El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em All For You
This column will self-destruct sometime around 9 p.m. next Tuesday. Or perhaps Saturday, according to Dave Tackett’s latest mailer (seriously, he has the wrong day for the primary on his mailer.) Time to pick the primary winners (and losers).
US Senate (R): While the Rethugs deserve Carl Smink, aka ‘God’s Candidate’, they’ll get Kevin Wade, Suede’s Candidate, instead. Come to think of it, the Rethugs also deserve Kevin Wade (paging Jason 330). Wade, 62-38.
State Treasurer (R): We couldn’t have something easier here? Yeah, yeah, I hear about straw polls, I hear how the R’s have learned their lessons from Christine O’Donnell. I see that ‘responsible’ Sussex R’s (Oxy-moron Alert) are pushing the Chamber’s guy. Ain’t buying it. Here’s why. On the day that she entered the race for better or worse, Cheryl Valenzuela had better name recognition than Ken Simpler. She got 37% vs. Matt Denn, which is pretty respectable. Most of the hotly-contested primaries on the R side are downstate. Even though Simpler has Sussex ties, Valenzuela is the mouth-breathers’ type of candidate, and they’ll be voting in disproportionate numbers. Many R’s who would have voted for Simpler are now D’s, and many of those who remain R’s are old and devoid of energy. Simpler deserves to win, but I don’t think he will. Valenzuela, 52-48. Hope I’m wrong on this one. So does Mike Castle.
State Auditor (D): Brenda Mayrack easily handles Ken Matlusky, a nice guy who should find something else to do with his time. Mayrack, 65-35.
State Senator-SD 3 (D): Bob Marshall is one of my favorite senators and people. He’s in a competitive primary with City Councilperson Sherry Walker Dorsey. The 3rd SD has traditionally been one of the most racially- and ethnically-diverse districts in the state. Dorsey has potential, but Marshall has been a unifying presence, with special strength in the Latino community, the senior high rises, what remains of the white ethnic neighborhoods and, of course, with labor and other traditionally D constituencies. I’m going Marshall, 60-40.
State Senator-SD 11 (D): Even with pretty good name recognition, it’s hard to win a D primary against a popular incumbent when your ideological base resides within a right-wing evangelical church. Bryan Townsend gives Dave Tackett a well-deserved whooping, I mean whoooping, 62-38. (Memo to Dave: Next time, try Spell Check. Despite what it says on your latest piece, there are only two o’s in ‘trooper’, not three. Oh, and political mailers should have a disclaimer as to who paid for them. You’re welcome.)
State Senator-SD 18 (D): Leave it to the D’s to have a primary for the privilege to lose against Gary Simpson in the fall while leaving Colin Bonini unchallenged. Patrick Emory has better name recognition than Gary Wolfe, and should win. In September, but not November. I dunno, Emory, 60-40?
State Rep.-RD 10 (D) Well, someone has to win. Neither candidate is especially likeable. But Dennis E. Williams‘ arrogance has probably reached its sell-by date. People in the district (or anywhere, for that matter) don’t appreciate having an elected official telling them that he’s right and they’re wrong. Over and over again. Before you call your bookie, remember that I’m almost always wrong in picking this district. But I see Sean Matthews winning, 54-46.
State Rep.-RD 15 (D): As much as I’d love to see an upset of one of Delaware’s worst, I don’t see James Burton beating out Val Longhurst. While Burton has made strides as a candidate, I think they came too late to beat out Longhurst, who took this challenge more seriously than the one two years ago. I’m going with the same number as last time, 58-42, Longhurst. I would be delighted to be wrong.
State Rep.-RD 18 (D): Why anyone would want to primary one of Delaware’s best, and most progressive legislators, is beyond me. But one Christopher Piecuch is indeed challenging Mike Barbieri. Here’s all I need to know about Piecuch, from the candidate questionnaire:
6. Would you vote to raise Delaware’s minimum wage? Why or why not?
Piecuch: I believe the minimum wage is satisfactory where it is at for now. I might get behind higher minimum wages for different industries though.
7. Would you vote to remove criminal penalties for the possession of small amounts of marijuana? Why or why not?Piecuch: No. (No further explanation).
Barbieri, 75-25. On merit.
