El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em All For You!
The tough races are really tough, the easy races are really easy. I know I’m not running the table, but I don’t know where I’ll falter. I just know that I will. If there’s a unifying theme, I think it’s that D’s will struggle in Delaware more than usual, which is exactly what I expect to happen nationwide. Hope I’m wrong. These predictions are also going up a week out, and there’s plenty of movement in some of the races.
With that depressing, but not hopeless, forecast out of the way, here we go:
United States Senate: Chris Coons over Kevin Wade, 58-40%, with Andrew Groff of the Green Party at 2%. I’ll be among the 2 percenters.
US Representative: This provides the true measure of how many people will vote Republican no matter what. Does Rose Izzo get over 30%? I’m going Carney 67%, Izzo 29%, with the Green and Libertarian candidates maybe getting 4%. For me, it’ll be August in November.
Attorney General: Matt Denn will win, does he break 60%? I think he falls shy of that goal. Denn 58%, Kittila 38%, the rest 4%. BTW, although I thought her debate performance was solid, Catherine Damavandi of the Green Party earns my ‘Worst Sign Award’ of 2014. The blue lettering on a green background, coupled with a long name, made her name impossible to read unless I was stopped at a traffic light. Besides, why the bleep should a third party candidate pay extra for a second run-through at the printer’s?
State Treasurer: The question here is whether an inherent registration advantage can overcome a lackluster campaign? It can, but I don’t think it will. I’ll go Ken Simpler 53%, Sean Barney 46%, with David Chandler of the Green Party at 1%. Carper goes back to the laboratory. Memo to Tom and the scientists at Carper Cyborgenics: Next time you create a prototype, try to get him to say more than “I served in the military.” Oh, and a few signs in Brandywine Hundred wouldn’t hurt either. Even if Barney wins, he will have run one of the most uninspired campaigns I can remember.
State Auditor: In an ideal world, Brenda Mayrack should be State Auditor and Tom Wagner should never have been State Auditor. She finally (way too late for my taste) has made incumbent Tom Wagner’s ‘record’ the main issue of the campaign, and is continuously banging the drum on that message. I also think that, although he may have name recognition from his previous runs, the fact that he has next to no presence anywhere in NCC (I haven’t seen a single Wagner sign in Brandywine Hundred) will not help him. However, Mayrack would be a better auditor than she is a candidate. For too long, she tried to be her own campaign manager, a no-no that is taught on the first day of any candidate training workshop worth its salt (BTW, what, exactly, does ‘worth its salt’ mean?) I still think she’s got a shot against the incumbent who has run like he’s served: Done next to nothing. Still, I think it shakes down Wagner 51%-49%. And, yes, Wagner will have won despite having run a campaign even less inspired than that of Sean Barney. In fact, the fact that the Auditor’s race is immediately below the Treasurer’s race on the ballot could be a deciding factor.
Senate District 2: For the life of me, I can’t figure out why the R’s chose to challenge this seat and a couple of other city races. Why drive out turnout even a little bit in overwhelmingly D races this year? Sen. Margaret Rose Henry romps over Robert Martin, even though there are still some disgruntled self-styled leaders who resented her support for Sen. Marshall in the primary. Those leaders would do well to recognize that, by so doing, she has solidified her standing in the Senate Caucus which will lead to, wait for it, yet more consideration for her district. Besides, even if they’re PO’d at Margaret, they’ll be voting D for the rest of the offices.
Senate District 4: Kudos to Sarah Buttner for taking on Greg Lavelle. She’s taking one for the team. However, in addition to everything else, she has geography going against her. The district runs from Brandywine Hundred almost to the Newark city limits. However, it is still a Brandywine Hundred-centric district, and Buttner is from the Newark portion which, I think, is new to the district since reapportionment. Lavelle romps, but Buttner just might run again in a less daunting race.
Senate District 6: Progressives are enthused with the candidacy of Claire Snyder-Hall in this eastern Sussex district. However, I think that incumbent Ernie Lopez wins a full term here. I think the voters see him as a comfortable fit for the district, and see little reason to question their previous judgment. 55%-45% Lopez.
Senate District 10: I’m gonna enjoy the results of this race. John Marino is running as the ‘Christian conservative’ with the full backing of the Christian dominionists and that fundamentalist gay-hating church in the district. Sen. Bethany Hall-Long called them out on their gay-bashing and their disgraceful tactics, and she’s gonna whup Marino. I’d say 63%-37%.BHL still may have a shot at higher office ahead of her.
Senate District 16: Serial bloviator Sen. Colin Bonini faces token opposition from IPOD candidate Michael Tedesco. Bonini, of course, romps. I won’t even claim credit for this one unless I have to pad my record.
Senate District 17: Like it or not, Sen. Brian Bushweller has become Nancy Cook’s de-facto successor when it comes to delivering money to Kent County and Kent County businesses. He’s not gonna lose to the lunatic fringe religious-based candidacy of Kim Warfield.
Senate District 18: Senate Minority Leader Gary Simpson will defeat Patrick Emory in this Kent/Sussex district. Emory was the ‘good ol’ boy’ candidate in the inexplicable D primary to face Simpson. I’ll be interested to see what Simpson’s margin is. He may be getting to the point of being vulnerable going forward. Or he may not.
