Tuesday Open Thread [4.22.14]

Happy Earth Day. National Geographic gives us the history of Earth Day:

Earth Day began in 1970, when 20 million people across the United States—that’s one in ten—rallied for increased protection of the environment.

“It was really an eye-opening experience for me,” Gina McCarthy, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency administrator, who was a self-described self-centered teenager during the first Earth Day rallies, told National Geographic. (See pictures: “The First Earth Day—Bell-Bottoms and Gas Masks.”)

“Not only were people trying to influence decisions on the Vietnam War,” she recalled, “but they were beginning to really focus attention on issues like air pollution, the contamination they were seeing in the land, and the need for federal action.”

In response to this, Richard Nixon actually did a good thing. Indeed, it may have been the last liberal/progressive thing a Republican President has done. They passed the Clean Air and Water Act and established the EPA.

Nate Cohn:

“Democrats’ hopes of keeping their Senate majority this November may well hinge on the ability of three of their incumbents to hold onto their seats deep in enemy territory: the South. To take the Senate and consolidate their control of Congress, Republicans need only extend their stranglehold on Dixie to Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina, all of which voted for Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election.”

“Yet the hopes of these three states’ incumbent Democratic senators — Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu and Kay Hagan — are still alive. That may be surprising in light of the region’s lurch to the right, but it shouldn’t be: Incumbency is powerful. In the South, Democratic incumbents have won 85 percent of the time since 1990, and 77 percent since 2000.”

Well, the GOP needs to win six seats. Not three. But Nate is right, all three of these southern Democrats are doing well. Yes, they are vulnerable and could be defeated, but I bet that not only do all three survive, but the Dems actually win in Kentucky or Georgia (maybe both).

Counterintuitive but true: In HuffPollster's averages, GOP not leading in a single Senate race: http://t.co/voGg4rAI6O

— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) April 17, 2014

Indeed, even the prognosticators are seeing things less horribly for the Dems:

Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics is correct to state that the Dems could actually gain seats this fall. Right now we have 55. The Republicans have 45. To win the majority, Republicans would need six seats. Trende:

The first thing that would have to happen [for Dems to gain seats] is that the playing field would have to improve for Democrats. Of the 11 Democratic seats that RCP currently rates as leans Democratic or worse, Democrats are probably at least slightly favored in Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and perhaps Colorado. If the political dynamic were to shift toward the party, these seats would probably be out of the GOP’s reach on Election Day.

The way this could occur is fairly straightforward: The Affordable Care Act improves; there’s no massive rate shock for premiums in September or October; and the economy slowly gains ground. This should propel President Obama’s job approval upward, lifting the collective Democratic boat.

Guess what? All of this is happening. The ACA has improved and it is working, in fact it is working BETTER than expected. As a result, there will likely be no rate shock premiums in September or October. The economy continues to slowly gain ground.

With all that in mind, with Democrats running in blue states on Obamcare already, it is safe to say that no blue state will elect a Republican Senator this fall. That means Oregon, Colorado, Michigan, Iowa and New Hampshire will all stay blue.

So what remains of the competitive seats:

North Carolina–Kay Hagan is going to win.
Alaska–So is Mark Begich.
Arkansas–Pryor is amazingly ahead in the polling.
Louisiana–So is Landrieu.
South Dakota–Here is the one GOP pickup that is pretty much locked down.
Montana–the state that elects Democrats Schweitzer and Tester in midterm years may just stay Democratic with Walsh.
West Virginia–This state should go to the GOP, as they finally have their star candidate in Moore-Capito. But WV is funny with its Democrats, so do not be surprised if Tennant pulls this out.
Kentucky–McConnell is losing to Grimes.
Georgia–Nunn will defeat whatever nutjob emerges from the GOP primary.

So if everything goes as I expect right now, the Dems maintain their 55 seat majority. Trende predicts doom for the GOP if this occurs:

If this scenario were to occur, it would have truly dire consequences for the Republican Party. In fact, if Republicans only gained a seat or two it would be a disaster for them. The intra-party split would be the last thing the GOP needed heading into the 2016 presidential elections, especially since the playing field then is absolutely brutal for them. As I’ve noted, if Republicans don’t manage to win at least some seats this cycle, it would probably be a 50-50 proposition whether Democrats would win a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate in that cycle, and the House majority isn’t as invulnerable as many analysts seem to think. If 2014 goes south for the GOP, 2017 could look like 2009 all over again for the party.

MARYLAND–GOVERNOR–DEMOCRATIC PARTY–St. Marys College: Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown (D) 27, Attorney General Doug Gansler (D) 11, St. Sen. Heather Mizuer (D) 8.

MARYLAND–GOVERNOR–REPUBLICAN PARTY–St. Marys College: Larry Hogan (R) 16, David Craig (R) 8%, Ron George (R) at 4% and Charles Lollar (R) at 4%.