If you are a Republican or a Democrat, get out there and vote in your respective party primaries. For me, I think the only race I will be voting on in my precinct is the Auditor primary, such as it is. I assume that Chip Flowers’ name has been removed from the ballot. Usually, I would have voted early in the morning, but not today. I was too rushed this morning, so I will, for the first time in my life, vote after work. I am already stressed about it.
Here are some polling goodness to satisfy us. There are a few bright spots in this list of polls, and I will give you the state of play below…
ARKANSAS–SENATE–Rasmussen: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 44, Rep. Tom Cotton (R) 43.
ARKANSAS–SENATE–CNN/ORC International: Cotton (R) 49, Pryor (D) 47.
ARKANSAS–SENATE–NBC/Marist: Cotton (R) 45, Pryor (D) 40.
ARKANSAS–SENATE–Hickman Analytics for Pryor (D): Pryor (D) 45, Cotton (R) 43.
CALIFORNIA–GOVERNOR–Field poll: Gov. Jerry Brown (D) 50, Neel Kashkari (R) 34.
COLORADO–SENATE–Rasmussen: Sen. Mark Udall (D) 44, Cory Gardner (R) 42.
COLORADO–SENATE–NBC/Marist: Udall (D) 48, Gardner (R) 42.
FLORIDA–GOVERNOR–Tampa Bay Times: Gov. Rick Scott (R) 41, Charlie Crist (D) 36, Adrian Wyllie (L) 6.
FLORIDA–GOVERNOR–Gravis Marketing: Scott 37, Crist 37, with 26% still undecided.
FLORIDA–GOVERNOR–Mason-Dixon: Scott (R) 43, Crist (D) 41.
GEORGIA–SENATE–WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer/PMB: Michelle Nunn (D) 45, David Perdue (R) 43.
GEORGIA–GOVERNOR–WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer/PMB: Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 44, Jason Carter (D) 42.
ILLINOIS–SENATE–Harper Polling: Sen. Dick Durbin (D) 44, Jim Oberweis (R) 38.
ILLINOIS–GOVERNOR–A new We Ask America: Bruce Rauner (R) 46, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 37, Chad Grimm (L) 7.
IOWA–SENATE–Loras College–Rep. Bruce Braley (D) 45, Joni Ernst (R) 40.
KANSAS–SENATE–SurveyUSA: Greg Orman (I) 37, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 36, Chad Taylor (D)* 10. *-Taylor has dropped out of the race, but there is some dispute about his name remaining on the ballot.
KANSAS–GOVERNOR–SurveyUSA: Paul Davis (D) 47, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 40, Keen Umbehr (L) 5.
KENTUCKY–SENATE–SurveyUSA: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 46, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42.
KENTUCKY–SENATE–CNN/ORC International: McConnell (R) 50, Grimes (D) 46.
KENTUCKY–SENATE–Rasmussen: McConnell (R) 46, Grimes (D) 41.
KENTUCKY–SENATE–NBC/Marist: McConnell (R) 47, Grimes (D) 39.
LOUISIANA–SENATE–A new Rasmussen: Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) 44, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 41.
LOUISIANA–SENATE–Senate Conservatives Fund (R): Landrieu (D) 46, Cassidy (R) 45.
MASSACHUSETTS–GOVERNOR–University of Massachusetts at Lowell: Martha Coakley (D) 41, Charlie Baker (R) 32, Jeff McCormick (I) 7.
MICHIGAN–SENATE–Public Policy Polling: Gary Peters (D) 43, Terri Lynn Land (R) 36.
MICHIGAN–GOVERNOR–Public Policy Polling: Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 43, Mark Schauer (D) 42.
MINNESOTA–SENATE–SurveyUSA: Sen. Al Franken (D) 51, Mike McFadden (R) 42.
MINNESOTA–GOVERNOR–SurveyUSA: Gov. Mark Dayton (D) 49, Jeff Johnson (R) 40.
NEW HAMPSHIRE–SENATE–Kiley & Co. (D): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50, Scott Brown (R) 42.
NORTH CAROLINA–SENATE–Public Opinion Strategies (R): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 44, Thom Tillis (R) 44, Sean Haugh (L) 7.
OHIO–GOVERNOR–Akron Buckeye Poll: Gov. John Kasich (R) 40, Ed Fitzgerald (D) 21%, with a large 39% still undecided.
PENNSYLVANIA–GOVERNOR–Robert Morris University Polling Institute: Tom Wolf (D) 56, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 25.
WISCONSIN–GOVERNOR–We Ask America: Mary Burke (D) 48, Gov. Scott Walker (R) 44.
Here is the state of play. The GOP needs to gain, or net, 6 seats to win 51 seats, which will be enough for a Republican majority. Remember, if they win just 50, chances are highly likely that Vice President Biden will have the tiebreaking vote and thus give the Dems the majority.
They have three seats already in their pocket: West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota. They need three more. Their targets, and of course, the competitive races are Arkansas, Louisiana, Iowa, North Carolina, Colorado and Alaska.
The Dems have been doing well in Alaska and Colorado, so let’s assume we win those two races. The recent poll out of Iowa looks good for Braley, so let’s assume for now that the Dems retain that seat. That leaves North Carolina, which a recent poll paid for by the NRSC shows a tied race (which may mean that in actuality Hagan is leading), Arkansas and Louisiana. The GOP appears to have taken a consistent lead based on all the polls above in Arkansas, though it remains a toss up. In Louisiana, we have two polls showing both a Landreiu and a Cassidy win, so that is a toss up.
The GOP needs to win all three. And they need to do so while retaining all their seats. They seem to be doing a good job of that in Kentucky recently, with McConnell taking a consistent lead over the Democrat Grimes, but that is still a competitive race that could go either way. And the Dems still lead in Georgia.
And I am not even considering at this point what happens if the Independent wins in Kansas, which the polls now indicate. Orman has said that he will caucus with whomever wins the majority, but what happens if the GOP wins 5 seats, and thus 50 seats, and the Dems have 49 seats? He can single-handedly decide who gets control.
So the Senate is still very much in play, but it is not a done deal as you hear all the pundits declare.