Senate District 21: First, this caveat: I have no clue. However, I’ll go with Bryant Richardson over incumbent Sen. Bob Venables, 52%-48% in this central Sussex district. My thinking from up north is that voters saw the last election as Venables’ final run, and they gave him what they thought was his two-year valedictory. Venables not only surprised the voters, but he surprised his own caucus when he announced he would run again. I doubt that voters are inclined to give him four more years. I’d encourage impartial observers (party chairs need not apply, though they can reply) to provide a closer-to-the-scene perspective on this race.
RD 2: Stephanie Bolden will win handily, the R’s statewide lose if turnout spikes in this traditionally low turnout eastside Wilmington district. For the record, the R candidate is Richard Dyton.
RD 3: D Helene Keeley once again defeats Delaware’s Bail Bondsman, R Robert Bovell. Turnout spike likely.
RD 4: The R’s are targeting this race, but I don’t know why. My theory? They have very few targets of opportunity, and they see this as one of the best of a bad lot. And Robert Keesler may well have a future, although his libertarian positions were hit-and-miss for me when I met him. Yes, Gerald Brady is a hack, and he’s, um, not aging well. However, he will likely rack up enough of a lead in the senior high rises alone, where he’s beloved, to ensure that the race is not competitive. Yes, it’s a weird district that meanders into solid R country. But the registration figures are solid D. And the Wilmington D’s in this district vote. They’ll vote for Brady. I’d say 60%-40%.
RD 6: Former R candidate (and actor, juggler, and hand model) Lee Murphy denied us comedic relief when he dropped out of the race against incumbent D Debra Heffernan in this Brandywine Hundred district. Fortunately, he was replaced by one Kyle Buzzard, whose real name is Kyle Buzzard. He speaks in generic Rethug sound clips except for his one unique idea: “One idea that I would work tirelessly to implement is the creation of an Aviation Hub in Northern New Castle County.” Should go over really well with folks who are looking for more noise from passing planes. Heffernan turns this Buzzard into carrion, 63%-37%. At least, and this is becoming a theme, the R’s have recruited some younger candidates with possible political futures.
RD 7: Incumbent D Bryon Short faces token opposition from IPOD candidate Robert Wilson in the Brandywine Hundred district. Almost feel guilty predicting a huge Short win, so I’ll only claim credit if my record really sucks. But, he’ll win easily.
RD 8: D Quin Johnson is quite popular in this Middletown-area district, and will easily turn back R Matthew Brown, probably with more than 60%.
RD 9: The District That Becky Walker Forgot. Both R and D operatives believe this race will be very close. Kevin Hensley is a realtor with ties to the Charter Schools movement through his work with MOT Charter. From what I’ve heard, he’s all over the district. Jason Hortiz grew up in the MOT area, coaches youth sports and works in the finance industry. I really don’t like these cookie-cutter R’s running this year, of which Hensley is one, but, based on the mess that Becky Walker caused and based solely on my Spidey Sense, I think Hensley wins, 52-48. We’ve got some real good DL followers in that diistrict, what do you think?
RD 10: Another race both sides are targeting. D Sean Matthews defeated incumbent Dennis E. Williams in this Brandywine Hundred district. Judy Travis is the R challenger. Travis is far to the right of the traditional R mainstream voters in the district, she has been supported every step of the way by the Faith & Freedom Coalition, a Christian dominionist group. She is, however, well-financed, with Michelle Rollins hosting a fundraiser for her. Matthews is a door-knocking machine, he seems to have done a real good job of mollifying Williams’ supporters, if not Williams himself. I think shoe leather defeats religious zeal. A 53-47 win for Matthews.
RD 11: An upset special for the D’s, but don’t get too excited. The voters in this Clayton-based district narrowly sent R Jeff Spiegelman to Dover two years ago. Lynne Newlin never stopped campaigning after her close loss. Both D’s and R’s in Dover were taken aback by Spiegelman’s unstinting rudeness during his first term. I think Newlin wins the rematch, 52-48, marking a rare D pickup this cycle. The best I can say about her is that she’s not as bad as Lumpy Carson.
RD 12: Candidates like Jeffry Porter don’t get enough credit. But they’re valuable to their parties. Porter will not defeat longtime incumbent Debbie Hudson in this Greenville/Brandywine Hundred District. However, he forces Hudson to focus on her race and limits her involvement in other races. In other words, he’s taking one for the team. I’ll be interested to see any weakness in Hudson’s political strength. If she doesn’t run real strongly, this becomes a competitive race in two years, and maybe foretells Hudson’s retirement. Hudson, 62-38.
RD 15: R Matthew Lenzini poses no threat to incumbent D Val Longhurst. While Carper has his cyborgenic assembly line, so do the Rethugs, with their Delaware Leadership Fellows program (it’s technically ‘non-partisan’, but not really) that turns out young buzz-cutted go-getters who speak from the same script. Like Lenzini. While I have no use for Val Longhurst, she’ll win handily here, say 65-35.
RD 16: Should Barney or Mayrack squeak by statewide, the fact that the R’s put up a candidate against the very popular James ‘J. J.’ Johnson will be one of the reasons. I think turnout will be up for an off-year in this generally under-performing district. Johnson will win big over Gregory Coverdale, Coverdale wears a bow tie and has worked for some of the largest financial behemoths in the country. Johnson, 72-28.
RD 19: One of Delaware’s emerging progressive voices, D Kim Williams, is being challenged by James Startzman. Startzman is a realtor and, that’s about it, according to Startzman. It’s one thing to argue that it makes sense to vote for someone b/c they’re not a career politician. It’s quite another to ask people to vote for someone because they have no notable accomplishments whatsoever. I’ll be disappointed with anything less than 70-30, Williams.