State Rep.-RD 19: Bill Dunn has gone from being a principled county government gadfly to becoming a perennial candidate for whatever office presents itself. He jumped the shark when he cut short a bid for County Council President in order to run for the state rep seat being vacated by Speaker Bob Gilligan. Whatever credibility he may have earned as a county policy guy went out the window when he saw this window of opportunity, and leaped. It was almost enough to defeat first-time candidate Kim Williams who, as a school board member, placed public education at the top of her priority list. Williams delivered on her promise during her first term, and has emerged as a progressive voice on behalf of public school students and families in the General Assembly. Dunn is challenging her again. It won’t be as close. I’d say Williams, 60-40.
State Rep.-RD 22 (R): Michael Smith surprised with a last-minute filing to challenge long-time R incumbent Joe Miro. He’s a Young Republican in the truest sense of the term. Reminds me why I could never stand people who identified themselves as Young Republicans. I don’t think he gave a direct answer to any of the questions in this survey. The only question is whether Rep. Miro has stayed too long at the fair. I think the voters give him one more term, but maybe no more after that. Miro, 55-45.
State Rep.-RD 31 (D): Very sorry to see Darryl Scott retire from this Dover area seat. He was one of the General Assembly’s best. This sets up a Democratic primary between Sean Lynn and Ralph Taylor. One is a Dover councilman and attorney, the other a small business owner who was previously a state trooper. I honestly don’t know who’s gonna win but, when in doubt, I tend to go with the candidate with the most name recognition. So, I’m picking Lynn 53-47. This is why we encourage feedback. Let me know what you think and what you’re seeing down there.
State Rep.-RD 33 (R): Charles Postles looks poised to take out incumbent Harold Peterman in this Kent County district. Peterman has not been in the best of health, everybody knows it, and the only question is whether he could ride a sympathy vote to a primary win. Postles didn’t even bother to fill out the News-Journal Voters Survey, but he has been the Chair of the 33rd District. Peterman has largely been an undistinguished back-bencher (I wonder, has there ever been a distinguished back-bencher…hey, even I’m not immune from intellectual laziness). Postles, 55-45.
State Rep.-RD 34 (R): I’ll be paying close attention to this one, and so should you. You don’t suppose that R’s would vote their only black legislator out of the General Assembly, do you? Yes, they just might. Longtime incumbent Don Blakey is being challenged by Lyndon Yearick who, stop me if you’ve heard this before, has chaired the local RD Committee. The 34th has a pretty strong D plurality, 6412 D, 5520 R, and 4173 I. Blakey’s problem is that this is a Republican primary. While he generally attracts solid crossover D support in November in the Dover area district, a lot of his voters can’t vote in the primary. I think that Yearick edges Blakey, 52-48, which makes D Ted Yacucci a viable candidate in November.
NCC District 3 (R): Janet Kilpatrick could well be vulnerable…but not when Michael Protack is her challenger. Kilpatrick 65-35.
Sussex County Register of Wills (R): Hey, I said I’d pick ’em all for you. Lessee…Cynthia Green is the incumbent, she’s not black…I predict she wins although…her deputy goes by the name of Patty Bodenweiser. You don’t suppose…nah, Bodenweiser’s a common, well-known name in these here parts. Uh, Green, 54-46, closer than expected. I made that last part up.
Sussex County Council District 5 (D): If web presence counts for anything (not sure it does), then Bob Wheatley is the likely favorite over Brad Connor, who has been the mayor of Dagsboro. Two pretty good candidates, really, based on what I’ve read. Wheatley appears to have run the stronger grassroots campaign of the two, so I predict a 53-47 Wheatley win. I could be so-o-o wrong about this one. What sayeth thou, O Sussex spies?
Sussex County Council District 5 (R): What a choice. A man who wants to pave over that part of Sussex County that remains unpaved, Robert Arlett, and the incumbent who claims he hears voices in his head, biblical voices no less (Sample biblical voice: “Now, I want you to take that girl ’round back behind the dentist’s office and…”), Vance Phillips. Phillips’ recent crashing of a radio interview was mondo bizarro, even by political standards. He and John Atkins should have the same campaign slogan, “That boy ain’t right.” I think the primary voters will listen to the voices in their heads and select Arlett, 58-42.
Sussex County Sheriff (R): I’m going with my blogger’s heart here. We’ve already lost Chip Flowers (I think); Christine O’Donnell is on the backside, downside, of her 15 minutes of fame; Protack and Dunn are becoming Stassen-esque footnotes; and John Atkins could be headed to his last tire fire. We need the Sheriff of Nuttingham. (Well, actually, we don’t. You see, insecurity and narcissism invariably manifest themselves in spectacular burn-out fashion with politicians, sometimes when you least expect it. And we do have Colin Bonini to bring the comedy when things get slow. But still…) There’s only one issue in this race, and that’s Possum Comitatus‘ fave, Jeff Christopher. How many are fur him and how many are agin’ him? Robert T. Lee is as qualified as Christopher is unqualified. But he doesn’t look like any fun. Christopher over Lee 52-48. Win one for the bloggers, Sheriff! Our page views depend on it.
