The tough races are really tough, the easy races are really easy. I know I’m not running the table, but I don’t know where I’ll falter. I just know that I will. If there’s a unifying theme, I think it’s that D’s will struggle in Delaware more than usual, which is exactly what I expect to happen nationwide. Hope I’m wrong. These predictions are also going up a week out, and there’s plenty of movement in some of the races.
With that depressing, but not hopeless, forecast out of the way, here we go:
United States Senate: Chris Coons over Kevin Wade, 58-40%, with Andrew Groff of the Green Party at 2%. I’ll be among the 2 percenters.
US Representative: This provides the true measure of how many people will vote Republican no matter what. Does Rose Izzo get over 30%? I’m going Carney 67%, Izzo 29%, with the Green and Libertarian candidates maybe getting 4%. For me, it’ll be August in November.
Attorney General: Matt Denn will win, does he break 60%? I think he falls shy of that goal. Denn 58%, Kittila 38%, the rest 4%. BTW, although I thought her debate performance was solid, Catherine Damavandi of the Green Party earns my ‘Worst Sign Award’ of 2014. The blue lettering on a green background, coupled with a long name, made her name impossible to read unless I was stopped at a traffic light. Besides, why the bleep should a third party candidate pay extra for a second run-through at the printer’s?
State Treasurer: The question here is whether an inherent registration advantage can overcome a lackluster campaign? It can, but I don’t think it will. I’ll go Ken Simpler 53%, Sean Barney 46%, with David Chandler of the Green Party at 1%. Carper goes back to the laboratory. Memo to Tom and the scientists at Carper Cyborgenics: Next time you create a prototype, try to get him to say more than “I served in the military.” Oh, and a few signs in Brandywine Hundred wouldn’t hurt either. Even if Barney wins, he will have run one of the most uninspired campaigns I can remember.
State Auditor: In an ideal world, Brenda Mayrack should be State Auditor and Tom Wagner should never have been State Auditor. She finally (way too late for my taste) has made incumbent Tom Wagner’s ‘record’ the main issue of the campaign, and is continuously banging the drum on that message. I also think that, although he may have name recognition from his previous runs, the fact that he has next to no presence anywhere in NCC (I haven’t seen a single Wagner sign in Brandywine Hundred) will not help him. However, Mayrack would be a better auditor than she is a candidate. For too long, she tried to be her own campaign manager, a no-no that is taught on the first day of any candidate training workshop worth its salt (BTW, what, exactly, does ‘worth its salt’ mean?) I still think she’s got a shot against the incumbent who has run like he’s served: Done next to nothing. Still, I think it shakes down Wagner 51%-49%. And, yes, Wagner will have won despite having run a campaign even less inspired than that of Sean Barney. In fact, the fact that the Auditor’s race is immediately below the Treasurer’s race on the ballot could be a deciding factor.
Senate District 2: For the life of me, I can’t figure out why the R’s chose to challenge this seat and a couple of other city races. Why drive out turnout even a little bit in overwhelmingly D races this year? Sen. Margaret Rose Henry romps over Robert Martin, even though there are still some disgruntled self-styled leaders who resented her support for Sen. Marshall in the primary. Those leaders would do well to recognize that, by so doing, she has solidified her standing in the Senate Caucus which will lead to, wait for it, yet more consideration for her district. Besides, even if they’re PO’d at Margaret, they’ll be voting D for the rest of the offices.
Senate District 4: Kudos to Sarah Buttner for taking on Greg Lavelle. She’s taking one for the team. However, in addition to everything else, she has geography going against her. The district runs from Brandywine Hundred almost to the Newark city limits. However, it is still a Brandywine Hundred-centric district, and Buttner is from the Newark portion which, I think, is new to the district since reapportionment. Lavelle romps, but Buttner just might run again in a less daunting race.
Senate District 6: Progressives are enthused with the candidacy of Claire Snyder-Hall in this eastern Sussex district. However, I think that incumbent Ernie Lopez wins a full term here. I think the voters see him as a comfortable fit for the district, and see little reason to question their previous judgment. 55%-45% Lopez.
Senate District 10: I’m gonna enjoy the results of this race. John Marino is running as the ‘Christian conservative’ with the full backing of the Christian dominionists and that fundamentalist gay-hating church in the district. Sen. Bethany Hall-Long called them out on their gay-bashing and their disgraceful tactics, and she’s gonna whup Marino. I’d say 63%-37%.BHL still may have a shot at higher office ahead of her.
Senate District 16: Serial bloviator Sen. Colin Bonini faces token opposition from IPOD candidate Michael Tedesco. Bonini, of course, romps. I won’t even claim credit for this one unless I have to pad my record.
