This column will self-destruct sometime around 9 p.m. next Tuesday. Or perhaps Saturday, according to Dave Tackett’s latest mailer (seriously, he has the wrong day for the primary on his mailer.) Time to pick the primary winners (and losers).
US Senate (R): While the Rethugs deserve Carl Smink, aka ‘God’s Candidate’, they’ll get Kevin Wade, Suede’s Candidate, instead. Come to think of it, the Rethugs also deserve Kevin Wade (paging Jason 330). Wade, 62-38.
State Treasurer (R): We couldn’t have something easier here? Yeah, yeah, I hear about straw polls, I hear how the R’s have learned their lessons from Christine O’Donnell. I see that ‘responsible’ Sussex R’s (Oxy-moron Alert) are pushing the Chamber’s guy. Ain’t buying it. Here’s why. On the day that she entered the race for better or worse, Cheryl Valenzuela had better name recognition than Ken Simpler. She got 37% vs. Matt Denn, which is pretty respectable. Most of the hotly-contested primaries on the R side are downstate. Even though Simpler has Sussex ties, Valenzuela is the mouth-breathers’ type of candidate, and they’ll be voting in disproportionate numbers. Many R’s who would have voted for Simpler are now D’s, and many of those who remain R’s are old and devoid of energy. Simpler deserves to win, but I don’t think he will. Valenzuela, 52-48. Hope I’m wrong on this one. So does Mike Castle.
State Auditor (D): Brenda Mayrack easily handles Ken Matlusky, a nice guy who should find something else to do with his time. Mayrack, 65-35.
State Senator-SD 3 (D): Bob Marshall is one of my favorite senators and people. He’s in a competitive primary with City Councilperson Sherry Walker Dorsey. The 3rd SD has traditionally been one of the most racially- and ethnically-diverse districts in the state. Dorsey has potential, but Marshall has been a unifying presence, with special strength in the Latino community, the senior high rises, what remains of the white ethnic neighborhoods and, of course, with labor and other traditionally D constituencies. I’m going Marshall, 60-40.
State Senator-SD 11 (D): Even with pretty good name recognition, it’s hard to win a D primary against a popular incumbent when your ideological base resides within a right-wing evangelical church. Bryan Townsend gives Dave Tackett a well-deserved whooping, I mean whoooping, 62-38. (Memo to Dave: Next time, try Spell Check. Despite what it says on your latest piece, there are only two o’s in ‘trooper’, not three. Oh, and political mailers should have a disclaimer as to who paid for them. You’re welcome.)
State Senator-SD 18 (D): Leave it to the D’s to have a primary for the privilege to lose against Gary Simpson in the fall while leaving Colin Bonini unchallenged. Patrick Emory has better name recognition than Gary Wolfe, and should win. In September, but not November. I dunno, Emory, 60-40?
State Rep.-RD 10 (D) Well, someone has to win. Neither candidate is especially likeable. But Dennis E. Williams‘ arrogance has probably reached its sell-by date. People in the district (or anywhere, for that matter) don’t appreciate having an elected official telling them that he’s right and they’re wrong. Over and over again. Before you call your bookie, remember that I’m almost always wrong in picking this district. But I see Sean Matthews winning, 54-46.
State Rep.-RD 15 (D): As much as I’d love to see an upset of one of Delaware’s worst, I don’t see James Burton beating out Val Longhurst. While Burton has made strides as a candidate, I think they came too late to beat out Longhurst, who took this challenge more seriously than the one two years ago. I’m going with the same number as last time, 58-42, Longhurst. I would be delighted to be wrong.
State Rep.-RD 18 (D): Why anyone would want to primary one of Delaware’s best, and most progressive legislators, is beyond me. But one Christopher Piecuch is indeed challenging Mike Barbieri. Here’s all I need to know about Piecuch, from the candidate questionnaire:
6. Would you vote to raise Delaware’s minimum wage? Why or why not?
Piecuch: I believe the minimum wage is satisfactory where it is at for now. I might get behind higher minimum wages for different industries though.
7. Would you vote to remove criminal penalties for the possession of small amounts of marijuana? Why or why not?Piecuch: No. (No further explanation).
Barbieri, 75-25. On merit.
State Rep.-RD 19: Bill Dunn has gone from being a principled county government gadfly to becoming a perennial candidate for whatever office presents itself. He jumped the shark when he cut short a bid for County Council President in order to run for the state rep seat being vacated by Speaker Bob Gilligan. Whatever credibility he may have earned as a county policy guy went out the window when he saw this window of opportunity, and leaped. It was almost enough to defeat first-time candidate Kim Williams who, as a school board member, placed public education at the top of her priority list. Williams delivered on her promise during her first term, and has emerged as a progressive voice on behalf of public school students and families in the General Assembly. Dunn is challenging her again. It won’t be as close. I’d say Williams, 60-40.