Tags: 2014 Delaware Primaries, El Somnambulo, Featured, Steve Tanzer Delaware
“That boy ain’t right.”
When it comes to “that boy ain’t right” regarding Phillips, its been known for quite some time and yet voters continue to elect him.
Al thinks Protack has a shot. While it would be a blow to my W-L %, it’d be a boon to our site.
Sussex readers, how do you see the races down your way?
If Protack wins, DL could do a “Wisdom of Mike Protack” column every day. You could cull some awesome quotes from Protack through the years (there are some gems in there). Alternate titles “Flyboy Chronicles” or “How a wingnut Earned his Wings”.
Very good. Only points of disagreement are Cher Valenzuela and Jeff Christopher.
I expect the Sheriff of Nuttingham will win but the margin of victory will be narrower. Lee has seemingly acknowledged the lunacy of Western Sussex County is not his base and instead focused on the eastern most side of the county. The eastern retirement side of Sussex is embarrassed by Christopher but there simply aren’t enough of them to overcome the God fearing, apple pie loving, western side republicans. That said, if the weather on election days is spectacular, then maybe Lee wins.
As for Sher V, my gut tells me that she is no more useful than burnt toast on Sept 10. Simpler has a good family name, he presents well, he makes sense when he talks, and – low and behold – he appears to be objectively qualified for the do nothing inconsequential job of State Treasurer. Cher’s ties to Sussex County are less important than Simpler’s ties to New Castle County ties. While the Sussex mouth breathers will vote even in the face of a bible-type natural disaster, the New Castle numbers are still too large for a so-so candidate like Cher. For the Westerners, God has compelled the black man to go quietly and they are unmoved by the prospect of replacing him with a biblically off-script women that isn’t fighting the devil (i.e., Christine O’Donnell’s epically righteous battle against a devil himself in the form moderate republican Mike Castle). God is giving them conflicting messages right now. They vote for her but they ain’t turning out in droves for her.
As usual, a good job. Thanks.
Despite actually talking to Wheatly and hearing some sane, resonable land use ideas, by progressive standards has some (made up) baggage. Since personality and impression seem to mean everything when compared to policy, Wheatly has issues. He is on the planning and zoning committee and some on the far left have accused him of being a rubber stamp for development. Nevermind the fact that the P&Z can only review the project and see if it meets standards set by the county council. He is also an executive in a construction company (you know what that means, nudge nudge wink wink) and despite all efforts, there has been no evidence provided of any impropriety. If there is I would love to see it. In other words, if you are a thinking person that wants actual issues discussed, hes the man. If you go on rumor, hype and impression, he is a pave over sussex guy.
Brad Connor is well liked and somewhat known around his area outside of Dagsboro. But “Mayor of Dagsboro” doesn’t exactly have a huge amount of responsibility. For some reason his mailer reached my mailbox and I am a LONG way from his district. Like 3 zip codes away.
The civil war continues in Sussex with the GOP. I wouldn’t call it a war so much as camps drawn up of us v them. Tea Party v. any remaining sane republican. Christopher will probably win as he as the 912 patriots, tea party and confederates behind him. The sheriffs powers issue is still being talked about by both sides despite the court findings and Christopher promising to leave the state if he loses. the 912 patriots offered to have a debate at Independence hall on Sam Adams road in the Independence developments (not joking) with all the candidates AND an attorney from the group trying to sue around the country to keep sheriffs powers. Lee and Gooch declined the invitation, Gooch saying he wasn’t interested in attending a Christopher rally but he would be willing to debate the winner of the primary.
Arlett is an uphill battle because he ain’t from here. In a just world, Phillips would lose, but conservative bible thumpers leave justice to god when it comes to their own. Smearing Dems and making shit up about them? fair game. Phillips has kept winning re elections despite stealing campaign signs of his opponents (they were in the back of his truck), stealing from a family member during an estate settlement (the court ordered the property returned and a financial penalty) and having an affair and/or statutorily raping a young girl (depending on which story/police report you believe). Phillips will probably win, cause thats how they roll in western. Think John Atkins with fewer police reports.
