Monday Open Thread [8.4.14]
Larry Sabato looks at his Crystal Ball:
“2014 is no 2006. The [2006] electorate had turned off to George W. Bush and would never again turn on. The Iraq War and Hurricane Katrina were two principal reasons. The full Democratic wave emerged in the fall, after some GOP congressional scandals, but even at this point in 2006, we were just debating how high the Democratic tide would rise.”
“2014 is also no 2010. All of the energy was on the Republican side four years ago, as Obamacare bombed, the Tea Party arose, and the poor economy that helped elect Obama lingered. The building GOP wave was so impressive that the Crystal Ball was able to predict a House switch from Democratic to Republican control by Labor Day even though Democrats held about a 75-seat majority at that time.”
No, 2014 will be most like 1998, where the incumbent White House party upends conventional wisdom and picks up seats in one or both Houses of Congress, mostly due to the overreach of the opposition party. And if the GOP goes full bore on impeachment, I am ready to predict that the Democrats will retake the House.
Lloyd Green thinks 2016 will finally be the year that the base prevails over the establishment in regards to the presidential nominee:
“With few exceptions, the Republican establishment prevails over its base. Yet, 2016 may be different, as the GOP becomes ever more evangelical, Southern, blue collar, and alienated. True, the road and rules to the convention favor the Republican machinery, but even so, the rank and file must buy in if the plans of the party’s elite are to work as imagined.”
A very big reason why is that the Establishment has nobody that can win. Jeb Bush? Hahahaha. Chris Christie? Damaged goods now and always unacceptable to the base. It is so bad that the establishment is longing for Willard Mitt Romney again.
“There is a movement afoot… I’d tell him, ‘Governor Romney, people here in Wyoming and around the country would encourage you to take another look at it.'” — Wyoming Gov. Matt Mead (R), urging Mitt Romney to run for president again in 2016. Yes, please proceed Mittens.
Here is some polling that has been backing up over the past week:
HAWAII–SENATOR–Hawaii News Now/Star Advertiser Hawaii poll: Rep. Colleeen Hanabusa (D) 50, Sen. Brian Schatz (D) 42.
HAWAII–SENATOR–Civil Beat: Schatz (D) 49, Hanabusa (D) 41.
WISCONSIN–GOVERNOR–Human Events/Gravis Marketing: Gov. Scott Walker (R) 47, Mary Burke (D) 47.
MASSACHUSETTS–GOVERNOR–Boston Globe: Martha Coakley (D) 42, Charlie Baker (R) 32.
NORTH CAROLINA–SENATOR–A new Gravis Marketing: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 44, Thom Tillis (R) 41.
HAWAII–GOVERNOR–Civil Beat: David Ige (D) 51, Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) 41.
ARKANSAS–SENATOR–Anzalone Liszt Grove: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 48, Rep. Tom Cotton (R) 46.
MICHIGAN–SENATOR–Rasmussen: Gary Peters (D) 45, Terri Lynn Land (R) 39.
GEORGIA–GOVERNOR–Rasmussen: Jason Carter (D) 45, Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 44.
KENTUCKY–SENATOR–Survey USA: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 47, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 45.
CONNECTICUT–GOVERNOR–Anazlone Liszt Grove Research: Gov. Dannel Malloy (D) 46, Tom Foley (R) 46.
GEORGIA–SENATOR–Rasmussen Reports: Michelle Nunn (D) 46, David Perdue (R) 40.
Turnout is going to be abysmal in November. Primary turnout has been abysmal, even worse in runoffs.
Dems aren’t going to take back the House and will be lucky to maintain the edge (if we can even count this as a majority in the age of 60+) in the Senate. Most likely we keep the majority in the Senate but its weaker by 1 or 2 and we chip into the GOP House Majority slightly.
While this impeachment business is great as a DCCC/DNC fundraiser, it will not convince people to vote. There is more apathy right now than in the dozen midterms. Only way turnout could bubble up is if by some miracle a “none of the above” option is added to the ballot throughout the country. Chances of that are, of course, zero.
Jim Brady has passed away: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/former-white-house-press-secretary-james-brady-dead-73-n172236
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Nate Silver is saying the GOP takes the Senate and the House:
Too true. Republican idiots vote in midterms. Democratic idiots stay home. Obama’s last two years will be a nightmare of his own making. Not giving the Democratic base anything to vote FOR continues to be his worst mistake.
Silver pegs odds of GOP taking the Senate at 60%, which looks even more likely as Democrats self-destruct in Montana.
Dems take back house based on what accomplishments? 45 million on food stamps, lowest labor participation rate in 38 years, 17 trillion in debt, disastrous foreign policy. Obamacare a disaster, 116 trillion in underfunded liabilities, 47 million living in poverty. Curious just what has been accomplished in 6 years whether economic or in foreign policy that warrants Dem taking back the House?
GTW
Even with all that wind at the republican’s back, they will find a way to screw up a free lunch.
The impeachment talk is a good start. Suing the President another good step. All they need is a few Neanderthal republican candidates to explain how scantily women deserve what they get, and even after the women get it they thankfully explain how women can turn off the reproductive machinery.
I predict a close result.
“Curious just what has been accomplished in 6 years whether economic or in foreign policy that warrants Dem taking back the House?”
They won’t, but not because of lack of accomplishments. What have Republicans done in the 6 years that warrants their keeping the House? Most of the situations you cite are the fault of Republicans, not Democrats. Nobody believes Republican/conservative bullshit any more except the people spewing it in the first place.
After a flaky first term, Democrats succeeded in rolling back most of the Bush tax cuts and keeping them from becoming permanent. That to me is the single biggest accomplishment worthy of re-election.
Brilliant: https://twitter.com/BillWeirCNN/statuses/494670062092296192