candidate. Others want to cut a deal with Majority Leader Eric Cantor: We’ll back you for speaker if you promise to bring aboard a conservative lieutenant.” “But there’s a more audacious option on the table, according to conservatives involved in the deliberations. They say between 40 and 50 members have already committed verbally to electing a new speaker. If those numbers hold, organizers say, they could force Boehner to step aside as speaker in late November, when the incoming GOP conference meets for the first time, by showing him that he won’t have the votes to be reelected in January.”

This reminds me of a time back in 1994, when it was announced that Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell (D) was going to retire from the Senate. I remember reading stories in the Washington Post about the race to succeed Mitchell (well actually I found a link to a story in the New York Times, but whatever) between former Senators Jim Sasser and Tom Daschle. No where did the articles and speculation consider that, um, what if we are no in the majority next year? Teabaggin efforts to oust Boehner would be quite misplaced if the GOP ends up losing the majority. And yes, that can happen. Markos:

If Democrats win the House popular vote by six points, they’d have a 50/50 chance to win back the chamber. To virtually guarantee a Speaker Nancy Pelosi, we’d have to win the House popular vote by nine points. That’s the power of the GOP’s gerrymander.

[A new Google Consumer Survey] gives Democrats a seven-point lead, giving us a better than even chance to retake the chamber.

I think this poll is a suspicious outlier. Other generic ballot polling is closer that this one, more in the 3-5 Dem lead area. Not enough to win back the chamber yet, but within striking distance if the Dems stick to a positive message of Keep and Fix and Fighting Economic Inequality, while the GOP has nothing but ‘repeal repeal repeal’ and ‘no women are not paid less.’ Here are two other polls that I think are clear outliers:

ARKANSAS–US SENATE–Opinion Research Associates: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 48, Rep. Tom Cotton (R) 38
WISCONSIN–GOVERNOR–St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio: Gov. Scott Walker (R) 56, Mary Burke (D) 40

I don’t doubt that Walker is ahead in Wisconsin. But not by 16 points. 3-5 maybe. That is what all the other polls say. So until a Walker landslide is seen by other polls, treat this one as an outlier. Same goes for Pryor. All prior (no pun) polls show him barely ahead of, or in some polls trailing, the Republican Cotton. Indeed, it is one of the races that nearly everyone expects the GOP to pick up this fall. And now he has a 10 point lead? Yeah, as much as I want to believe it, no dice.

RHODE ISLAND–GOVERNOR–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–Brown University: Gina Raimondo (D) 29, Angel Taveras (D) 26, Clay Pell (D) 10 and 35% still undecided.

IOWA–US SENATE–Suffolk University: Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) 38, Sam Clovis (R) 25; Braley (D) 38, Joni Ernst (R) 30; Braley (D) 37, Mark Jacobs 31; Braley (D) 38, Scott Schaben (R) 25; Braley (D) 38, Matt Whitaker (R) 27.

IOWA–US SENATE–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Suffolk University: Joni Ernst (R) 25, Mark Jacobs (R) 23. Clovis, Schaben and Whitaker are in the single digits.

NEW HAMPSHIRE–US SENATE–Public Policy Polling: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49, Former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown (R) 41.

NORTH CAROLINA–US SENATE–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–American Crossroads: Thom Tillis (R) 27, Greg Brannon (R) 16, Mark Harris 10. Tillis is the candidate we all want to win, because Hagan likely beats him.