Thursday Open Thread [10.30.14]

Man, you get Republicans into a room with their donors and supporters and they really open up about their plans. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who is inexplicably considering a presidential bid for reasons passing any human understanding, said earlier this month in such a private gathering that “white men who are in male-only clubs are going to do great in my presidency.”

I’m sure, Senator. I’m sure.

Much like my predictions yesterday for all the state races, I will also predict all of the U.S. Senate races as well. Here are some of the latest polls there:

COLORADO–SENATOR–Quinnipiac: Cory Gardner (R) 46, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 39.
NORTH CAROLINA–SENATOR–Elon University: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 45, Thom Tillis (R) 41.
MICHIGAN–SENATOR–EPIC-MRA: Rep. Gary Peters (D) 50, Terri Lynn Land (R) 35.
FLORIDA–GOVERNOR–Quinnipiac: Fmr. Gov. Charlie Crist (D) 43, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 40.
MICHIGAN–GOVERNOR–EPIC-MRA: Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 45, Mark Schauer (D) 43.

Democracy Corps sent out an email yesterday saying if the Democrats win on Tuesday (and by winning I suppose they mean winning enough of the competitive races to maintain control of the Senate) and these are the reasons why:

Reason #1–African American turnout surprised everyone. Black voters are now high turnout voters even in off-year elections — we saw this in Virginia last year and James Carville says it will happen in Louisiana this year. There and elsewhere voter suppression is a visible, ugly race-motivated effort to deny African Americans and Latinos the right to vote and they noticed.

Reason #2–Democrats in Senate and Governor’s races ran on economic issues that affected unmarried and working women and these notorious non-presidential year drop-off voters decided the election matters. Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund and the House and Senate Democratic leaders have been pressing just such an agenda and Ron Brownstein just spotlighted where they are making the difference in the National Journal. Republican opposition to equal pay for women has been the strongest attack against GOP candidates.

Reason #3–The conservative Republican governing model that swept the states in 2010 is deeply unpopular, and conservative governors are immensely unpopular. We see this in North Carolina, Florida, Louisiana, Kansas, Pennsylvania and Maine.

Reason #4–Latino voters notice that Republicans are running as the anti-immigrant party, and they begin to emulate African Americans who see important reasons to vote. They may notice ads from the RGA that accuse Democrats of favoring welfare for illegal immigrants or that the Republican House voted to rescind President Obama’s executive order on the ‘Dreamers.’

Reason #5–The Republican party brand and Republican Party priorities — both deeply unpopular with voters – mattered more than President Obama in the contested states. The national coverage centered on President Obama, but successful Democratic candidates in the states were using paid media to remind voters each day what today’s GOP really believes.