Earlier this past week, Ezra Klein wondered why Vice President Joe Biden was trailing Hillary Clinton by 44 points in the latest poll of a potential match up in the 2016 primary. Ezra said that it wasn’t the Biden gaffes or the preception that he is a joke; it’s that “Biden is an old-school, white, male politician in a party that’s increasingly young, multicultural, and female.”
Seth Masket at the Monkey Cage has a different take, and it is the right one.
Biden isn’t doing well in presidential polls because almost no one of consequence in the Democratic Party, other than Biden, is talking seriously about his presidential prospects. Few Democratic elites have made public endorsements for 2016 yet, but the early signals are pretty clear. Priorities USA Action, the super PAC that threw so much money and effort behind Obama in 2012, has signaled its support for Hillary Clinton, and past Obama campaign leaders like Jim Messina and Jeremy Bird have fallen in for her. This is about as close as you can get at this point in the cycle to a full-throated endorsement from President Obama and the Democratic establishment. Potential also-ran Elizabeth Warren has the backing of some notable individuals, such as former congressman Barney Frank and TV financial guru Suze Orman. This isn’t much to build a presidential run on, but it does suggest at least some support for the Massachusetts senator, perhaps enough for a minor candidacy to advance some issues of importance to her. But who is backing Biden?
[No one.]
Now, this of course begs the question as to why insiders aren’t backing Biden. All these factors [gaffes, perception, age] mentioned above may play a role in that, but it’s fair to remember that this would be (or is) Biden’s third run for the White House. He put in valiant efforts in 1988 and 2008 and was never even among the finalists. Scandal ended his first run before anyone had even voted, and he withdrew in early 2008 after a poor showing in the Iowa Caucus. It would be hard to make the case that demography or gaffes cost him those races. It seems fair to say that the party isn’t seriously considering him for the presidency in 2016 because it’s already considered him twice before and, for any number of reasons, found him wanting.
If Hillary dropped out tomorrow, Biden doesn’t become the instant frontrunner. Governors Martin O’Malley, Andrew Cuomo and Brian Schweitzer immediately jump in, as does Senator Elizabeth Warren, the latter of which probably becomes the money and poll leader. Biden would run too, but I doubt he gets the nomination. He’s a great guy, a great Senator and a great Vice President. We just don’t want him as the lead dog.