Charlie Cook: “Two things may be keeping Republican strategists up at night: money and the Democratic ground game. Perhaps the biggest untold story of this election is how so many Republican and conservative donors, at least those whose last name isn’t Koch, have kept their checkbooks relatively closed… Many Republican and conservative donors appear to be somewhat demoralized after 2012. They feel that they were misled about the GOP’s chances in both the presidential and senatorial races that year, and/or their money was not well spent. In short, they are giving less if at all, and it has put Republican candidates in a bind in a number of places.”
“Another reason things might not turn out for Republicans is if the highly touted Democratic Senate ground game comes together. Clearly the Obama campaign and Democratic allies had a superior voter-identification and get-out-the-vote operation two years ago… In midterm elections, if Democrats can crank up the turnout among young, female, and minority voters, then their chances of success this year increase.”
ALASKA–SENATOR–Harstad Research (D): Mark Begich (D) 45, Dan Sullivan (R) 40, Mark Fish (L) 6.
ARKANSAS–SENATOR–Answers Unlimited: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 46, Tom Cotton (R) 42.
ARKANSAS–SENATOR–Gravis Marketing (R): Tom Cotton (R) 47, Mark Pryor (D) 43.
GEORGIA–SENATOR–Landmark Communications (R): Michelle Nunn (D) 46, David Perdue (R) 43, Amanda Swafford (Lib) 6.
ILLINOIS–SENATOR–APC Research: Sen. Dick Durbin (D) 55, Jim Oberweis (R) 32, Sharon Hansen (Lib) 5.
KANSAS–SENATOR–Public Policy Polling: Greg Orman (I) 41, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 34, Chad Taylor (D)* 6.
MINNESOTA–SENATOR–Minneapolis Star Tribune Minnesota Poll: Sen. Al Franken (D) 49, Mike McFadden (R) 36.
NORTH CAROLINA–SENATOR–American Insights (R): Kay Hagan (D-inc): 43, Thom Tillis (R): 34, Sean Haugh (Lib): 5 (Feb.: 38-35 Hagan).
NORTH CAROLINA–SENATOR–Elon University: Hagan 45, Tillis 41 (43-37 Hagan among registered voters).
A new American Research Group poll in New Hampshire finds Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) leads challenger Scott Brown (R) in the U.S. Senate among likely voters, 50% to 45%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE–SENATOR–Kiley & Company (D): Shaheen: 51, Brown: 43 (Early Sept.: 51-43) (conducted for the DSCC).
NEW HAMPSHIRE–SENATOR–Magellan Strategies (R): Brown: 46, Shaheen: 44 (July: 46-41 Shaheen) (conducted for Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire).
NEW HAMPSHIRE–SENATOR–Rasmussen: Shaheen: 48, Brown: 42 (March: Shaheen 50, Brown 41).
MINNESOTA–SENATOR–Minneapolis Star Tribune Minnesota Poll: Gov. Mark Dayton (D) 45, Jeff Johnson (R) 33.