Tuesday Open Thread [10.28.14]
“How can the national polls look so bad for Democrats (see the NBC/WSJ/Annenberg and Washington Post/ABC polls), but the competitive Senate contests all be within the margin of error? Here’s an answer for you: There are two different midterm environments taking place in the country a week before Election Day. The first is the nationwide one, where there does seem to be a wave building for Republicans and where the GOP has a huge enthusiasm advantage. The second election, however, is taking place in the top Senate and gubernatorial battlegrounds, where Democrats have spent a tremendous amount of money building field organizations and getting (as best they can) their side fired up.”
“This tale of two different midterm elections — not too dissimilar from what we saw in 2012 where the national and battleground polls didn’t match up — also helps explain why House Democrats are in trouble in states not holding competitive races like in California, Minnesota and New York (after all, embattled GOP Rep. Michael Grimm could very well win).”
“Why does Christie have to be such a dick about everything?” — Jon Stewart, on the Daily Show, on Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) reaction to the Ebola virus.
Because he’s a dick. Plain and simple.
Here is a look at some recent polling in the Senate Races. The governor’s races I will have tomorrow…
ALASKA–SENATOR
Ivan Moore Research: Mark Begich (D) 50, Dan Sullivan (R) 42.
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Dan Sullivan (R) 48, Mark Begich (D) 44
Harstad Research—D: Sen. Mark Begich (D) 44, Dan Sullivan (R) 44, Others 4
Hellenthal Research—R: Sen. Mark Begich (D) 49, Dan Sullivan (R) 39, Others 7
ARKANSAS–SENATOR
NBC News/Marist: Tom Cotton (R) 45, Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 43, Others 5
Opinion Research Associates—D: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 45, Tom Cotton (R) 44, Others 2
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Tom Cotton (R) 47, Mark Pryor (D) 42
COLORADO–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Mark Udall (D) 47, Cory Gardner (R) 46
Harstad Research—D: Sen. Mark Udall (D) 44, Cory Gardner (R) 43, Others 6
Keating Research—D: Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45, Cory Gardner (R) 44, Others 5
Marist: Cory Gardner (R) 46, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45, Others 3
Quinnipiac: Cory Gardner (R) 46, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 41, Others 6
Rasmussen: Cory Gardner (R) 51, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45
DELAWARE–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Chris Coons (D) 53, Kevin Wade (R) 36
GEORGIA–SENATOR
Public Policy Polling: Michelle Nunn (D) 47, David Perdue (R) 47
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: David Perdue (R) 47, Michelle Nunn (D) 44
IOWA–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Bruce Braley (D) 44, Joni Ernst (R) 44
Marist: Joni Ernst (R) 49, Bruce Braley (D) 46
KANSAS–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Pat Roberts (R) 42, Greg Orman (I) 38
Gravis—R: Greg Orman (I) 47, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 45
Marist: Greg Orman (I) 45, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 44
KENTUCKY–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Mitch McConnell (R) 45, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 39
LOUISIANA–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Bill Cassidy (R) 46, Mary Landrieu (D) 42
Suffolk/USA Today: Bill Cassidy (R) 48, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 41
MICHIGAN–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Gary Peters (D) 49, Terri Lynn Land (R) 41
Detroit News: Gary Peters (D) 48, Terri Lynn Land (R) 33
Rasmussen: Gary Peters (D) 51, Terri Lynn Land (R) 42
NORTH CAROLINA–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Kay Hagan (D) 44, Thom Tillis (R) 41
Marist: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 43, Thom Tillis (R) 43, Sean Haugh (L) 7
Monmouth: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 48, Thom Tillis (R) 46, Sean Haugh (L) 1
SurveyUSA: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 44, Thom Tillis (R) 44, Sean Haugh (L) 5
NEW HAMPSHIRE–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 46, Scott Brown (R) 41
NEW JERSEY–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Cory Booker (D) 51, Jeff Bell (R) 39
NEW MEXICO–SENATOR
Albuquerque Journal: Sen. Tom Udall (D) 50, Allen Weh (R) 43
YouGov: Sen. Tom Udall (D) 52, Allen Weh (R) 36
SOUTH DAKOTA–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Mike Rounds (R) 38, Rick Weiland (D) 25, Larry Pressler (I) 17
Marist: Mike Rounds (R) 43, Rick Weiland (D) 29, Larry Pressler (I) 16
Mason Dixon: Mike Rounds (R) 42, Rick Weiland (D) 33, Larry Pressler (I) 13
Pitiful. Why the Democrat Party (sic) always wants to always fight these midterms out with two arms tied behind their backs annoys the fuck out of me. If Democrat Party strategist think GOTV will overcome having no coherent national brand and voters with No enthusiasm – they deserve all the election night pain that is coming to them.
I’ve seen so many gloom-and-doom stories about the Democrats’ prospects that I wonder if the Democrats haven’t planted half of them, with the idea that they’ll make Republican voters so complacent that they won’t bother to vote.
The polls look good for the GOP, but the only poll that means anything is still a week away. I hope that I’ll celebrate after the election; I won’t do so before it.
The Democrat Party isn’t savvy enough to plant an acorn.
Dumb analysis. Dems have spent more on the Grimm-Recchia race than on just about any other House race in the country. Can’t wait for Chuck Todd to tell me more about why Democrats have disqualified themselves, or took too general of an approach, or i guess now – they took too narrow of an approach.
Just like I look forward to Jason330 try and tell me that voters look for a “national brand” to get excited about voting. Jason – are you telling me that you base your vote off of who they’re electing in Ohio, rather than the candidate in front of your face? I understand that you’re not excited about voting for Carney, but what does Jennifer Garrison’s platform have to do with that?
And if you’re not jazzed about Carney, I heard someone on this blog was going to run as the progressive alternative, maybe you could vote for them instead.
More dismemberment of Thomas Frank:
http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/Why__Barack_Obama_Is_Not_Jimmy_Carter
Next Tuesday around midnight when you are scratching your heads and wondering what the “F” happened, and trying to blame everything but the real cause, (socialism), you might want to take a look at the following video to help you better understand why.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUSRZo1BE5o
@JM: It wasn’t a very convincing dismemberment.
The world is wrong and Thomas Frank is right.
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/10/elizabeth-warren-rejects-thomas-franks