RD 20: One of the marquee matchups and a rematch from 2012. Current R Rep. and former state cop Steve Smyk is once again challenged by Marie Mayor. It’s gonna be close, real close. Right-wing gadfly Don Ayotte is also in the race. I don’t know if he tops 1%. I think Smyk prevails 51-48, with the other 1% going to Ayotte. A touch closer than last time. I hope that I have ‘reverse black-catted’ this prediction. Baseball fans will understand that one.
RD 21: Mike Ramone easily turns back a Green Party opponent. Hmmm. I wonder if he stays in the R Caucus moving forward…some of them really don’t like him. And he has a great chance to screw them. He could basically get whatever he wanted with a flip.
RD 22: A three-way race between incumbent R Joe Miro, D John Mackenzie, and Libertarian Steve Newton. Miro is nearing the end of his career. I think he would have been more likely to lose had he not had a primary opponent. However, he was able to win a comfortable victory in September and his campaign team is tested. Newton’s candidacy will be a test of how strong a showing a third party candidate can make. He’s by far the most viable L candidate to have run in recent years. Still, Mackenzie is a strong progressive D who will likely enjoy solid party support, so I see Newton at somewhere around 12% or so. Miro wins, but he may be held under 50%. I’ll go Miro 48, Mackenzie 40, and Newton 12.
RD 29: Something tells me that the less I like Trey Paradee, the better he is liked in his district. He faces R Pete Kramer in a district that saw Paradee ride to a surprisingly easy win over incumbent Lincoln Willis last time. Kramer’s yet another young R (30 or so) who says that business has been ‘mugged’ in Delaware. You gotta give the R’s credit for virtually all adopting the same message, no matter how untrue it is. I think Paradee improves his margin this time, 57-43.
RD 30: Speaker Pete Schwartzkopf and the D House Caucus (especially those who support Speaker Pete) have made this race a high priority. R William ‘Bobby’ Outten is being challenged by former R and current D Jon Gallo. The backstory here is that Outten has said that he likely would have endorsed Gallo to be his successor had he remained an R. I’ve always liked Outten b/c he earned an honest living as a meter reader. Gallo is yet another in an endless line of ‘finance professionals’ who seem to be turning out in droves to run for office. The question of ‘what’s up with that’ will have to wait for another day. He does have an estimable bio and I think it’s only a matter of time before he is elected. Will it be this year? I’m going with Outten, 52-48, but this race is worth watching.
RD 31: D’s are defending the seat left vacant by the for-now retirement of Darryl Scott. The R’s have scored an impressive challenger in Sam Chick. The D’s have countered with Sean Lynn, a Dover councilman and an attorney. Registration favors the D’s over the R’s by 2-1, so Lynn will likely win, 58-42. Like Scott, Lynn opposes the death penalty.
RD 32: Andria Bennett easily turns back the challenge of R (and former IPOD guy) William McVay. 70-30.
RD 33: At one time, I saw this as a pick-up opportunity for the D’s, but I no longer do. I was very surprised at incumbent R Harold Peterman‘s margin of victory in what was expected to be a nail-biter. I also know that, despite a nominal D registration edge over R’s, I’s are more likely to vote R than D, and there are plenty of ’em in this conservative Kent County district. Farmer Kevin Robbins, the D challenger, is not likely to win this time, although his time may come down the road. Peterman, 58-42.
RD 34: Businessman Lyndon Yearick ousted incumbent R Don Blakey in the primary, and faces D Ted Yacucci, who has had a pretty impressive career in media. I really don’t like Yearick’s stands on the issues (click the link), but it’s what every single R is saying. Yacucci has apparently made some enemies among the D’s, which is too bad, as he’d be by far the better representative. Yearick, 55-45.
RD 37: D Paulette Rappa is running an energetic race against the odious R incumbent, Ruth Briggs King, one of the worst legislators in Dover. However, neither registration nor geography is Rappa’s friend. Combining the R’s with the I’s, who tend to overwhelmingly vote R, I don’t see how Rappa can pull this off. 57-43, Briggs King.
RD 39: R House Minority Leader Danny Short fends off token opposition from L James Brittingham. 92% for Short.
RD 41: Only in Sussex County could one of the greatest embarrassments in Delaware legislative history be challenged by someone who is even worse. Incumbent D John Atkins has been invaluable to us here at Delaware Liberal. Whenever thing got boring, John was always there to ‘fire’ up the masses. He is being challenged by one of the most venal people in the state, Richard Collins, head of the Positive Growth Alliance, which publicly believes that the rights of property owners to impose their will at will against the wishes of their neighbors, or the interests of society at large, are paramount. I think Atkins just has too many headlines to overcome this time around, and that Collins wins, 53-47.
NCC Recorder of Deeds: My Main Man With The Tan, Mike Kozikowski, romps once again. In NCC, registration numbers are destiny.
BTW, six NCC Councilmanic Districts, no challengers? That’s pretty sad given the caliber of the sitting councilmembers. At least, some of them.
NCC Sheriff: D Trinidad Navarro rides roughshod over a 3rd Party candidate.
Kent County Recorder of Deeds: Incumbent D Betty Lou McKenna defeats R La Mar T. Gunn. In this race, registration is destiny. However, La Mar T. Gunn is almost an iconic name, the best new name this cycle.
Kent County Councilman At-Large: Incumbent D Terry Pepper is being challenged by Charles Hurd. Pepper wins. Hey, I got nothing here.