Thanks. I might have made the mistake of trying to apply logic to that race. As I told Al when we discussed Simpler-Valenzuela, it’s hard to apply logic when trying to understand the motivations behind certain voters and blocs.
How do you see Simpler-Valenzuela, at least in Sussex?
Ain’t: My point on the treasurer’s race is that there are more primaries of interest in Sussex and even Kent Counties, and that what was once the NCC Republican vote has been splintered. Many switched parties to vote for Markell in the 2008 primary, and many have either died or moved away. So I see a proportionately higher turnout in Sussex than in NCC.
That’s why the race is so intriguing to a political junkie like me. It’s all about who turns out.
Life and polls in the Third District are very good these days.
El, good job and good analysis. I have a perspective on the Sussex County races-The Dem races from first-hand knowledge, and the Republican races from the many on that side who love to tell me what the faction they do not belong to is up to.
The 18th Senate Primary on the Dem side is a result of dashed expectations. This is a mostly Sussex district and, when the rumor was (in 2013) that Gary Simpson was going to retire, Sussex Dems saw a possible pick up in what would be an open seat. In 2012, the best positioned row office candidates in Sussex and Kent each won their part of this district. The two Democratic candidates for the 18th served together on the Milford School Board. They did not see eye to eye. Gary Wolfe announced first but Pat Emory had been eyeing the seat for some time. I expect a turnout of only 10-15% in the Primary, which means the candidate with the better ground game will win. This is not an election of signs and advertising. It is about figuring our who will vote and getting a majority of them. There are ideological differences between these two candidates.
The Democratic Primary in the 5th Council District is similar to that in the 18th Senate in that it is still all about turnout The big difference here is that both candidates are better funded and have many volunteers. This council seat is one the Democrats can and should win in November (see R Primary below). There are also idealogical differences between these two.
The Sussex Republican Party, and most of the Sussex Republican Primary contests, are really about the two wings of that Party. The Sussex Republicans have TWO RIGHT WINGS. While both Sheriff Jeff Christopher and Councilman Vance Phillips are best described as “tea party types”, they do not love each other any more than Cain loved Abel. Under normal circumstances, both would be favored in a Primary because of that tea party support-but not this time. Phillips despeately needs the support of Christopher’s people in order to survive Arlett. He is not getting it. Register of Wills Cindy Green is being primaried as part of that same division. Sheriff Christopher’s main adversaries on the County Council are not the moderate Republican and the sole Democrat, but are the two right-wing Republicans- Philips and Sam Wilson. Cindy Green is Wilson’s protege’. Her chief deputy is the wife of Eric Bodenweiser-the once and not future next senator from Georgetown. Bodenweiser’s main supporter is Wilson. So—the REPUBLICANS I hear from who are in the know think Christopher wins the Sheriff Primary ( and loses to Democrat Gooch in November) and Phillips loses the Council Primary and the seat goes to the winner of the Democratic Primary. They think Green wins her Primary and will lose to Democrat Greg Fuller IF the disheartened tea partiers stay home without a statewide ticket pulling them out.
That means that these same people believe that Sher will lose the Treasurer’s Primary. There are too many Tea Partiers ( I could end this sentence here) who do not trust Ms. Valenzuela.
There are a lot of Simpler signs in Eastern Sussex and working their way west. Several of those signs are on activist R yards and business’ Valenzuela seems to have more popularity up in Northern Sussex. I can’t speak for west of Georgetown, I don’t get over that way much except when I am driving to the bridge. Simpler has had a couple of articles in local papers, I don’t recall seeing much press about Sher other than candidate forums.
I think it might be Simpler in Sussex but you do bring up an interesting point about name recognition. In a primary, though, its usually informed committed voters.
Oh, and Brad Connor is a small business owner. He owns a liquor store and a few check cashing places. I am not sure where they are or how many he owns because he doesn’t talk about it much. He plays up the Mayor portion of his resume when speaking in public.
There is at least one DART bus that still has a Chip Flowers advert on the back of it. down here.
Mitch is correct about the Wolfe/Emory primary. Different ideologies is a polite way to put it.
Sean Lynn’s late father was hugely popular. I think we was elected to City Council or Levy Court [as a Republican]. His liberal shoots, clear speaking style and popular family should give him at least 60 percent.
Maybe Dennis E. Williams should move to Wilmington and run in 2016. It worked for guys named Bob Casey.
According to the Voters’ Guide, it looks like Lynn opposes the death penalty, while Taylor supports retaining it.
This is good stuff, everybody, keep it going.
What about those two R state rep primaries in Kent County? Any thoughts?
