“How can the national polls look so bad for Democrats (see the NBC/WSJ/Annenberg and Washington Post/ABC polls), but the competitive Senate contests all be within the margin of error? Here’s an answer for you: There are two different midterm environments taking place in the country a week before Election Day. The first is the nationwide one, where there does seem to be a wave building for Republicans and where the GOP has a huge enthusiasm advantage. The second election, however, is taking place in the top Senate and gubernatorial battlegrounds, where Democrats have spent a tremendous amount of money building field organizations and getting (as best they can) their side fired up.”
“This tale of two different midterm elections — not too dissimilar from what we saw in 2012 where the national and battleground polls didn’t match up — also helps explain why House Democrats are in trouble in states not holding competitive races like in California, Minnesota and New York (after all, embattled GOP Rep. Michael Grimm could very well win).”
“Why does Christie have to be such a dick about everything?” — Jon Stewart, on the Daily Show, on Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) reaction to the Ebola virus.
Because he’s a dick. Plain and simple.
Here is a look at some recent polling in the Senate Races. The governor’s races I will have tomorrow…
ALASKA–SENATOR
Ivan Moore Research: Mark Begich (D) 50, Dan Sullivan (R) 42.
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Dan Sullivan (R) 48, Mark Begich (D) 44
Harstad Research—D: Sen. Mark Begich (D) 44, Dan Sullivan (R) 44, Others 4
Hellenthal Research—R: Sen. Mark Begich (D) 49, Dan Sullivan (R) 39, Others 7
ARKANSAS–SENATOR
NBC News/Marist: Tom Cotton (R) 45, Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 43, Others 5
Opinion Research Associates—D: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 45, Tom Cotton (R) 44, Others 2
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Tom Cotton (R) 47, Mark Pryor (D) 42
COLORADO–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Mark Udall (D) 47, Cory Gardner (R) 46
Harstad Research—D: Sen. Mark Udall (D) 44, Cory Gardner (R) 43, Others 6
Keating Research—D: Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45, Cory Gardner (R) 44, Others 5
Marist: Cory Gardner (R) 46, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45, Others 3
Quinnipiac: Cory Gardner (R) 46, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 41, Others 6
Rasmussen: Cory Gardner (R) 51, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45
DELAWARE–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Chris Coons (D) 53, Kevin Wade (R) 36
GEORGIA–SENATOR
Public Policy Polling: Michelle Nunn (D) 47, David Perdue (R) 47
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: David Perdue (R) 47, Michelle Nunn (D) 44
IOWA–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Bruce Braley (D) 44, Joni Ernst (R) 44
Marist: Joni Ernst (R) 49, Bruce Braley (D) 46
KANSAS–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Pat Roberts (R) 42, Greg Orman (I) 38
Gravis—R: Greg Orman (I) 47, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 45
Marist: Greg Orman (I) 45, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 44
KENTUCKY–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Mitch McConnell (R) 45, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 39
LOUISIANA–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Bill Cassidy (R) 46, Mary Landrieu (D) 42
Suffolk/USA Today: Bill Cassidy (R) 48, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 41
MICHIGAN–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Gary Peters (D) 49, Terri Lynn Land (R) 41
Detroit News: Gary Peters (D) 48, Terri Lynn Land (R) 33
Rasmussen: Gary Peters (D) 51, Terri Lynn Land (R) 42
NORTH CAROLINA–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Kay Hagan (D) 44, Thom Tillis (R) 41
Marist: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 43, Thom Tillis (R) 43, Sean Haugh (L) 7
Monmouth: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 48, Thom Tillis (R) 46, Sean Haugh (L) 1
SurveyUSA: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 44, Thom Tillis (R) 44, Sean Haugh (L) 5
NEW HAMPSHIRE–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 46, Scott Brown (R) 41
NEW JERSEY–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Cory Booker (D) 51, Jeff Bell (R) 39
NEW MEXICO–SENATOR
Albuquerque Journal: Sen. Tom Udall (D) 50, Allen Weh (R) 43
YouGov: Sen. Tom Udall (D) 52, Allen Weh (R) 36
SOUTH DAKOTA–SENATOR
CBS/New York Times/YouGov: Mike Rounds (R) 38, Rick Weiland (D) 25, Larry Pressler (I) 17
Marist: Mike Rounds (R) 43, Rick Weiland (D) 29, Larry Pressler (I) 16
Mason Dixon: Mike Rounds (R) 42, Rick Weiland (D) 33, Larry Pressler (I) 13