Kent County Sheriff: Just looking at the two web pages, I have to think that D Richard Ashley will likely defeat R Jason Mollohan. I mean, just click on endorsements on Mollohan’s page like I did. This is what you’ll find. Not, you know, endorsements. The new sheriff in town will go by the name of Ashley.
Sussex County Recorder of Deeds: D candidate Greg Fuller says he’ll give it “110%”. Which raises the question, is it possible for any recorder of deeds to give it 110%? How would a recorder of deeds give it 110%?Don’t think we’re gonna find out. Incumbent R Cynthia Green wins reelection.
Sussex County Council District 4: If incumbent George Cole doesn’t run, maybe former state representative Shirley Price wins. He ran, she won’t.
Sussex County Council District 5: I’m rooting for D Robert Wheatley here, if for no other reason than his opponent, R Robert Arlett has been endorsed by John Radell of the Faith & Freedom Coalition. However, it’s Sussex County, and I think they elect Arlett. When in doubt, I ask myself who I’d vote for, and pick the other candidate.
Sussex County Sheriff: I just know that you’ve read this far, or at least skipped down here, to read about this race. R Robert T. Lee edged the incumbent Sheriff of Nuttingham, Jeff Christopher, in the R primary. The Democratic nominee is Beau Gooch, former Lewes Police Chief. Christopher is running an official write-in campaign. Oh, did I mention that Gooch is black? I did now, and I think that will impact the race. Here’s how I see it. Christopher’s people will not find it easy to write in his name, they really aren’t that smart. (BTW, does spelling count? How close do you have to get to the right spelling in order for it to count?) Plus, these people might otherwise have stayed home on election day were Christopher not conducting this campaign. They won’t be voting for any D’s, so his candidacy could hurt D’s and help R’s despite Republican concerns. So, Christopher finishes third. Who wins? Here’s the dirty little secret that I think determines the election: many of the conservadems in western Sussex simply won’t vote for a black guy from Lewes for anything, much less a gun-totin’ position like sheriff. While Gooch may get some moderate R votes from eastern Sussex, they’ll be more than offset by white D’s from western and central Sussex crossing over to vote for Lee. Lee wins, Gooch second, Christopher third.
Man, I need a drink!
Tags: Delaware elections 2014, El Somnambulo, Featured, Steve Tanzer Delaware
This all comes down to GOTV. I have a sickening feeling that everything close goes to the R’s (because the Democrat Party (sic) sucks ass, has no coherent message, and therefor no real case to make for why anyone should care).
Republicans, as usual, are all fired up to prove that their bilious nonsense makes sense. What they can’t prove in reality, they can prove at the ballot box. Their ongoing success at midterm elections is all the proof they need that poor people have too much money and “tax cuts create jobs.”
Whoa El… I hear Bow Ties are fly in the black community these days. All the young hip kids are wearing them, you gotta get out of North Wilmington. lol Coverdale 16′
Pete Schwarzkopf supports a closet R in the 30th?… Shocker
WOW! Thanks a lot.
I have been working almost full time building a Party in Sussex-and recruiting great candidates. On Election Night, I was looking forward to quite a few pick-ups, and your predictions throw me for a LOSS of two incumbents. I an sure glad Pete Schwartzkopf does not have an opponent, or El Som would have him losing too!
I an thankful the crystal ball you use in Arden is cloudy (that same crystal ball had me a “winner by 6…”)
Jason is correct in that it is about the ground game…and that edge goes to the Dems. The Sussex Dems are united. The Sussex Republicans are split down the middle (the middle of the far right) and are fighting over the incumbent sheriff running a write-in campaign to keep his seat, the endorsement of Democrat Register of Wills candidate Greg Fuller by Republican State Representative Dave Wilson, and the Independent Party candidacy of former Sussex Republican leader Don Ayotte for State Representative in the 20th (his entire campaign being an attack on Republican incumbent Smyk.
In addition to Wilson’s endorsement of Greg Fuller, we have former Republican Speaker of the House Terry Spence (now a Sussex voter) endorsing Democrat Shirley Price for County Council and also endorsing Democrat Paulette Rappa for State House against Ruth Briggs King.
The Democratic Party in Sussex and the individual candidates have knocked on many thousand doors and called many thousand more voters by phone. Their issues of controlled development in Sussex County, creating jobs here, and actually paying people a liveable wage, are resounding with voters.
I also dispute the repeated assertion that Sussex voters will not vote for an African-American. Though that may be true of some, I point out that African American and Republican Ben Mosely beat Insurance Commissioner Karen Weldon Stewart in Sussex just two years ago–and yes there were pictured of the candidate.
I cannot make predictions with any facts, but I like our chances.
When salt was a medium of exchange, and Roman wages could be paid in salt, “worth its salt” meant “having earned the honest wages” or something similar. Nowadays, it means something closer to “minimally meets requirements.”
Turnout is the name of the game this year. The test is whether GOTV for Dems works across all the sub-divisions and whether the downticket races hold the interest of voters.
I’m not convinced Brady pulls this out. I live in the district and have seen Kessler several times to Brady’s zero. My mother lives in Luther Towers and they love Kessler because he has come to seen them. I think Gerald may have been a little too complacent.
Mitch makes my heart flutter with the possibility that the
Democratic
Party in Sussex may live up to the values and be worthy of the name.
Still, El Som’s take on Snyder-Hall v. Lopez rings true to me. I hope the Sage of Arden is wrong on that one.
