Monday Open Thread [11.3.14] — MY PREDICTIONS for tomorrow.
If you had told Republicans a couple of months ago that they would win Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Louisiana and Arkansas, all the while defending Kentucky, which at the time was the only competitive GOP-held seat, they would have been ecstatic. All they would need is just one more seat to win the majority of 51 from the following Democratic competitive seats: Alaska, Iowa, Colorado or North Carolina. The GOP would bet that they would win at least one of them, most likely Alaska.
I predict that the GOP will win none of them. And they will lose two of their own seats: Georgia and Kansas. That means, in the end, the Democrats will have 52 seats (51 without the Independent Orman) and the GOP will have 48. I could be completely wrong, and the GOP could win 8 seats. But I am not sensing the deep malaise and depression amongst the Democratic electorate that preceded the 2010 blowout. My map:
ALASKA
Public Policy Polling: Dan Sullivan (R) 46, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 45.
Rasmussen: Dan Sullivan (R) 47, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 42.
COLORADO
Public Policy Polling: Cory Gardner (R) 48, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45.
GEORGIA
SurveyUSA: David Perdue (R) 47, Michelle Nunn (D) 44.
NBC News/Marist: David Perdue (R) 48, Michelle Nunn (D) 44.
IOWA
Quinnipiac: Bruce Braley (D) 47, Joni Ernst (R) 47.
CNN/ORC: Joni Ernst (R) 49, Bruce Braley (D) 47.
Rasmussen: Joni Ernst (R) 48, Bruce Braley (D) 47.
Fox News: Joni Ernst (R) 45, Bruce Braley (D) 44.
Des Moines Register: Joni Ernest (R) , Bruce Braley (D) .
KANSAS
Fox News: Greg Orman (I) 44, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 43.
LOUISIANA
University of New Orleans: Bill Cassidy (R) 51, Sen. Mary Landrieu 43.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
WMUR Granite State: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 47, Scott Brown (R) 45.
NORTH CAROLINA
CNN/ORC: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 48, Thom Tillis (R) 46
Fox News: Hagan (D) 43, Tillis (R) 42.
CONNECTICUT
Quinnipiac: Gov. Dannel Malloy (D) 47, Tom Foley (R) 44.
Public Policy Polling: Gov. Dan Malloy (D) 44, Tom Foley (R) 41.
FLORIDA
Quinnipiac: Charlie Crist (D) 42, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 41, Adrian Wyllie (L) 7.
Zogby: Charlie Crist (D) 45, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 38.
Public Policy Polling: Crist (D) 44, Scott (R) 44.
Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/UF Graham Center: Gov. Rick Scott (R) 36, Charlie Crist (D) 36.
GEORGIA
SurveyUSA: Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 47, Jason Carter (D) 42.
ILLINOIS
Public Policy Polling: Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 47, Bruce Rauner (R) 45.
We Ask America: Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 50, Bruce Rauner (R) 45.
MASSACHUSETTS
Western New England University: Charlie Baker (R) 46, Martha Coakley (D) 41
University of Massachusetts: Coakley (D) 47, Baker (R) 44.
MICHIGAN
Public Policy Polling: Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 46, Mark Schauer (D) 45.
WISCONSIN
Public Policy Polling: Gov. Scott Walker (R) 48, Mary Burke (D) 47.
“We are slightly less horrible than the Republicans” will not get the Democrats out in great numbers. D=48 R=52 I=0
I just hope Joe Biden’s prediction (that the Republicans majority will be sensible) comes to pass. (lol!)
I’m going to disagree with your predictions, but we shall see.
And in terms of Biden’s predictions, there will not be the level of bipartisan “working together” that we saw during Clinton’s administration. I think both sides have nurtured this level of divisiveness to the point that nothing will get done, and it’ll just be a perpetual blame game.
” I think both sides have nurtured this level of divisiveness…” Whatever Dude. You just exposed yourself as a dunderhead.
As long as the D’s dont sink below 55/45…..
I think they stand a decent chance of Coat-tailing their way back to a slim senate majority in 2016. Illinois, Wisconsin, Pa, and Florida could all be flipped if Hillary is strong, maybe even New Hampshire. You can also bet on 1 or 2 career-ending sex scandals from a GOP majority.
By 2020, with a new Census, we could see the necessary redistricting (let’s hope for some state-government flips) to give the D’s a chance at the House again for 2022.
THAT is my most optimistic prediction
So, after spending a good amount of time admonishing the Democratic party for not supporting the progressive/liberal agenda, you are defending them by saying they are infallible and haven’t created political divisiveness? And you call me the “dunderhead”?
