Monday Open Thread [9.15.14]

“In the art of politics he’s Michelangelo, and in the science of politics he is Einstein. He follows political results like a baseball junkie follows box scores. Because he has campaigned in so many places, he has absorbed and integrated millions of data points, yet can assemble them into a narrative that folks can follow.”

— Paul Begala, quoted by Businessweek, on Bill Clinton. He is a genius. He probably will go down as the best politician and President in my entire lifetime. Yes, that includes Reagan and Obama and the forthcoming presidencies of Hillary Clinton in 2017 and Julian Castro in 2025.

The New York Times on what we politicos know to be true: the disaster in Kansas, both fiscally and for Republicans politically is a direct result of conservative tax policy. We have known it for years: cutting taxes does not, repeat, does not lead to increased revenue. Duh, it cuts revenue, meaning that the government has to cut spending. Conservatives are just fine with cutting spending. They do not care about their constituents. But unfortunately for them, their constituents vote.

“Although every statewide elected official in Kansas is a Republican and President Obama lost the state by more than 20 points in the last election,” Gov. Sam Brownback’s (R) “proudly conservative policies have turned out to be so divisive and his tax cuts have generated such a drop in state revenue that they have caused even many Republicans to revolt[.]

“Projections put state budget shortfalls in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually, raising questions of whether the state can adequately fund education in particular. This has boosted the hopes of the Democratic candidate, Paul Davis, the State House minority leader, who has shot up in the polls even though he has offered few specifics about how he would run the state. Many disaffected Republicans might give Mr. Davis their vote because, if nothing else, he is not Mr. Brownback.”

Democrat Davis will win the Kansas governorship, and a possibly Democratic-leaning Independent will unseat a longtime incumbent GOP Senator, all because the Republicans finally cut taxes too much, and their own voters noticed they were getting screwed. Finally.

Politico reports that GOP Operatives are scared “that an ambitious Democratic turnout initiative will give the party a potentially significant 1- or 2-percentage point boost in some key states.” Damn. I was hoping they would sit back and enjoy the Republican leaning polls that have been giving prognosticators the giggles that the GOP has the Senate in the bag. But then again, the Democrats have done the job on the state level to maintain control. Nate Cohn:

“A few months ago, the Democratic path to a Senate majority looked long and arduous… But today the Democratic path to victory looks as clear as it has at any point this year. That path remains narrow, to be sure. The Democrats will probably still need to sweep those five fairly close races. Yet with just two months to go, the Democrats appear to have an advantage in four of them. And the Democrats have other opportunities that might give them more breathing room.”

“If Colorado and Michigan are penciled into the Democratic column, the Democrats would then need three more states to get to a majority. The Democrats have a fairly broad set of options for those states, but the likeliest possibility is that the election comes down to three states: Alaska, Iowa and North Carolina.”

Recent polling out of all three is positive for the Dems, plus we are leading in Louisiana and are competitive in Georgia, Arkansas and Kentucky. And let’s not forget Kansas.

NORTH CAROLINA–SENATOR–Civtas: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 46, Thom Tillis (R) 43.
NORTH CAROLINA–SENATOR–Rasmussen: Hagan (D) 45, Tillis (R) 39.
NEW MEXICO–GOVERNOR–Albuquerque Journal: Gov. Susana Martinez (R) 54, Dave King (D) 36.
COLORADO–GOVERNOR–Denver Post: Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 45, Bob Beauprez (R) 43.
COLORADO–SENATOR–Denver Post: Sen. Mark Udall (D) 46, Cory Gardner (R) 42.
OHIO–GOVERNOR–Columbus Dispatch: Gov. John Kasich (R) 59, Ed FitzGerald (D) 29.
ILLINOIS–GOVERNOR–Chicago Tribune: Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 48, Bruce Rauner (R) 37. Grain of salt with this one, this is the first poll in years showing Quinn ahead by any margin, let alone 11 points.
GEORGIA–GOVERNOR–Atlanta Journal Constitution: Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 43, Jason Carter (D) 42.
GEORGIA–SENATOR–Atlanta Journal Constitution: David Perdue (R) 45, Michelle Nunn (D) 41.
GEORGIA–SENATOR–SurveyUSA: Perdue (R) 47, Nunn (D) 44.
GEORGIA–GOVERNOR–SurveyUSA: Carter (D) 45, Deal (R) 44.
NEW HAMPSHIRE–SENATOR–CNN: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) Scott Brown (R) 48. Grain of salt with this one too, since all other polling has Shaheen up, and her campaign released an internal saying she had an eight point lead, 51% to 43%. Plus, CNN polls have been funky this cycle.
FLORIDA–GOVERNOR–Public Policy Polling : Charlie Crist (D) 42, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 39.
CONNECTICUT–GOVERNOR–Quinnipiac: Tom Foley (R) 46, Gov. Dannel Malloy (D) 40.
SOUTH DAKOTA–SENATOR–Survey USA: Mike Rounds (R) 39, Rick Weiland (D), Larry Pressler (I) 25%.
MICHIGAN–GOVERNOR–Detroit News-WDIV: Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 44, Mark Schauer (D) 42.
MICHIGAN–SENATOR–Detroit News: Rep. Gary Peters (D) 47, Terri Lynn Land (R) 37.
MICHIGAN–SENATOR–Suffolk University: Peters (D) 46, Land (R) 37
MICHIGAN–GOVERNOR–Suffolk University: Schauer (D) 45, Snyder (R) 43.
PENNSYLVANIA–GOVERNOR–Quinnipiac: Tom Wolf (D) 59, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 35.