Hey, I LIKE what Mitch and the D’s are doing in Sussex. And, I hope I’m wrong on some of the predictions. I think the most likely is Smyk over Mayor, and it’s the one I most want to see us win.
Didn’t notice any mention of the Atkins race, BTW…
Venables squeaks out a win against Richardson. No one in the 21st SD cares how many terms Venables runs for or what Ds from other places think of him, they love him, he brings home the bacon. Richardson is lackluster as a candidate at best, and has no ammunition against Venables because Venables is one of the best Rs in the county. If Richardson wins, it won’t be because of the effort he put into the race, it will be because of the R after his name.
Atkins/Collins will be another nail biter. Collins received call in questions during a debate yesterday and he was less than gracious in his responses (he was a dick). Atkins behaved himself this session, only receiving publicity for a PFA order from his wife and not the usual “do you know who I am” publicity that he’s known for. If Atkins can survive drinking and driving, an offensive touching conviction, using prisoners as farmhands, an angry email to the state cops for pulling him over, burning tires, and using correctional officers as babysitters he can survive a piddley PFA. We’ll see if Atkins’ Teflon coating holds up for one more cycle. (I say it does and every House R breathes a sigh of relief).
RD 20 – Don Ayotte ran for county council in 2012 and picked up over 5,000 votes from within the 20th alone. Ayotte is also a big, well known Sheriff Christopher supporter and every God fearing Christopher supporter will be at the polls on election day lest the Good Lord smite them for not voting. Smyk is bleeding R votes because of his overzealous cop bills and his never-ending trail of moronic statements (because he is actually a moron). Mayor lost by less than 800 votes last time and has an army of locals working for her non stop. I think this is a toss up. I hope this is an upset.
Gooch wins the Sheriff race. All of the Constitutionalists, Rs, tea partiers and Ted Nugent fans will split their votes between Christopher and Lee. Rs had 20% turnout in Sussex for the primary and Christopher and Lee were divided by 21 votes. Gooch is well known in eastern Sussex as the Lewes police chief and a Cape Henlopen football coach, and he is well liked. It will shake out to be a 30-30-40 race. Gooch wins and Sam Wilson will have 4 years with a black sheriff. Poetic justice.
Kevin Wade won’t break 40%. Its a short, and easy to remember prediction.
anon: I LIKE your predictions better than I LIKE my own. If yours are more accurate, I’ll be very happy. Especially if Marie Mayor wins.
My question to you on Smyk/Mayor/Ayotte is: Does Ayotte pull any votes away from Smyk, or do his votes reflect those who are only coming out to vote for Christopher?
Do you have any sense, anecdotal or empirical, that Smyk is losing support he previously had to Mayor or to Ayotte? If the Christopher voters would otherwise have stayed home, then what votes are being lost to Smyk?
I know I didn’t pose that question well, but this is one of the most intriguing races this year, and I’m trying to understand the forces at play.
I agree that Psycho Jeff’s write-in campaign has the potential to hurt democrats. Fortunately, The Interposer against Tyranny and most of his cult reside in the 35th Rep District. Rumor has it that he’s threatened to primary Dave Wilson if (or more likely, when) he loses the Sheriff’s race. I say fortunately because the Christopher Crazies shouldn’t have much of an impact in the 20th Senatorial District. I live in the 20th and am pretty confident Bob Venables will pull it out, this time by an even greater margin than last. Bob’s actually running a campaign this time, and he has the open support of the traditional Republican groups. Also, the local Republican leaders aren’t even supporting Richardson. You won’t see his sign in Danny Short’s yard, and there are no endorsements in Richardson’s flyers. You’d think a guy who owns a newspaper would be better at promoting himself, but he’s been an absentee candidate for the most part. I’ll take Bob 55 to 45.
My bad — 21st. I really should proof read this stuff.
Ayotte not only pulls votes from Smyk, he only pulls votes from Smyk, that’s the beauty of Ayotte’s run.
Smyk, meanwhile, is on the Delaware Campaign for Liberty’s Wall of Shame for his liberty hating, unconstitutional voting record. His hidden compartments in cars law makes conservative Rs cringe, and his vote to increase the minimum wage makes the fiscal Rs wonder if he’s even a republican. Ask Mitch, I bet he knows Rs in the District that not only won’t vote for him, but have been very vocal about it.
YOU should proofread? I’m STILL finding mistakes & typos in my original piece.
Our proofreading is almost as bad as the News-Journal’s…
BTW, the comments so far are precisely what I and, I think, our readers, are looking for. Insight that I don’t provide. Meaning I know there’s lots more out there. Keep it coming.
Thanks, anon. It would be deliciously ironic if a state cop is finally defeated b/c he has gone a step too far in imposing his police mentality on ‘law abiding’ citizens.
How many votes do you see Ayotte getting?
Just being on the ballot gives a candidate a couple hundred votes. Ayotte has name recognition and he’s working the District hard going door to door. If Ayotte pulls 500 votes I think Smyk goes under. 500 votes is very realistic.
The other wild card is the potential for an under vote. If Christopher supporters hit the green “VOTE” button before voting the down ticket, they won’t be able to vote the down ticket. This happened in 2006 with the write in. That also works in Mayor’s favor.
Not necessarily. Smyk took the hard line on the R endorsement battle and argued that committee people who refuse to endorse the entire ticket should be forced to leave the committee. That didn’t sit well with the Christopher people, so I question how many votes Smyk would have gotten from then anyway.