State Rep.-RD 22 (R): Michael Smith surprised with a last-minute filing to challenge long-time R incumbent Joe Miro. He’s a Young Republican in the truest sense of the term. Reminds me why I could never stand people who identified themselves as Young Republicans. I don’t think he gave a direct answer to any of the questions in this survey. The only question is whether Rep. Miro has stayed too long at the fair. I think the voters give him one more term, but maybe no more after that. Miro, 55-45.
State Rep.-RD 31 (D): Very sorry to see Darryl Scott retire from this Dover area seat. He was one of the General Assembly’s best. This sets up a Democratic primary between Sean Lynn and Ralph Taylor. One is a Dover councilman and attorney, the other a small business owner who was previously a state trooper. I honestly don’t know who’s gonna win but, when in doubt, I tend to go with the candidate with the most name recognition. So, I’m picking Lynn 53-47. This is why we encourage feedback. Let me know what you think and what you’re seeing down there.
State Rep.-RD 33 (R): Charles Postles looks poised to take out incumbent Harold Peterman in this Kent County district. Peterman has not been in the best of health, everybody knows it, and the only question is whether he could ride a sympathy vote to a primary win. Postles didn’t even bother to fill out the News-Journal Voters Survey, but he has been the Chair of the 33rd District. Peterman has largely been an undistinguished back-bencher (I wonder, has there ever been a distinguished back-bencher…hey, even I’m not immune from intellectual laziness). Postles, 55-45.
State Rep.-RD 34 (R): I’ll be paying close attention to this one, and so should you. You don’t suppose that R’s would vote their only black legislator out of the General Assembly, do you? Yes, they just might. Longtime incumbent Don Blakey is being challenged by Lyndon Yearick who, stop me if you’ve heard this before, has chaired the local RD Committee. The 34th has a pretty strong D plurality, 6412 D, 5520 R, and 4173 I. Blakey’s problem is that this is a Republican primary. While he generally attracts solid crossover D support in November in the Dover area district, a lot of his voters can’t vote in the primary. I think that Yearick edges Blakey, 52-48, which makes D Ted Yacucci a viable candidate in November.
NCC District 3 (R): Janet Kilpatrick could well be vulnerable…but not when Michael Protack is her challenger. Kilpatrick 65-35.
Sussex County Register of Wills (R): Hey, I said I’d pick ’em all for you. Lessee…Cynthia Green is the incumbent, she’s not black…I predict she wins although…her deputy goes by the name of Patty Bodenweiser. You don’t suppose…nah, Bodenweiser’s a common, well-known name in these here parts. Uh, Green, 54-46, closer than expected. I made that last part up.
Sussex County Council District 5 (D): If web presence counts for anything (not sure it does), then Bob Wheatley is the likely favorite over Brad Connor, who has been the mayor of Dagsboro. Two pretty good candidates, really, based on what I’ve read. Wheatley appears to have run the stronger grassroots campaign of the two, so I predict a 53-47 Wheatley win. I could be so-o-o wrong about this one. What sayeth thou, O Sussex spies?
Sussex County Council District 5 (R): What a choice. A man who wants to pave over that part of Sussex County that remains unpaved, Robert Arlett, and the incumbent who claims he hears voices in his head, biblical voices no less (Sample biblical voice: “Now, I want you to take that girl ’round back behind the dentist’s office and…”), Vance Phillips. Phillips’ recent crashing of a radio interview was mondo bizarro, even by political standards. He and John Atkins should have the same campaign slogan, “That boy ain’t right.” I think the primary voters will listen to the voices in their heads and select Arlett, 58-42.
Sussex County Sheriff (R): I’m going with my blogger’s heart here. We’ve already lost Chip Flowers (I think); Christine O’Donnell is on the backside, downside, of her 15 minutes of fame; Protack and Dunn are becoming Stassen-esque footnotes; and John Atkins could be headed to his last tire fire. We need the Sheriff of Nuttingham. (Well, actually, we don’t. You see, insecurity and narcissism invariably manifest themselves in spectacular burn-out fashion with politicians, sometimes when you least expect it. And we do have Colin Bonini to bring the comedy when things get slow. But still…) There’s only one issue in this race, and that’s Possum Comitatus‘ fave, Jeff Christopher. How many are fur him and how many are agin’ him? Robert T. Lee is as qualified as Christopher is unqualified. But he doesn’t look like any fun. Christopher over Lee 52-48. Win one for the bloggers, Sheriff! Our page views depend on it.