Senate District 17: Like it or not, Sen. Brian Bushweller has become Nancy Cook’s de-facto successor when it comes to delivering money to Kent County and Kent County businesses. He’s not gonna lose to the lunatic fringe religious-based candidacy of Kim Warfield.
Senate District 18: Senate Minority Leader Gary Simpson will defeat Patrick Emory in this Kent/Sussex district. Emory was the ‘good ol’ boy’ candidate in the inexplicable D primary to face Simpson. I’ll be interested to see what Simpson’s margin is. He may be getting to the point of being vulnerable going forward. Or he may not.
Senate District 21: First, this caveat: I have no clue. However, I’ll go with Bryant Richardson over incumbent Sen. Bob Venables, 52%-48% in this central Sussex district. My thinking from up north is that voters saw the last election as Venables’ final run, and they gave him what they thought was his two-year valedictory. Venables not only surprised the voters, but he surprised his own caucus when he announced he would run again. I doubt that voters are inclined to give him four more years. I’d encourage impartial observers (party chairs need not apply, though they can reply) to provide a closer-to-the-scene perspective on this race.
RD 2: Stephanie Bolden will win handily, the R’s statewide lose if turnout spikes in this traditionally low turnout eastside Wilmington district. For the record, the R candidate is Richard Dyton.
RD 3: D Helene Keeley once again defeats Delaware’s Bail Bondsman, R Robert Bovell. Turnout spike likely.
RD 4: The R’s are targeting this race, but I don’t know why. My theory? They have very few targets of opportunity, and they see this as one of the best of a bad lot. And Robert Keesler may well have a future, although his libertarian positions were hit-and-miss for me when I met him. Yes, Gerald Brady is a hack, and he’s, um, not aging well. However, he will likely rack up enough of a lead in the senior high rises alone, where he’s beloved, to ensure that the race is not competitive. Yes, it’s a weird district that meanders into solid R country. But the registration figures are solid D. And the Wilmington D’s in this district vote. They’ll vote for Brady. I’d say 60%-40%.
RD 6: Former R candidate (and actor, juggler, and hand model) Lee Murphy denied us comedic relief when he dropped out of the race against incumbent D Debra Heffernan in this Brandywine Hundred district. Fortunately, he was replaced by one Kyle Buzzard, whose real name is Kyle Buzzard. He speaks in generic Rethug sound clips except for his one unique idea: “One idea that I would work tirelessly to implement is the creation of an Aviation Hub in Northern New Castle County.” Should go over really well with folks who are looking for more noise from passing planes. Heffernan turns this Buzzard into carrion, 63%-37%. At least, and this is becoming a theme, the R’s have recruited some younger candidates with possible political futures.
RD 7: Incumbent D Bryon Short faces token opposition from IPOD candidate Robert Wilson in the Brandywine Hundred district. Almost feel guilty predicting a huge Short win, so I’ll only claim credit if my record really sucks. But, he’ll win easily.
RD 8: D Quin Johnson is quite popular in this Middletown-area district, and will easily turn back R Matthew Brown, probably with more than 60%.
RD 9: The District That Becky Walker Forgot. Both R and D operatives believe this race will be very close. Kevin Hensley is a realtor with ties to the Charter Schools movement through his work with MOT Charter. From what I’ve heard, he’s all over the district. Jason Hortiz grew up in the MOT area, coaches youth sports and works in the finance industry. I really don’t like these cookie-cutter R’s running this year, of which Hensley is one, but, based on the mess that Becky Walker caused and based solely on my Spidey Sense, I think Hensley wins, 52-48. We’ve got some real good DL followers in that diistrict, what do you think?
RD 10: Another race both sides are targeting. D Sean Matthews defeated incumbent Dennis E. Williams in this Brandywine Hundred district. Judy Travis is the R challenger. Travis is far to the right of the traditional R mainstream voters in the district, she has been supported every step of the way by the Faith & Freedom Coalition, a Christian dominionist group. She is, however, well-financed, with Michelle Rollins hosting a fundraiser for her. Matthews is a door-knocking machine, he seems to have done a real good job of mollifying Williams’ supporters, if not Williams himself. I think shoe leather defeats religious zeal. A 53-47 win for Matthews.
RD 11: An upset special for the D’s, but don’t get too excited. The voters in this Clayton-based district narrowly sent R Jeff Spiegelman to Dover two years ago. Lynne Newlin never stopped campaigning after her close loss. Both D’s and R’s in Dover were taken aback by Spiegelman’s unstinting rudeness during his first term. I think Newlin wins the rematch, 52-48, marking a rare D pickup this cycle. The best I can say about her is that she’s not as bad as Lumpy Carson.
