First off, I must admit, I was wrong. I was wrong in my national predictions. With all the polls in the competitive races close, within the margin of error and most within 2-3 points, I wrongly assumed our superior GOTV operation would make up the deficit like it had before. But our voters just did not turn out. And I am very pissed about that. Some of them are emo-progressives who feel it is their right to punish the party by not voting whenever they feel like the party has not been pure enough. Others of them just cannot be bothered unless the only politician that they know of, i.e. the national leader, i.e. the President, is on the ballot. To all of them I say, fuck you. I am almost tempted to argue that the Democrats in Washington should immediately repeal the entire social safety net, all regulations, everything that they take for granted, FDA, EPA, etc. etc. etc. and then let them all suffer horribly, just to prove to them that these elections matter, and that you actually are voting for policies and not people. Then I pull myself back from that. Because I know it is what the GOP wants. Not out of any respect or concern for my lazy and/or purist colleagues.
We lost last night for a very simple reason: we did not turn out our base voters. Now, why they did not turn out and what to do about that can and will be debated. But the only reason we lost is that we did not turn out. The proof of that was the Virginia Senate race and the Maryland Governor’s race. Neither were supposed to be close. Reputable polling firms on both showed clear Democratic leads. And yet, we lost one and almost lost another.
The good news about losing simply because our base did not turn out is that it is something entirely within our control to fix. And it makes the loss less devastating. Indeed, the pendulum is already starting swinging back to the left as we speak. And if the GOP wants to speed up the swing of that pendulum, then all they need to do is pretend that GOP policies (which they did not campaign on) were endorsed and vindicated last night. Go head, try to repeal Obamacare, try to pass more tax cuts for the rich, try to pass national abortion bans. Try to impeach the President. I dare you. You will be rudely awakened.
But I digress.
No, the real devastating losses are those when you do turn out your base, but the GOP also turns out theirs, and they win. That is depressing. That is when you question everything. That was what happened in 2004. It is a dark few months after that election. And as history showed, the light came round again.
And I was wrong in my local predictions. I thought the same voters voting for Chris Coons, John Carney and Matt Denn would also vote for Sean Barney and Brenda Mayrack. I kinda understand Barney losing. After the embarrassment that was Flowers, some voters may have just tossed the GOP a bone and said, hey look, let’s not go with another newcomer. But Wagner just mystifies me. He doesn’t do his job, and is an aging gadfly. And he wins. It is obvious the job is his until he dies or retires.
I correctly predicted, much to the protest of many of our Sussex colleagues, that Atkins (41st RD) and Venables (21st SD) would be go down to defeat. And I am not at all displeased with that outcome. It is preferable to have actual Republicans filing those seats rather than Democrats who always vote Republican on any issue of importance. Even if it denies the Democrats the super majority. I also correctly predicted that Kevin Hensley would win in the 9th. My only incorrect prediction in the General Assembly was that Rob Keesler would upset Gerald Brady in the 4th RD. He got 40%, forced Brady to campaign for the first time in years, and I predict he will be back.
Now… as for my President and the Democrats in Congress, which includes are Triple C Troika of Carper, Coons, and Carney, I have a few words for you. Instructions and demands, really.
First, Nancy Pelosi. Dead. Steny Hoyer. Dead. Chris Van Hollen. Dead. Harry Reid. Dead. Dick Durbin. Dead. Every single member of the Democratic Congressional Leadership must resign their posts today. Not their seats in Congress, but their leadership positions. They have had a nice run. The House Dem Leadership above held a majority for four years (2006-2010) after four years in the minority (2002-2006). Now they have had an additional four years in the mixed minority/majority (2010-2014) and we are poised for two more at least. Twelve years is enough for this entire leadership team. No, Steny and Dick and Chris, you all don’t promotions now that Harry and Nancy are out. You all are out. Time for a complete blood transfusion.
Second, running scared, away from issues, away from other people in your political party, does not insulate you in a negative political environment. It makes you look weaker than a wet noodle with a heart condition. Seriously, when you run away from past votes, from your very own political party, it makes you voters know you can be swayed. Stop running away from your party’s successes. Obamacare is the obvious example, and Allison Lundergan Grimes in the obvious candidate we are talking about here. She refuses to admit that she voted for Obama. She refused to campaign on Obamacare/Kentucky Kynect, the latter of which is the state exchange set up under Obamacare, which is immensely popular in the state and that has insured 400,000 Kentuckians. AND SHE RAN AWAY FROM IT, AND REFUSED TO SAY SHE VOTED FOR OBAMA. I am glad she lost and I want her and her entire campaign exiled from the Democratic Party for all time. If I can deport them to Mars I would. Damn wimps. The simple answer to that disqualifying question (and yes, Chuck Todd was right, it was disqualifying) “I was proud to vote for Barack Obama, who stands up for the middle class, who protects our Social Security and Medicare, and who is fighting to bring affordable health insurance to Kentuckians through Kynect. So I am damn proud of my vote and I would do it again if I could.”