At least I have the intellectual integrity to admit that neither party is acting in the best interest of the People.
I’m not sure if it optimism or naivete to look directly at polls that rather consistently say one thing and then predict another. Sets one up for disappointment, a la Republicans who couldn’t fathom how Obama would be reelected.
That’s the thing. The polls have not been consistent, and we don’t know what electorate is going to show up. So with most of the polls in the 0-3 point range, they all go either way. Do not be surprised if the Dems win every toss up Senate race, like they did in 2012. But, conversely, I would not be surprised if the GOP wins everything too, including New Hampshire and North Carolina.
Incumbents should be scared, especially if the Independent voters show up.
You are a dunderhead because I’ve been saying that Democrats have been too willing to compromise and there is absolutely no evidence to support this nonsense. ”I think both sides have nurtured this level of divisiveness…”
If you are saying “”I think both sides [The Republican Party and the Democratic Party] have nurtured this level of divisiveness…” That is simply an anti-factual statement.
not entirely.
The Democrats have been very good at appearing to be everything the Republicans say they are. While they haven’t engaged in the same kind of tactics, they sure as shippidy havent done anything to really defend against them. In that respect, they are both to blame.
So, the “war on women” rhetoric isn’t divisive?
Get your head out of the sand and look around; if you truly believe that it’s a “anti-factual statement”, then you aren’t paying attention.
The Democratic Party have been nothing short of obsequious to the Republicans. How you derive “they all do it” from that is beyond me. Perhaps your perspective has been warped by too much Fox News which loves the false equivalency. eg. One Democratic activist = the whole Democratic Party.
no. It’s truth.
Wonder how much abuse the lower middle class has to take before they figure out the sex crazed party works against them
Oh, I get it now, you’re one of those “if you don’t agree with my you must be one of those ‘Fox News’ viewers”; yep, head in the sand. I guess that makes it easier to be a pawn in their game.
Jason, it isnt fox news, it’s Info Wars. Info Wars geeks think they are independent thinkers… common mistake. rLOVEution 2014!!!!!!!!!!
Jesus Terry. You seem smart, but are living in a “they both do it” fantasy world. Wake up bro. I don’t know how you came by that malady – but if you REALLY think that the GOP and the Dems are equally culpable for the intense divisions we see now, see a doctor. You are sick.
You can’t have divisions unless both sides are playing the game. A one side “argument” is just rhetoric. For instance:
Gun Rights
Abortion
Gay Rights
Immigration
Obamacare
These are all issues that both sides use to create “wedges” between the populous. Unfortunately, these are not the issues that are the most important facing our nation. But, instead of addressing the important issues, they use these wedge issues to further divide and cause discord – hence, both sides are being divisive.
Specious reasoning. That both sides are divisive does not mean that they are equally responsible for divisiveness. You want to see the world that way – so you do.
For those of us who live in reality, it is impossible to deny that Republicans have thrown out the traditional comity allowed the system to work. Ask yourself, is the very idea of “compromise” an anathema to Democrats as it is to the modern GOP?
You said “equally”, not me; don’t try to spin my words to fit your reasoning. Both sides are culpable and just because 1 side did it 1 less time than the other does not make them any less guilty.
“…just because 1 side did it 1 less time…” Ha. That discomfort you are feeling is called cognitive dissonance.
No discomfort here.
Remember, I’m the only one in the conversation that can argue without using insults.
Terry,
Regarding you list….
Gun rights… I dont have an argument there. The Dems create a lot of noise about “doing something” every time some freedom lover’s gun is used to kill children, but nothing come of it.
Abortion… the GOP wants to restrict access. They want to force invasive procedures on women who want to make a choice for themselves. Democrats want to stop this.. please tell me how this is Both sides.
Gay Rights…. would you call the people pushing for racial-civil rights “divisive”? maybe you could…. but the are fighting for the right thing. The GOP wants to limit rights based on their personal faith and the faith of their voters. There ARE 2 sides to this issue. One of them is wrong.
Immigration: it depends how you view America. I view it as a safe haven for all people. I also view most of the “illegals’ as people who just want a better life. If you look at the GOP messaging on this…. the messaging that is available on FoX News (that is just fact, not bluster) it is clear the view all immigrants as ebola infested terrorists. They make people afraid. How is that more divisive than say…. advocating for turning them into productive, tax-paying citizens.
Obamacare… the name “Obamacare” itself is a divisive term created by the Right. The death panels were an outright lie. Free health care for illegals (see Immigration) was a lie. Most of the things people dont like about the Affordable Care Act (the law’s ACTUAL name) are lies formed on Right Wing media…. (mainly, fox news)
I look forward to your uninsulting response where you show me all the divisive things the DNC has done. 🙂
The DNC has pointed out all the misinformation and visceral distractions of the sex crazed republican right. That’s divisive, lol
Dems meekly object to being kicked in the balls. Divisive!