RD 12: Candidates like Jeffry Porter don’t get enough credit. But they’re valuable to their parties. Porter will not defeat longtime incumbent Debbie Hudson in this Greenville/Brandywine Hundred District. However, he forces Hudson to focus on her race and limits her involvement in other races. In other words, he’s taking one for the team. I’ll be interested to see any weakness in Hudson’s political strength. If she doesn’t run real strongly, this becomes a competitive race in two years, and maybe foretells Hudson’s retirement. Hudson, 62-38.
RD 15: R Matthew Lenzini poses no threat to incumbent D Val Longhurst. While Carper has his cyborgenic assembly line, so do the Rethugs, with their Delaware Leadership Fellows program (it’s technically ‘non-partisan’, but not really) that turns out young buzz-cutted go-getters who speak from the same script. Like Lenzini. While I have no use for Val Longhurst, she’ll win handily here, say 65-35.
RD 16: Should Barney or Mayrack squeak by statewide, the fact that the R’s put up a candidate against the very popular James ‘J. J.’ Johnson will be one of the reasons. I think turnout will be up for an off-year in this generally under-performing district. Johnson will win big over Gregory Coverdale, Coverdale wears a bow tie and has worked for some of the largest financial behemoths in the country. Johnson, 72-28.
RD 19: One of Delaware’s emerging progressive voices, D Kim Williams, is being challenged by James Startzman. Startzman is a realtor and, that’s about it, according to Startzman. It’s one thing to argue that it makes sense to vote for someone b/c they’re not a career politician. It’s quite another to ask people to vote for someone because they have no notable accomplishments whatsoever. I’ll be disappointed with anything less than 70-30, Williams.
RD 20: One of the marquee matchups and a rematch from 2012. Current R Rep. and former state cop Steve Smyk is once again challenged by Marie Mayor. It’s gonna be close, real close. Right-wing gadfly Don Ayotte is also in the race. I don’t know if he tops 1%. I think Smyk prevails 51-48, with the other 1% going to Ayotte. A touch closer than last time. I hope that I have ‘reverse black-catted’ this prediction. Baseball fans will understand that one.
RD 21: Mike Ramone easily turns back a Green Party opponent. Hmmm. I wonder if he stays in the R Caucus moving forward…some of them really don’t like him. And he has a great chance to screw them. He could basically get whatever he wanted with a flip.
RD 22: A three-way race between incumbent R Joe Miro, D John Mackenzie, and Libertarian Steve Newton. Miro is nearing the end of his career. I think he would have been more likely to lose had he not had a primary opponent. However, he was able to win a comfortable victory in September and his campaign team is tested. Newton’s candidacy will be a test of how strong a showing a third party candidate can make. He’s by far the most viable L candidate to have run in recent years. Still, Mackenzie is a strong progressive D who will likely enjoy solid party support, so I see Newton at somewhere around 12% or so. Miro wins, but he may be held under 50%. I’ll go Miro 48, Mackenzie 40, and Newton 12.
RD 29: Something tells me that the less I like Trey Paradee, the better he is liked in his district. He faces R Pete Kramer in a district that saw Paradee ride to a surprisingly easy win over incumbent Lincoln Willis last time. Kramer’s yet another young R (30 or so) who says that business has been ‘mugged’ in Delaware. You gotta give the R’s credit for virtually all adopting the same message, no matter how untrue it is. I think Paradee improves his margin this time, 57-43.
RD 30: Speaker Pete Schwartzkopf and the D House Caucus (especially those who support Speaker Pete) have made this race a high priority. R William ‘Bobby’ Outten is being challenged by former R and current D Jon Gallo. The backstory here is that Outten has said that he likely would have endorsed Gallo to be his successor had he remained an R. I’ve always liked Outten b/c he earned an honest living as a meter reader. Gallo is yet another in an endless line of ‘finance professionals’ who seem to be turning out in droves to run for office. The question of ‘what’s up with that’ will have to wait for another day. He does have an estimable bio and I think it’s only a matter of time before he is elected. Will it be this year? I’m going with Outten, 52-48, but this race is worth watching.
RD 31: D’s are defending the seat left vacant by the for-now retirement of Darryl Scott. The R’s have scored an impressive challenger in Sam Chick. The D’s have countered with Sean Lynn, a Dover councilman and an attorney. Registration favors the D’s over the R’s by 2-1, so Lynn will likely win, 58-42. Like Scott, Lynn opposes the death penalty.
RD 32: Andria Bennett easily turns back the challenge of R (and former IPOD guy) William McVay. 70-30.
