If you had told Republicans a couple of months ago that they would win Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Louisiana and Arkansas, all the while defending Kentucky, which at the time was the only competitive GOP-held seat, they would have been ecstatic. All they would need is just one more seat to win the majority of 51 from the following Democratic competitive seats: Alaska, Iowa, Colorado or North Carolina. The GOP would bet that they would win at least one of them, most likely Alaska.
I predict that the GOP will win none of them. And they will lose two of their own seats: Georgia and Kansas. That means, in the end, the Democrats will have 52 seats (51 without the Independent Orman) and the GOP will have 48. I could be completely wrong, and the GOP could win 8 seats. But I am not sensing the deep malaise and depression amongst the Democratic electorate that preceded the 2010 blowout. My map:
ALASKA
Public Policy Polling: Dan Sullivan (R) 46, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 45.
Rasmussen: Dan Sullivan (R) 47, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 42.
COLORADO
Public Policy Polling: Cory Gardner (R) 48, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45.
GEORGIA
SurveyUSA: David Perdue (R) 47, Michelle Nunn (D) 44.
NBC News/Marist: David Perdue (R) 48, Michelle Nunn (D) 44.
IOWA
Quinnipiac: Bruce Braley (D) 47, Joni Ernst (R) 47.
CNN/ORC: Joni Ernst (R) 49, Bruce Braley (D) 47.
Rasmussen: Joni Ernst (R) 48, Bruce Braley (D) 47.
Fox News: Joni Ernst (R) 45, Bruce Braley (D) 44.
Des Moines Register: Joni Ernest (R) , Bruce Braley (D) .
KANSAS
Fox News: Greg Orman (I) 44, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 43.
LOUISIANA
University of New Orleans: Bill Cassidy (R) 51, Sen. Mary Landrieu 43.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
WMUR Granite State: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 47, Scott Brown (R) 45.
NORTH CAROLINA
CNN/ORC: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 48, Thom Tillis (R) 46
Fox News: Hagan (D) 43, Tillis (R) 42.
CONNECTICUT
Quinnipiac: Gov. Dannel Malloy (D) 47, Tom Foley (R) 44.
Public Policy Polling: Gov. Dan Malloy (D) 44, Tom Foley (R) 41.
FLORIDA
Quinnipiac: Charlie Crist (D) 42, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 41, Adrian Wyllie (L) 7.
Zogby: Charlie Crist (D) 45, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 38.
Public Policy Polling: Crist (D) 44, Scott (R) 44.
Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/UF Graham Center: Gov. Rick Scott (R) 36, Charlie Crist (D) 36.
GEORGIA
SurveyUSA: Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 47, Jason Carter (D) 42.
ILLINOIS
Public Policy Polling: Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 47, Bruce Rauner (R) 45.
We Ask America: Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 50, Bruce Rauner (R) 45.
MASSACHUSETTS
Western New England University: Charlie Baker (R) 46, Martha Coakley (D) 41
University of Massachusetts: Coakley (D) 47, Baker (R) 44.
MICHIGAN
Public Policy Polling: Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 46, Mark Schauer (D) 45.
WISCONSIN
Public Policy Polling: Gov. Scott Walker (R) 48, Mary Burke (D) 47.