Month: September 2014

The Old State House, from Mike Mahaffie on Flickr.

Nobody handicapping 2014 races as recently as three weeks ago factored in the possibility that Kansas, of all places, might become a sudden GOP sinkhole. Now Sen. Pat Roberts is in real and consistent trouble against independent candidate Greg Orman, as part of what appears to be a self-conscious revolt of moderate Republican voters who are also threatening to throw Gov. (and former Sen.) Sam Brownback out of office.

"A self-conscious revolt of moderate Republican voters...?" Go on...

Charlie Cook: "Two things may be keeping Republican strategists up at night: money and the Democratic ground game. Perhaps the biggest untold story of this election is how so many Republican and conservative donors, at least those whose last name isn't Koch, have kept their checkbooks relatively closed... Many Republican and conservative donors appear to be somewhat demoralized after 2012. They feel that they were misled about the GOP's chances in both the presidential and senatorial races that year, and/or their money was not well spent. In short, they are giving less if at all, and it has put Republican candidates in a bind in a number of places." "Another reason things might not turn out for Republicans is if the highly touted Democratic Senate ground game comes together. Clearly the Obama campaign and Democratic allies had a superior voter-identification and get-out-the-vote operation two years ago... In midterm elections, if Democrats can crank up the turnout among young, female, and minority voters, then their chances of success this year increase." We have more polls painting a pretty happy picture for Dems.

Full Disclosure: I lived in Edinburgh for around a year when I was 20, so Scotland is close to my heart. However, beyond the "Screw yoo, Ya English Bastards!" nationalism…

The New York Times on what we politicos know to be true: the disaster in Kansas, both fiscally and for Republicans politically is a direct result of conservative tax policy. We have known it for years: cutting taxes does not, repeat, does not lead to increased revenue. Duh, it cuts revenue, meaning that the government has to cut spending. Conservatives are just fine with cutting spending. They do not care about their constituents. But unfortunately for them, their constituents vote.

"Although every statewide elected official in Kansas is a Republican and President Obama lost the state by more than 20 points in the last election," Gov. Sam Brownback's (R) "proudly conservative policies have turned out to be so divisive and his tax cuts have generated such a drop in state revenue that they have caused even many Republicans to revolt[.] "Projections put state budget shortfalls in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually, raising questions of whether the state can adequately fund education in particular. This has boosted the hopes of the Democratic candidate, Paul Davis, the State House minority leader, who has shot up in the polls even though he has offered few specifics about how he would run the state. Many disaffected Republicans might give Mr. Davis their vote because, if nothing else, he is not Mr. Brownback."

Democrat Davis will win the Kansas governorship, and a possibly Democratic-leaning Independent will unseat a longtime incumbent GOP Senator, all because the Republicans finally cut taxes too much, and their own voters noticed they were getting screwed. Finally. Politico reports that GOP Operatives are scared "that an ambitious Democratic turnout initiative will give the party a potentially significant 1- or 2-percentage point boost in some key states." Damn. I was hoping they would sit back and enjoy the Republican leaning polls that have been giving prognosticators the giggles that the GOP has the Senate in the bag. But then again, the Democrats have done the job on the state level to maintain control. Nate Cohn:

"A few months ago, the Democratic path to a Senate majority looked long and arduous... But today the Democratic path to victory looks as clear as it has at any point this year. That path remains narrow, to be sure. The Democrats will probably still need to sweep those five fairly close races. Yet with just two months to go, the Democrats appear to have an advantage in four of them. And the Democrats have other opportunities that might give them more breathing room." "If Colorado and Michigan are penciled into the Democratic column, the Democrats would then need three more states to get to a majority. The Democrats have a fairly broad set of options for those states, but the likeliest possibility is that the election comes down to three states: Alaska, Iowa and North Carolina."

Recent polling out of all three is positive for the Dems, plus we are leading in Louisiana and are competitive in Georgia, Arkansas and Kentucky. And let's not forget Kansas.