RD 33: At one time, I saw this as a pick-up opportunity for the D’s, but I no longer do. I was very surprised at incumbent R Harold Peterman‘s margin of victory in what was expected to be a nail-biter. I also know that, despite a nominal D registration edge over R’s, I’s are more likely to vote R than D, and there are plenty of ’em in this conservative Kent County district. Farmer Kevin Robbins, the D challenger, is not likely to win this time, although his time may come down the road. Peterman, 58-42.
RD 34: Businessman Lyndon Yearick ousted incumbent R Don Blakey in the primary, and faces D Ted Yacucci, who has had a pretty impressive career in media. I really don’t like Yearick’s stands on the issues (click the link), but it’s what every single R is saying. Yacucci has apparently made some enemies among the D’s, which is too bad, as he’d be by far the better representative. Yearick, 55-45.
RD 37: D Paulette Rappa is running an energetic race against the odious R incumbent, Ruth Briggs King, one of the worst legislators in Dover. However, neither registration nor geography is Rappa’s friend. Combining the R’s with the I’s, who tend to overwhelmingly vote R, I don’t see how Rappa can pull this off. 57-43, Briggs King.
RD 39: R House Minority Leader Danny Short fends off token opposition from L James Brittingham. 92% for Short.
RD 41: Only in Sussex County could one of the greatest embarrassments in Delaware legislative history be challenged by someone who is even worse. Incumbent D John Atkins has been invaluable to us here at Delaware Liberal. Whenever thing got boring, John was always there to ‘fire’ up the masses. He is being challenged by one of the most venal people in the state, Richard Collins, head of the Positive Growth Alliance, which publicly believes that the rights of property owners to impose their will at will against the wishes of their neighbors, or the interests of society at large, are paramount. I think Atkins just has too many headlines to overcome this time around, and that Collins wins, 53-47.
NCC Recorder of Deeds: My Main Man With The Tan, Mike Kozikowski, romps once again. In NCC, registration numbers are destiny.
BTW, six NCC Councilmanic Districts, no challengers? That’s pretty sad given the caliber of the sitting councilmembers. At least, some of them.
NCC Sheriff: D Trinidad Navarro rides roughshod over a 3rd Party candidate.
Kent County Recorder of Deeds: Incumbent D Betty Lou McKenna defeats R La Mar T. Gunn. In this race, registration is destiny. However, La Mar T. Gunn is almost an iconic name, the best new name this cycle.
Kent County Councilman At-Large: Incumbent D Terry Pepper is being challenged by Charles Hurd. Pepper wins. Hey, I got nothing here.
Kent County Sheriff: Just looking at the two web pages, I have to think that D Richard Ashley will likely defeat R Jason Mollohan. I mean, just click on endorsements on Mollohan’s page like I did. This is what you’ll find. Not, you know, endorsements. The new sheriff in town will go by the name of Ashley.
Sussex County Recorder of Deeds: D candidate Greg Fuller says he’ll give it “110%”. Which raises the question, is it possible for any recorder of deeds to give it 110%? How would a recorder of deeds give it 110%?Don’t think we’re gonna find out. Incumbent R Cynthia Green wins reelection.
Sussex County Council District 4: If incumbent George Cole doesn’t run, maybe former state representative Shirley Price wins. He ran, she won’t.
Sussex County Council District 5: I’m rooting for D Robert Wheatley here, if for no other reason than his opponent, R Robert Arlett has been endorsed by John Radell of the Faith & Freedom Coalition. However, it’s Sussex County, and I think they elect Arlett. When in doubt, I ask myself who I’d vote for, and pick the other candidate.
Sussex County Sheriff: I just know that you’ve read this far, or at least skipped down here, to read about this race. R Robert T. Lee edged the incumbent Sheriff of Nuttingham, Jeff Christopher, in the R primary. The Democratic nominee is Beau Gooch, former Lewes Police Chief. Christopher is running an official write-in campaign. Oh, did I mention that Gooch is black? I did now, and I think that will impact the race. Here’s how I see it. Christopher’s people will not find it easy to write in his name, they really aren’t that smart. (BTW, does spelling count? How close do you have to get to the right spelling in order for it to count?) Plus, these people might otherwise have stayed home on election day were Christopher not conducting this campaign. They won’t be voting for any D’s, so his candidacy could hurt D’s and help R’s despite Republican concerns. So, Christopher finishes third. Who wins? Here’s the dirty little secret that I think determines the election: many of the conservadems in western Sussex simply won’t vote for a black guy from Lewes for anything, much less a gun-totin’ position like sheriff. While Gooch may get some moderate R votes from eastern Sussex, they’ll be more than offset by white D’s from western and central Sussex crossing over to vote for Lee. Lee wins, Gooch second, Christopher third.
Man, I need a drink!