Futures Market Hadicapping of the Statewide Races – Update July 23rd
Not much action in the trading markets as most serious traders are summering in the Hamptons and nobody has punched a baby… yet. These are last night’s closing prices. Put your buy and sell orders in the comments section. For the time being I’m going to assume that a buy order for one candidate at a given price is matched by a sell order on their opponent.
Senate: Chris Coons 0.98 – Kevin Wade 0.01 – Carl Smink 0.01
House: John Carney 0.99 – Rose Izzo 0.01
Attorney General: Matt Denn 0.93 – Ted Kittila 0.07
Treasurer: Chip Flowers 0.39 – Sean Barney 0.37 – Ken Simpler 0.17 – Sher Valenzuela 0.08
Auditor: Brenda Mayrack 0.43 – Ken Matlusky 0.08 – Tom Wagner 0.47
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Imagine you could buy shares of the statewide candidates. After the election winners would pay out $1.00 per share – losing positions would pay zero. So if you buy a share of Kevin Wade, say, for $0.01 (one penny) would you do it? Are “Smooth like Suede’s” chances better than 1%? Is that a good bet?
Anyway, when you have a lot of buyers and sellers with fairly decent knowledge of the markets, the truth appears to emerge from these types of transactions. Futures markets are good predictors of political outcomes. So let’s get it rolling.
These are last night’s closing prices. Put your buy and sell orders in the comments section and I’ll up this for as long as it remains interesting to me.
Senate: Chris Coons 0.98 – Kevin Wade 0.01 – Carl Smink 0.01
House: John Carney 0.99 – Rose Izzo 0.01
Attorney General: Matt Denn 0.93 – Ted Kittila 0.07
Treasurer: Chip Flowers 0.40 – Sean Barney 0.35 – Ken Simpler 0.15 – Sher Valenzuela 0.10
Auditor: Brenda Mayrack 0.41 – Ken Matlusky 0.08 – Tom Wagner 0.49
Smooth as Suede, for a penny. Is it ‘shiney new’ ?
Can we get the alternative parties listed too?
Generally a good chart except that Simpler is undervalued. If Chip wins his primary, Simpler wins the general.
Can Simpler get votes from the SuxCo Crazies?
I’m selling and John Manifold is buying “Simpler to Win” at 0.15 – It will be booked tonight.
Will – I was thinking about the Greens. I guess I could be convinced to add them in.
If I was a trader, instead of the house – I might take a flyer on Ted Kittila at 0.07 and maybe buy a few shares of Brenda Mayrack at 0.41.
If I put in a buy order for Andrew Groff, Scott Gesty, and David Chandler can we get them listed?
They are probably all going to open at 0.01
That’s way too high, unless the Green is the second candidate in some of those races. In a race with both a D and an R, both would have to drop dead for the Green to win.
.41 on Brenda Mayrack gets my $$’s. Money in my pocket.
If Barney is really at .035, as opposed to .35, I’d bet big. In fact, I’ll put a few shekels on .35 bet as well.
I’m buying both.
You can open them wherever you like, my bid stands.
Your trades will be booked tonight.
El Som – thanks. Fixed.
Buy Mayrack at .54
Buy Flowers at .44
I’ll buy a combo pack – Flowers at .40 and Barney at .35.
Ooops I meant .39 and .37.
Plunkin’ down more $$’s on Mayrack.
As long as her price is more attractive than Wagner’s, it’s stealin’.
Greens cost us the 2000 Florida race and thus the general election and the Delaware AG’s office in 2002. Screw them. Thanks Nader for the Iraq war.
Pluribus – I don’t think a bid 10 cents over the last close is going to move the price much.
Nader Sucks – I’m still steamed about that too. (Although you have to admit Gore ran a shit-ass campaign.)
SCOTUS cost us the Florida race. Being a “low-life” in the “highest” court will never elevate these types from the primordial slime that they choose to render judgement from.
John Kowalko
Mayrack Mayrack Mayrack. I’ll buy. Like actually money. You have her way undervalued. Barney too, look at the little poll. Two incumbents go down. Mark the tape.
i would buy simpler at that price. a lot of it.
Mayrack has some room for a price increase, but with a primary (of sorts) and facing an incumbent, I don’t see her stock rising that fast.
Salty – I’ll book your Simpler trade. He is way undervalued if you think Flowers is going to be the Dem.
Am I the only one confused with how this works?
It is pretend money. If you see someone that you think is undervalued (that can either win his/her race or trade for a higher amount closer to the election) you can “buy” a share of that person by putting a buy order in the comments section. If I get a lot of buy orders it will move the daily closing price by some number generated by the home office in Kansas City.
Since it is pretend money it isn’t scientific – but actual political futures markets have been better predictors than polls. The fact that people have a profit motive for buying and selling clears their mind of sentimentality and wishful thinking.