Tuesday Open Thread [10.28.14]

Tuesday Open Thread [10.28.14]

8 Comments
First Read:
"How can the national polls look so bad for Democrats (see the NBC/WSJ/Annenberg and Washington Post/ABC polls), but the competitive Senate contests all be within the margin of error? Here's an answer for you: There are two different midterm environments taking place in the country a week before Election Day. The first is the nationwide one, where there does seem to be a wave building for Republicans and where the GOP has a huge enthusiasm advantage. The second election, however, is taking place in the top Senate and gubernatorial battlegrounds, where Democrats have spent a tremendous amount of money building field organizations and getting (as best they can) their side fired up." "This tale of two different midterm elections -- not too dissimilar from what we saw in 2012 where the national and battleground polls didn't match up -- also helps explain why House Democrats are in trouble in states not holding competitive races like in California, Minnesota and New York (after all, embattled GOP Rep. Michael Grimm could very well win)."
We have a lot of Senate polls here today, and tons of Governor polls tomorrow...
El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em All For You!

El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em All For You!

68 Comments
The tough races are really tough, the easy races are really easy. I know I'm not running the table, but I don't know where I'll falter. I just know that I will. If there's a unifying theme, I think it's that D's will struggle in Delaware more than usual, which is exactly what I expect to happen nationwide. Hope I'm wrong. These predictions are also going up a week out, and there's plenty of movement in some of the races. With that depressing, but not hopeless, forecast out of the way, here we go: United States Senate: Chris Coons over Kevin Wade, 58-40%, with Andrew Groff of the Green Party at 2%. I'll be among the 2 percenters. US Representative: This provides the true measure of how many people will vote Republican no matter what.  Does Rose Izzo get over 30%? I'm going Carney 67%, Izzo 29%, with the Green and Libertarian candidates maybe getting 4%.  For me, it'll be August in November. Attorney General: Matt Denn will win, does he break 60%?

Futures Market Handicapping the Statewide Races – October 28th

5 Comments
Lots of buying and selling action in the trading markets since my last update. Who has crashed and who still has a little upside potential? Let's take a look.
Senate: Chris Coons 0.98 (0.98) - Kevin Wade 0.01 (0.02) House: John Carney 0.95 (0.99) - Rose Izzo 0.01 (0.01) Bernie August 0.04 (n/a) Attorney General: Matt Denn 0.95 (0.93) - Ted Kittila 0.05 (0.07) Treasurer: Chip Flowers 0.00 (0.39) - Sean Barney 0.48 (0.37) - Ken Simpler 0.48(0.17) - Sher Valenzuela 0.00 Auditor: Brenda Mayrack 0.48(0.43) - Tom Wagner 0.48 (0.47)
You could have made some money in the Treasurers race. Shorting Flowers at 0.40 and taking a long position in Simpler at 0.15 was the winning move. As it stands now, other than simply guessing the Treasurer and Auditors races and winning the coin flip, I don't see any profitable moves left. Simpler, for example, appears to be at his max trading value. Smart traders will probably be taking their Simpler profits off the table. But hey, this is politics so do "smart traders" exist? For instance, somebody placed some sentimental money on Bernie August, bidding him up to 0.04. (Okay, it was me. There is still a week to go. Carney could still Bill Roth it.)