If the Christopher people voted in 2012, they would have voted for Smyk, not Mayor. The voters you cite go under Smyk’s loss column.
BTW – You were remiss to not give some props to David McCorquodale the Green Party candidate in the 21st. I think he has the long term view of this and could be a strong candidate down the road.
You’re right. I apologized to him via e-mail. B-but…it was late at night, and ‘McCorquodale’ proved to be a name too far. I started dropping the names of opponents w/o a chance at about that point.
Fortunately, we have now mentioned his name. And will once more.
Remember that name: MCCORQUODALE!!
I hate making these decisions. There is really no one I am enthusatically voting for except maybe Gooch. He was an excellent police chief. The democrats are mostly inept, self serving and corrupt and the republicans are mosty inept, self serving, corrupt, mean and crazy. So it looks like Dems unless I pull the green levers. But I guess they don’t have levers anymore. Its tough getting old. And I was so hip and cool with my 8 track player and alligator 8 track case. What the hell happened to me…
Anon: What’s your prediction on the number of write-in votes Christopher will receive? He got 5088 total in the primary.
Mouse ^like^
El Som – how does one pronounce MCCORQUODALE!!?
Mick-cork-wha-dale?
I think the angry white folks think if they can elect Christopher, he will declare Martial law, gather up all the illegals in his truck and take them off to somewhere..I don’t get the obsession
Disagree with mouse. Think all DEMOCRATIC candidates are fabulous quality people and candidates.
Well than, I hope I’m wrong
The less you like Trey, the better he does in the 29th. Do you think after the second term he can just register as a republican and be done with it?
But ya have to admire the Republicans. When you can deny objective reality and science, you can make up any crap you want. And there are millions of angry resentful rubes who will gratefully swallow it. And let us not forget, critical analysis is liberal biased ya know
I think it’s Gooch/Lee will be close. I’m calling it a toss up at this point. There is a great deal of beating of the breast (The Rime of the Ancient Mariner) and lamentations of their women (Conan, the Barbarian) regarding Christopher’s write in candidacy. Christopher takes votes from Lee and Lee takes votes from Gooch, except that no one really knows that Gooch is black and some people will vote Gooch either to make sure Christopher has no chance or because the DE GOP has effectively ceased to exist as a party, especially when some of the officials are actually backing Christopher’s campaign. It’s really kinda funny about the ensuing panic and some have been busy doing all they can to discredit Christopher. Anyway, I think it’s a more of a toss up, with a slight edge to Lee, who has kept a pretty low profile, credentials (which really are not required for the job, go figure). I’m in for Gooch, but honestly either Lee or Gooch in my view – ABC Anybody But Christopher.
Mayor shows well, but Smyk has a slight edge even if there is considerable dissatisfaction with him from hard right. Smyk loses some votes that would go to Ayotte, but really there is almost no one that wants to see Ayotte win, even his friends, except of course some of the IPOD folks.
Synder-Hall loses. Lopez is too smooth, except that his subliminal message that he is the “kind of person” we want representing us could be a turnoff. Also his statement about using “faith guidance” in his voting could give people pause.
For Mayor, turnout wins the day and so if the Ds show up, she’s in.
Synder-Hall needs to connect to the people more, even though she is running on the issues. Her position on the Overbrook Town Center for example, did contribute to the withdrawal of the P&Z application because might have affected the outcome of the election. She’s done a fine job of door to door but… she isn’t as smooth as Ernie.
I’m in for Mayor, Synder-Hall, and Gooch. Partially because I like their views (does Gooch have any views – kind of a stealth candidate) but also because I want the GOP to pay a price for being whack jobs. Let’em wander in wilderness for awhile.
I guess I am probably going to go straight D ticket, including the Democratic-lite folks you all love so much (Carper, Carney, whoever). But of course, I’m not a progressive and moderates are fine by me.
If Collins wins over Atkins, PGA will be without a director. I figure that soon-to-be unemployed Vance Phillips would be interested. And PGA might well be interested in Phillips–unless of course the jury in the civil suit for rape and allied charges against Phillips finds for the plaintiff.
If Rich Collins were to win, why would he find an ethical conflict and resign as head of the PGA? He would keep both positions. Not that we will find out. There is no one in the legislature better at constituent service than John Atkins. Collins came close in 2012 for two reasons-Atkins did not take him seriously, and there was a large right wing (anti-Obama) vote. Neither will be repeated.
I get a kick when Rethug talking points go horribly wrong.
Sam Chick has posted on his website that his opponent voted for the gas tax increase in Dover, and that he opposes it:
Just two problems with that scenario: (I) His opponent, Sean Lynn, isn’t a legislator, so he hasn’t voted on this issue; and (2) no vote was EVER taken on a gas tax increase in the House, not even in committee.
Other than that, Chick got it pretty much right.
I think and hope you’re wrong on the Auditor’s race. Wagner won by less than 1% last time and the curtain on his job performance has been pulled farther aside for anyone paying attention.
The Treasurer’s debate tonight was another debacle for Sean Barney. He is going to cost Mayrack votes. The only question is how many and will it be enough to turn the race.
Screw the Green Party. Nader is responsible for the Iraq War by taking away from Gore in 2000 and Houghton took enough votes away in the AG’s race to let Brady get re-elected. This is not Europe where 3rd or 4th or 5th parties are viable. Greens only do more harm than good here in the States.
Hi El Som,
That was an honest mistake. My Facebook manager got confused about which tax Lynn supported (gas tax) and which he actually voted for (voted to increase Dover property tax by 21%).
