Tuesday Open Thread [9.16.14]
Charlie Cook: “Two things may be keeping Republican strategists up at night: money and the Democratic ground game. Perhaps the biggest untold story of this election is how so many Republican and conservative donors, at least those whose last name isn’t Koch, have kept their checkbooks relatively closed… Many Republican and conservative donors appear to be somewhat demoralized after 2012. They feel that they were misled about the GOP’s chances in both the presidential and senatorial races that year, and/or their money was not well spent. In short, they are giving less if at all, and it has put Republican candidates in a bind in a number of places.”
“Another reason things might not turn out for Republicans is if the highly touted Democratic Senate ground game comes together. Clearly the Obama campaign and Democratic allies had a superior voter-identification and get-out-the-vote operation two years ago… In midterm elections, if Democrats can crank up the turnout among young, female, and minority voters, then their chances of success this year increase.”
ALASKA–SENATOR–Harstad Research (D): Mark Begich (D) 45, Dan Sullivan (R) 40, Mark Fish (L) 6.
ARKANSAS–SENATOR–Answers Unlimited: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 46, Tom Cotton (R) 42.
ARKANSAS–SENATOR–Gravis Marketing (R): Tom Cotton (R) 47, Mark Pryor (D) 43.
GEORGIA–SENATOR–Landmark Communications (R): Michelle Nunn (D) 46, David Perdue (R) 43, Amanda Swafford (Lib) 6.
ILLINOIS–SENATOR–APC Research: Sen. Dick Durbin (D) 55, Jim Oberweis (R) 32, Sharon Hansen (Lib) 5.
KANSAS–SENATOR–Public Policy Polling: Greg Orman (I) 41, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 34, Chad Taylor (D)* 6.
MINNESOTA–SENATOR–Minneapolis Star Tribune Minnesota Poll: Sen. Al Franken (D) 49, Mike McFadden (R) 36.
NORTH CAROLINA–SENATOR–American Insights (R): Kay Hagan (D-inc): 43, Thom Tillis (R): 34, Sean Haugh (Lib): 5 (Feb.: 38-35 Hagan).
NORTH CAROLINA–SENATOR–Elon University: Hagan 45, Tillis 41 (43-37 Hagan among registered voters).
A new American Research Group poll in New Hampshire finds Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) leads challenger Scott Brown (R) in the U.S. Senate among likely voters, 50% to 45%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE–SENATOR–Kiley & Company (D): Shaheen: 51, Brown: 43 (Early Sept.: 51-43) (conducted for the DSCC).
NEW HAMPSHIRE–SENATOR–Magellan Strategies (R): Brown: 46, Shaheen: 44 (July: 46-41 Shaheen) (conducted for Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire).
NEW HAMPSHIRE–SENATOR–Rasmussen: Shaheen: 48, Brown: 42 (March: Shaheen 50, Brown 41).
MINNESOTA–SENATOR–Minneapolis Star Tribune Minnesota Poll: Gov. Mark Dayton (D) 45, Jeff Johnson (R) 33.
“Another reason things might not turn out for Republicans is if the highly touted Democratic Senate ground game comes together.”
I got a fundraising call from the DNC last night. “PANIC EVERYBODY!!! THE TEA PARTY… ETC!!!”
They’d rather make unhinged phone calls than try promote Democratic policies. I can’t fathom why they still don’t get that the best ground game is governing like Democrats.
The unhinged phone calls and emails have been a fundraising bonaza for the DNC, DTripC and the DSCC. They outraised their R counterparts 7-1.
And I totally disagree with you about the policy being a good ground game. Liberals and progressives are a prickly puritanical bunch. Even if we are pursuing good policy, it will not be perfect in some way, and that will be reason enough to stay home. They want their unicorn and will stay home if they do not get it. And they stayed home in 2010. Doom and Gloom motivation worked in 2012 and will work this year. It also worked in 1998.
It is sad, but it is true. And its politics. It is a lesson the GOP learned years ago.
Doom and Gloom’s track record is mixed at best. I’d say it sucks, but I’m trying to meet you half way and figure out how 1998 (voter disgust with the Republicans pursuit of Clinton’s impeachment) serves as proof that Doom and Gloom works.
And this…
“Even if we are pursuing good policy, it will not be perfect in some way, and that will be reason enough to stay home. They want their unicorn and will stay home if they do not get it.”
…is some nice Vulcan 11th dimensional chess strategy you’ve got there.
1998: The campaign focused on Republican overreach, and what they would do with even more seats in the Senate, where the upcoming Impeachment Trial would take place in January 1999. Dems turned out, and the margins stayed the same in the Senate (the GOP could have gained 5-7 seats and had enough to remove Clinton from office), and the GOP lost 5 seats in the House, the first time that had happened in the 6th year of a presidency.
As for my 11th dimensional chess strategy, it is not a strategy. It is experience. I saw it happen in 2010, to my utter amazement.
You are denying reality. Just look at all the red meat the R base has been given over the years and their turnout numbers.
But we seem polarized on our potions, to we’ll have to agree to disagree on this. Or disagree to agree, perhaps?
“red meat the R base has been given” = all of the fearmongering crap that motivates them
As we all know, the teabag agenda is complete bullshit, and yet it makes its way to votes in both houses. Just think what actual policies that could help people might do for voter engagement if they ever came to an up or down vote.
But the teabag agenda also has alot of people pushing for it and there’s some accountability included. Policies that could actually help people don’t get that kind of energy and there’s absolutely no accountability.
Jason –
I think that DD is bringing up a good point with 2010 – we had two years of complete Democratic control, we had the most productive congress in about half a century, we passed fair pay, we passed healthcare reform, but the compromises that were made to get those progressive policies in place were enough to push Democratic turnout to record lows in 2010.
The proof is in the pudding. The DCCC has outraised the NRCC by enormous margins every month this summer, and money is what pays for organizers to go and get the faithful out to the ballot box.
In fact, flip the tables here – when was the last election where “governing like Democrats” and running on the policies we enacted were enough to take or retain a majority?
Good points, but another way to say it is that entrenched cowardice of Democrats allowed the gains of most productive congress to slip through their fingers.
Democrats (and especially DC based Democratic campaign consultants) are much too plugged into what they perceive to be the “mood of the nation.” They are in thrall of the lie that America is a “center right” nation. It isn’t – but hey think it is, so they begin campaigns by apologizing for being Democrats.
Seriously, what does today’s Republican party have to offer the working class besides pandering to their misplaced resentments?