How Cantor’s Loss Affects the Republican Party
Well, I think I’m about as stunned as anyone right now. House Majority leader Eric Cantor lost his primary by 10 percent tonight after polls had clearly shown him leading by double digits for weeks. Eric Cantor has been widely regarded as John Boehner’s replacement for leader of the Republican party in the house, and likely the next speaker should they hold their majority in November and Boehner resign (as some have begun to believe he may).
It’s truly going to be fascinating to see how this shakes up the Republican leaders in the House, as surely there’s going to be a competitive race for Majority Whip (assuming Kevin McCarthy steps up and runs for Majority Leader, which GOP sources have said he will to multiple news sources). I’ve already read several articles on who the media believes may run for Whip, and it’s pretty clear there’s no real consensus as to who is “up next”, which means we’ll get a fascinating leadership battle. Politico had a good list of potential candidates if you’re interested. Hopefully we can get you a good look at the race within a couple of days, it really depends on who shows interest, which could be a wide array of republicans.
It’s also going to be interesting to see if Boehner changes his plans for the future based on the loss of his right-hand man. The rumor of his possible resignation from the speakership this year has already been widely circulated, but this could prove to be an interesting addition to his decision.
In terms of policy, it’s likely immigration reform just died, which is fantastic (sarcasm). Not like I expected much to happen there anyways… But Cantor was the only person in the Republican leadership who even considered a deal, which ultimately contributed to the loss of his seat to Brat. On top of immigration reform, Cantor was also in charge of putting together the Republican’s healthcare counter-proposals, so it’ll be interesting to see who takes the lead there and how that will effect the organization.
Anyways, I’m sure we’ll have much more out about this as the new race for the leadership begins, but this is truly just fascinating to me. I’m of course disappointed in our dead immigration reform prospects, but this is just one big shock tonight for everyone. Apparently Eric Cantor was too moderate for today’s Republican party. Hopefully Virginia’s 7th District will elect a Democrat, though it hasn’t since 1971. I’m sure Brat is having a great campaign victory party tonight. Congratulations to another tea-partier in Washington.
Tags: Eric Cantor, Leadership, Republicans
Dead immigration reform as policy = live immigration reform as a campaign issue. This will benefit Democrats in 2016. I’m not cheering the loss of potentially good policy, but from a practical level the continued Republican fratricide is helpful in the long game.
U of V’s political eminence gris, Larry Sabato, seems to think that the GOP civil war that we all thought was over (because the tea bags won) isn’t over.
It makes sense, because the tea bags are reflexively combative. It is in the DNA of the movement to fight moderates. So there is no end to the fight as far as they are concerned. “Establishment” Republicans can never give them enough for them to say “Okay, let’s all now work together.”
Anyway, I hope he is right and this GOP civil war keeps getting bloodier.
Since Tea Partiers are incapable of governing they have to keep fighting. In a few years Brat won’t be conservative enough.
The more I read about this, the more it looks like immigration reform, or “Amnesty” as the Republicans call it, is the new electrified third rail of conservative politics. Talk about it and you die. Their Fox News & talk radio overlords will see to it.
So I guess DD’s observation from last night is pretty spot on. This pretty much energizes and locks in the Latino vote for the Dems and assures Democratic Presidents for the foreseeable future. Of course, the Dems have never held an advantage that they couldn’t wait to give away.
It is Democrats who have unfortunately made immigration reform synonymous with amnesty. There is plenty of immigration reform that can and should be done without amnesty, but that is unthinkable for its advocates. In fact that is what the term comprehensive immigration reform means – “if we can’t have amnesty, we’re not doing anything.” Although I am always happy to see Republicans in an electoral pickle.
How much of Cantor’s defeat can be attributed to Virginia’s open primary system? Read anecdotal news stories about democrats working and voting for Brat. Not discounting the Tea Party’s influence but was it amplified by opportunistic democrats?
I can hear it now: “I’m no warlock.” The Brat-worst platform. O’Donnell/Brat 2016
The open primary hasn’t come up in anything I’ve read other then DD’s mentioning of it here.
Washington Post article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/06/11/did-democratic-votes-doom-eric-cantor/
It doesn’t look like (so far) that Cantor’s loss was due to Dems. The post you linked to, ATIAM, was updated. (Probably wasn’t updated when you posted.)
Cantor’s suck-ass pollsters seem to be the only ones pushing the Dem crossover theory.
Agreed, J. I think it’s more likely that nobody liked Cantor. He didn’t appeal to “moderate” Republicans (who probably stayed home) – because he catered to the Tea Party, and everyone is over all the “wink, wink. I’m not really crazy” nonsense – and he didn’t appeal to the Tea Party because they saw the winks.
This is Republican on Republican crime.
I beg you….learn the difference between “effects” and “affects”
Confession time: I actually look up effect/affect often. It’s a blind spot with me.
Different theory: In a gerrymandered district, chock full of very conservative republicans, there simply wasn’t enough moderate ballast to counterbalance a shift of the rocks when the majority went further to the right.
Just a thought
That’s my stupid fault. I wrote this late and didn’t even think about it, sorry. It should be affects.
Notable that Brat received no national Tea Party help.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/tea-party-groups-that-offered-dave-brat-zero-support-sure-are-thrilled-he-defeated-eric-cantor/article/2549568