We caught the error quickly and it was shown to less than 125 people before being fixed. It is already corrected and being re-served to the same audience with the same image and corrected text.
Thanks for covering our race.
Please call me with any questions.
Best regards,
Sam Chick
302-265-3605
El som, I follow the mid state races pretty closely, pretty sure Chick said Lynn voted for property tax increases and said he would support a gas tax. Lynn said it at some meeting both attended then later claimed he didn’t. Not quite sure who said what, but I think Chicks comments were about property taxes.
For having a 2-1 registration advantage, Lynn sure seems to have his hands full. For sure, if Lynn wins, no R will ever hold that seat, not sure anyone else will run as hard as the Chick kid is.
I’ve got one. How do you propose to fund transportation and infrastructure projects going forward? Especially if that $23 mill interchange is to be built to benefit the future Kent County Athletic Complex? Funding for road and infrastructure was way down this year b/c no one wanted to address it in an Election Year. How would you close the funding gap going forward if not with something like a gas tax increase?
The Real Really: Chick posted what I wrote on his FB page. Chick has responded and is correcting it. Thanks for trying to clear it up.
Folks: The reason I asked Sam Chick that question is b/c I went to every available R candidate’s website, and there was unanimity in that they all oppose a gas tax. The language is virtually identical in every case.
OK, fine. We’ve underfunded road repair and infrastructure budget this year. By a lot. Repairing roads, building schools, etc., costs money. So I ask each and every R legislative candidate, excepting one, who I’ll get to in just a minute, to tell the voters: How are you gonna fund these essential projects? Or are you just going to wait until everything falls apart? And, how are you gonna fund that $23 million interchange, Sam, w/o funding it?
The one exception? Judy Travis, who has gone off script again. Oh, sure she opposes the gas tax. But here’s how she claims you can make up the difference (from her Delaware Online survey response):
“Instead of raising taxes and spending more on infrastructure improvements, I would support legislation to use the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ survey to calculate the prevailing wage that all contractors working on State projects such as roads and schools must pay their employees. Presently, Delaware surveys only the contracting companies to calculate the prevailing wage for various job categories. A similar survey done for the BLS has five times as many responses, allowing for a more unbiased calculation of the prevailing wage. Using the BLS survey to set wages would allow workers to be paid a fair wage, but would also save up to $90 million a year on road construction projects and up to $45 million on school construction projects. Delaware must examine every option available in order to spend our tax dollars more wisely. Re-examining our out-dated system of calculating prevailing wage is one of the key issues in saving our taxpayers money on State construction projects. Raising taxes should be the last resort.”
Got that? She proposes to fund more projects by cutting workers’ incomes by $145 million. But…she doesn’t really SAY that, does she? She says we could save “up to” those figures. In fact, it’d be nowhere NEAR those figures, but intellectual dishonesty has never been an impediment for the Rethugs. Oh, and surely there’d be NO damage to the state’s economy if we eliminate $145 million in workers’ earning power.
This is why I call them Rethuglicans. It’s damned easy for come comfy Brandywine Hundred denizen to call for screwing the people who actually do the work by some $145 million.
So, Sam, how you gonna pay for this? If at all?
I agree with Jason330 this all comes down to GOTV but in the 9th I have to disagree el som. It’s Hortiz that’s been all over the district multiple times. There’s not a neighborhood u drive through that doesn’t have his signs and he’s doing pretty good in the misty vale great oak area where he grew up. That could spell trouble for Hensley. Plus Kevin’s reputation as a loving father and “small business” owner isn’t exactly going over well down here. Especially the loving father part. My sense it’s close because of low dem turnout but Hortiz wins by 3..
@Mitch Crane: “If Rich Collins were to win, why would he find an ethical conflict and resign as head of the PGA? He would keep both positions.”
I figured because the PGA director is a registered lobbyist. He could hardly hold office and lobby fellow legislators on behalf of PGA now could he?
When you see the multiple conflicts-of-interest that many of the legislators have, Collins could and will pursue the agenda of the PGA with impunity. He won’t even have to register.
Unethical? Well, yes, but a lot of legislators do it.
For example, they save Del-Tech the cost of paying a lobbyist…
Sean Barney is not going to cost Brenda Mayrack votes. Her unpleasant and arrogant approach is going to cost her votes.
If being unpleasant and arrogant was a handicap, Simpler wouldn’t get more than ten votes.
While I take your point, AQC, the problem is we’ve had a glad-handing politician pretending to be auditor for 25 years. He’s done nothing.
While Brenda doesn’t come across as warm and cuddly, neither should an auditor. If you want the warm and cuddly zero, you’ve got Tom Wagner.
As a rule, a do not trust anyone who is always “warm and cuddly”. I learned early on in my career, when I repeatedly saw people being conned, the statement “but he was such a nice guy!”. My response became “have you ever known a nasty con man?”. I do not trust people who always flatter me and tell be how great I am or how I do not look my age”. I know I am sometimes an arrogant and sarcastic SOB…and I look in the mirror. Give me a cold and impersonal candidate who will be honest and competent over the warm and fuzzy candidate. Brenda Mayrack is competent, qualified, and honest. If she becomes an SOB as State Auditor, and audits every office and account out there, we will have a welcome change. (not that she has the makings of an SOB).
I’m not suggesting Wagner should win. I’m just saying if Mayrack loses, it’s not Barney’s fault. Frankly, if either of them loses it’s because they’ve run the most lackluster, uninspired campaigns I’ve ever seen.