“Mitch is correct about the Wolfe/Emory primary. Different ideologies is a polite way to put it.”
Go on….
Is my memory failing or did Christopher and Phillips get into some type of altercation?
Thanks.
Here’s my thinking: Sussex County is the statewide Republican primary. That’s where the voters are, where the excitement is and where the other races are. Sussex will lead GOP turnout, and with it, the nominations.
Valenzuela will win the treasurer’s primary. Just like four years ago when Jeff Christopher and Cindy Green benefitted from the COD coattails, this time she will benefit from theirs. The ignorant assclown anti-gay wingnuts are out in force, and Sher is their preferred candidate. (The other guy’s from REHOBOTH, hadn’t you heard? We all know what *that* means.)
Smink is going to amaze everyone, except for God, and beat Wade. See above. I’m sticking with this one.
Vance will lose to Arlett. He’s pissed off too many people over the years, and the lawsuit isn’t helping him any. Vance will then quietly settle the lawsuit, vanish into religious counseling & therapy for six months, and reappear apologizing and asking forgiveness all over the place to lay the groundwork for his 2020 campaign.
I’m not sure who wins sheriff, Christopher or Lee. I’m leaning towards Jeff, but either of them beats Beau Gooch in a cakewalk.
For register of wills – WTF, really? we elect a goddamn jumped-up clerk in 2014? – Green will beat Butler – who? – and pummel Greg Fuller yet again.
What do Gooch and Fuller have in common that make me convinced they’ll lose? They’re black men, and a substantial segment of the Sussex electorate will not vote for a black man. It’s a sad fact, but true. Plus, perhaps more importantly, they are limp dishrag candidates running really shitty campaigns for inconsequential sinecure offices to pad their retirements from government jobs. Yawn.
Wheatley beats Connor, but it’ll be hard. Either loses to Arlett in November.
In Kent, Lynn will beat Taylor easily. Blakey will lose to Yearick. Postles slams Peterman, who’s a nice guy, but that’s about all you can say. Emory and Wolfe? Emory has higher name rec, but the campaign’s pretty lackluster.
Sorry, meant Vance’s 2018 campaign.
SussexWatcher’s story adds up.
I agree with much of SWs post but I still think Treasurer could be a toss up. Not only is Simpler from Rehoboth, but he left there and went to NCCo and is hobnobbing with THOSE republicans now. So, its a good point. Simpler would really have to suck in order for tea party 912ers to vote for a woman with a hispanic last name.
Emory is a conservative Christian, Wolfe? not so much. Wolfe is not a flaming progressive but he is 21st century enlightened (and a Christian). Emory tried to pull the “but thats my seat that I am going to run for” BS when Wolfe stepped in to run and they have been having words ever since. They didn’t really see eye to eye on the school board, either.
Sussex has had their fair share of Conservadem candidates that don’t realize the party left them 40 years ago.
Either one is a long shot. Barring a dead girl or live boy showing up in Simpsons bed.
In the 31st, Sean Lynn is on record supporting women’s health, abolishing the death penalty, regulating guns, and supporting public schools. Taylor has advocated the opposite side of each of these issues. Lynn gets pretty good press from his work on City Council, like supporting the naming of a street after Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr. And his dad was very popular (even has a street named after him). If real Democrats come out to vote, Lynn should take it.
On the Flowers billboards, bus wraps, etc.: When you buy them, you’re ordering well in advance, and you’re paying for a specific time frame. Even if he wants them down, the billboard company, or whoever is responsible for the other advertising, has no reason to spend its manpower removing signage when it doesn’t have a new ad to put up in its place. Remember, it doesn’t look good for a billboard company to have blank billboards.
Given Chip’s slow dance to the door in exiting the race, I suspect he has given Clear Channel and the other advertising outlets the order to take down the billboards in mid September. There’s a good chance he bought them on a contract with a right to renew if he had won the primary.
Simpler will win because a handful of very rich people are putting a lot of attack mail into mailboxes for him.
Three quick questions (which could be rhetorical):
1.) Why does Protack’s robo-call still say he’s running for City Council?
2.) Why is coming to me in Eastern Brandywine Hundred?
3.) Why is coming to me at all, since I am a registered Democrat??
Wait, he’s a pilot, I’m sure he knows what he’s doing. After all, that makes you qualified for any elected position, right?
My unaffiliated wife got a Kilpatrick mailer a week ago and we live at least 10 miles from the closest home that she represents.
That race is really going to go to the least incompetent person.