That is how a real Democrat answers. And if some smarmy consultant you pay too much tells you that that answer will hurt you in the polls, after you punch that consultant directly in the face, you then fire that consultant. If you lose an election than you lose an election. But I’d rather lose as a Democrat going down fighting for what I believe in, than as some poll tested false representation of myself designed to obfuscate the fact that I am a Democrat. I mean, if you win by hiding what you believe, then your mandate is what exactly? To only behave like the guy or gal you just beat? To make all the sacrifices that are necessary in running for public office, you better do it standing for what you really believe in, rather than in what you do not.
Third, Brian Beutler lays out what the President must do now, and a replay of 2011 is not on the menu.
The concessions seemed then [in 2011 after the GOP won the House], and still seem to this day, like an error. But there was at least some logic to them. The Republican wave in 2010 was genuinely historic. In its wake, Obama had good reasons to wonder whether the voting public would still have his back if he resisted Republicans without giving their agenda a hearing. Counterfactuals are a tricky business, but as foolhardy as Obama’s 2011 strategy seems in hindsight, he and the Democrats recovered and won a satisfying victory in 2012.
None of that logic holds today. The past six years have given Obama no reason to believe Republicans are good faith bargaining partners. But even if they had, his political salvation, and the best interest of his allies isn’t in cutting conservative-leaning deals with the fully Republican Congress. It’s in the kind of partisan governing and campaigning he embraced after Republicans nearly sabotaged the economy in July 2011.
Republicans had an excellent night Tuesday. But they didn’t roar through the gates like they did in 2010. The argument that the 2014 Senate midterms, clustered heavily in the south and plains states, are a grand repudiation of a presidency that, while extremely productive, has been in check for four years, rings hollow. [..]
But he has no reason to concern himself with whether conciliation or combat is a wiser re-election strategy. His twinned political responsibilities now are cementing his own legacy, and shoring up his political base, so he can hand it off to the next leader of the Democratic Party. He can’t do that by undermining his own achievements and sidestepping the issues his core supporters care about.
And this is where Congressional Democrats’ reflexive tendency to recoil from Obama when he’s down will come into tension with their own best interests. Running away from Obama might—might—make sense for Southern Democrats running in a midterm. But in 2016, the Democratic nominee, and the Democrats riding her coattails, won’t have that luxury. Obama’s base is still vast and loyal, and won’t necessarily vote with the same enthusiasm for a Democratic Party that tries to pretend he and his presidency aren’t particularly relevant.
Running away from Obama did not make sense in a midterm. All who did lost anyway. If they did not run away, then maybe the base turns out, and then maybe they win. So Southern Democrats can go fuck themselves.
It is time to go to war.
The first thing the President can do is name Tom Perez as his next Attorney General and demand confirmation hearings and a vote during the lame duck session. Yes, the Republicans will scream. Who the fuck cares? If the Republicans were in the same boat, it is what they would do. Democrats need to be as cutthroat as Republicans. The current Senate is in office until January 2, 2015. Use it. Who cares if the Beltway elite bellow about it. Pass anything else you want during the lame duck too. Any other nominations. Any legislation that will not be filibustered. Present it as cleaning up the business of the old Congress. Which is what Mitch McConnell already wanted to do before his Majority Leadership began. Accept his offer and proceed. Any Democrat who disagrees can leave the party or resign.
Second, the reason why the economy is a concern for the public despite the enormous progress and success the economy has witnessed since 2009 is because the middle class still feels squeezed due to income inequality. Hillary and Obama should do a pow wow on this. She has already indicated it will be a campaign theme of hers, and he can position his coming vetos (and there better be many of them) on fighting for the middle class and against income inequality.
Third, the Democrats will now pick up the tool of obstruction. Every bill must get 60 votes. Every piece of legislation. The rules Republicans employed must be the same that we now employ. Any Democrat that disagrees can leave the party or resign.
They will do best not to fracture on the assumption that the public just gave the hushed Republican policy agenda a vote of confidence, but to oppose it with confidence that when it’s laid against the Democratic agenda two year from now, the public will reject it. That means standing pat if and when Republicans try to slash taxes, weaken environmental regulations, damage Obamacare, and maximize the deportation of low-priority offenders. It means not voting in politically expedient ways and hiding behind Obama’s veto, but borrowing from Majority Leader-designate Mitch McConnell, who famously boasted that during Obama’s first term, Republicans “worked very hard to keep our fingerprints off [Democratic] proposals, because we thought—correctly, I think—that the only way the American people would know that a great debate was going on was if the measures were not bipartisan.”
That the new Democratic minority will be more liberal than the outgoing majority will make this task easier, as will the fact that the next Senate election will be nearly as daunting for Republicans as this one was for Democrats.
Embrace the Veto. Coordinate with Hillary. Obstruct like a Rethug. Fight like you believe in something. Stop running scared.
Do all that, and hell, you may even win the House back with the Senate in 2016.