Anyway, if they were only as divisive as people perceive them to be, the Democrats would not be losing the Senate [ D=48 R=52]
“Terry,
… I look forward to your uninsulting response where you show me all the divisive things the DNC has done.”
But what has the DNC done? These have been “hot-ticket” issues for some time that generate quite a bit of media attention (and emotional voter response), but what has either side done with these issues, except for bring them up again, and again, and again?
Again, my goal here was not to dissect the merit of each party’s handling of divisive issues – it was to point out that as long as the parties continue to allow divisive issues to be the central topic of discussion, nothing of real significance will get done.
Which party has made sure it does everything possible to avoid governing?
Start here: http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/
Pay attention to page 4.
The Republican party dreads winning the Senate because they would actually have to govern. And they are FAR from unified on actual governance issues.
The polling data becomes less and less reliable since fewer and fewer people have landline phones. And those that do have landline phones tend to be older and more conservative. The pollsters keep adjusting for this, but they really don’t know what a large block of the voting public is thinking.
Tomorrow should be fun… even in the Dems lose.
The GOP is in a terrible place and their utter shellacking will take place in 2016.
SussexAnon,
There’s another thread here on DL from earlier titled “Dems Running From Obama-Headed Where Exactly?”
Now, wouldn’t that suggest that it’s not only the Republicans but also the Democrats that “are FAR from unified on actual governance issues”?
Incumbent candidates in battle-ground states are afraid to admit that they voted for Obama’s policies – it that doesn’t reek of a non-unified governance in the Democratic party, I don’t know what does.
Did I suggest anywhere that D’s are unified? No.
My point was that R’s have been bitching for years that they didn’t have control of the Senate. Now that it looks like they will have it. They get to do what they want. Which will mostly likely be shut down the gov’t, have endless votes to repeal Obamacare and useless investigations accusing Obama of doing what previous presidents have done without complaint.
And if you paid ANY attention to the last gov’t shut down, you would know that Rs controlling both chambers is going to be a two ring circus and I, for one, will be bringing popcorn.
Step up R’s be who you are. Own it. Bring that “comprehensive immigration reform” bill you claim you have been working on for going on 10 years. Or the Social Security reform. Balanced budget amendment. Or the replacement to Obamacare. No excuses now, you have the senate and the house.
And when Harry Reid blocks a cloture vote? Try not to cry too much, you pulled the same crap the whole time Ds had the Senate. Because only in the American Senate is 56/100 is a majority, not 51/100
And be sure to get that lawsuit filed that Boehner failed/forgot/dog ate.
“Did I suggest anywhere that D’s are unified? No.”
Fair enough…
I’m trying to stay cautiously optimistic based on the last time we had a Democratic President and Republican Congress. But again, as I pointed out earlier, the parties are much more divisive now than they were 20+ years ago, so I don’t know that the Executive and Legislative branches will be willing to work together (although Biden thinks so).
All I want at this point is a Budget; 8 years of Continuing Resolutions is enough.
Boehner said the President can’t be trusted on immigration, so he doesn’t see how talking to him will be useful.
Not sure how that is going to change.
The fun will start when R leadership actually has to talk to Obama. And as we learned from the healthcare debate, the Rs bring a knife to a gun fight when it comes to debating Obama on anything.
Or Senate votes, Obama vetoes, Obama says he is willing to talk, R’s throw a hissyfit, gov’t closes again. Rinse. Repeat.
As an unaffiliated (Independent) I can help but try to be optimistic. Over the last 10 years or so, I have watched the hyper-partisan political polarization do a lot of damage to the American People.
Expect exit polls tomorrow to show a higher than normal turnout from Independent voters.
Increased Indy votes are the result of the Republican’s hyper-partisanship. You can be sureif that.
So, if the GOP wins the Senate due to a large Indy turn-out, it’s the Republican’s fault?
Is that what you’re saying?
No that is the obsequious Dems fault. If the R’s have alienated the sensible vote with their hyper partisanship , I’s help the dems.
And that indy vote will vote for “change” by giving the so-hyper-partisan-I-won’t-even-talk-to-the-president” (or fellow congress members for that matter) a wake up call to come together in a big kumbuya moment?
Now that is some seriously optimistic magical thinking! Best of luck.
We don’t even have “partisanship ends at the borders” anymore.
It was comforting listening to Mark Levin preemptively blasting the incoming Republican majority for caving in to the Obama administration.