Mayrack has contrasted herself with Wagner, Barney has wrapped himself in the Carper Cocoon. Anyone seen TC’s commercial for Barney? Yep, it’s all about Barney’s military service and being wounded in combat. Is that John Tesh on piano?
BTW, you KNOW that the election is at hand when people try to float ‘sign-stealing’ stories. So, at least as far as I’m concerned, I don’t care what your politics are, we’re not running with any of those allegations.
One thing not mentioned in the Smyk race is ballot placement. He follows Lopez on the ballot. That could be the difference maker for him as Lopez will romp Hall by a larger % than Stayton 2 years ago. BUT, that coupled with “stupid things Steve says” and Ayotte pulling more than anyone would have guessed and you have a very close race. IF he wins he only gets a plurality. I am guessing he squeaks by a two digit number at best.
@Bill Rappa: How many votes is the over/under on Don Ayotte? One hundred? Two hundred?
Neighborhood of 3-4% which is 300 to 400 votes
Interesting comments from “Bill Rappa”. Of course there is no “Bill Rappa” or “Willian Rappa” registered to vote in Delaware and the only “Rappa” registered in Sussex County is 37th RD candidate Paulette Rappa, whose husband is WIlliam Doll.
If “Bill Rappa” were such an expert on the 20th RD and 6th Senate districts, his expertise could at least be proven by knowing the names of candidates. There is no “Ms. Hall” running in the senate district, the candidate is Dr. Claire Snyder-Hall”. The Democrat who lost to Senator Lopez is not “Stayton” but “Staton”.
Thanks for the update Mitch. Sorry if I am not a full timer here. Didnt know it was a blog site limited to Sussex County Delawareans only.
Anyway, I was fortunate enough to see the LWV debate at the high school where Mr. Lopez mopped the floor with your candidate Dr. Mrs. Claire Snyder-Hall. Am also fortunate enough to see the Cape Gazette weekly where I see Lopez’s activities in and around the district. Was also fortunate enough to be down for the SeaWitch parade where I saw, presumed local folks give Mr. Lopez a great ovation when his float came by. And by the way Mitch, both Dr. Snyder-Hall and Ms. Mayor could help themselves greatly by finding a new shill.
Shill? At least I can vote here.
Crane for the win.
Jason, not on election day.
Thanks, Jason. BTW, Mr. Rappa (insert language here), a “shill” is someone who speaks for or on behalf of someone without dislosing who he is or what the relationship is. I have always used my name when I post and, those who read DL regularly, or read a DELAWARE newspaper, would know my position. I am the overworked and unpaid Chair of the Sussex County Democratic (IC Jason) and Claire Snyder-Hall and Marie Mayor are two of the many candidates I support. I do not claim to be unbiased, just educated and principled and I stand for DemocratIC values that Mr. Smyk and Mr. Lopez do not stand for and have not voted for.
Furthermore, your senate candidate has only been able to vote here for 3 years. And apparently, as the ‘education’ candidate in the race, she was NOT endorsed by the teachers union and apparently has NOT voted in a school board race in her brief stay in Delaware.
That will be decided, not by our bon mot, but by Sussex Countians.
Kudos for your service to the party. The number of elected candidates in state office in Sussex districts speaks to your resounding success in such a blue state. Well done sir.
You really are an expert on Sussex County, Sir! The last election was November, 2012. I became party chair in March, 2013. I do not know how many “victories” we will have next Tuesday, but I am proud of the work of my candidates and, though I expect to have some victories, I would rather lose with qualified people who take positions on liveable wage, planning, and treating everyone equally, than win with candidates who don’t.
The takeaway on this is pretty clear: “Bill Rappa” initially posted here in the guise of an unbiased observer. His subsequent posts reveal him to be a Rethuglican shill.
In other words, he tried to mislead the readers. Next!
Still think Sen. Hall-Long in 10 has a shot after her husband’s arrest today?
http://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/local/2014/10/29/husband-sen-hall-long-charged-sign-theft/18137545/
I think she’s gonna win. She had no part in it, she didn’t hide from it, and John Marino is still John Marino.
Oh, and her response was a genuine expression of family values, not what the Faith & Freedom Coalition, which has been slinging the mud down there, claims to define ‘family values’.
Having said that, there’s not much precedent on how people respond to sign-stealing when the thief is caught.
El,
While her words (response) may express her family values, it’s not her words that are on trial here, it was the actions of her husband; as long as the voting public doesn’t hold her accountable for her husbands actions, she may slide through this unscathed. It will be a judgement call for the voters – did she or did she not know about her husband’s actions and whereabouts on 3 separate mornings earlier this week? She says she didn’t and we have no evidence to prove otherwise – all we have is a video of him committing the crime; speaking of “family values”, what kind of example does that set for their teenage child?
“speaking of “family values”, what kind of example does that set for their teenage child?”
Probably a better one than John Marino, former NYC cop, railing against unions on his web site. Last time I checked, he belonged to one as a cop. Yet another hypocritical ‘Murkin ex-cop, because heaven knows we don’t have enough ex-cops in the legislature yet.
Speaking of “John’s Family Values”, given that it referenced a docket number, a mailer I received would seem to indicate that of the two candidates in the Senate 10 race, Marino is the only one with a conviction on his record (supposedly pled guilty to reckless endangerment/driving on some road rage chasing down a teen who pissed him off). I’m most have seen the mail piece by now.