Delaware, meet your next Governor – Ken Simpler
The mainframe at the home office in Omaha has crunched the numbers and all signs point to Simpler. Follow me below the fold for the breakdown.
First the Democrat Party Candidates in order of probable success:
1) Beau Biden – The largely MIA attorney general, not running.
2) Matt Denn – The attorney general-elect, ex-insurance commissioner, and only genuine Democrat in the party. Being the only genuine Democrat in the state, his pockets aren’t deep enough to take on Carney head to head. If Carney stumbles or decides to spend more time with his family, who knows?
3) Tom Gordon – New Castle County executive, would love to be Governor, but would have to beat John Carney in a statewide primary to get the the opportunity. Not gonna happen. That leaves…
4) John Carney – Congressman, ex-lieutenant governor, recent blow-out winner for re-election. Carney will take all the wrong messages from his recent win and believe that he is well loved throughout the state. He isn’t. He is a milquetoast career politician who believes in one thing, being elected. Oh sure, he’ll raise money by the truckload, but so what? In a small state like Delaware, a disciplined and well run ground game (like the one Simpler ran against Barney) can level the playing field. Especially against a wishy-washy candidate who can’t stomach taking a clear stand on anything.
The Republicans….
1) Lacey Lafferty – The only person currently announced. This retired state trooper walked in the Middleton Christmas parade this weekend dressed up as The Child Catcher from the film ‘Chitty Chitty Bang Bang’ and children along the parade route were duly frighten. Lafferty is the best possible primary opponent for Simpler. She is so crazy and over the top that Simpler can keep his non-partisan light blue and yellow motif going and simply ignore her and run against Carney from the outset. Team Simpler will have to thread the needle and not appear to be handed the nomination, but given Copeland’s recent success, I think he has bought some goodwill among the lunatics that comprise the GOP base. That leaves….
2) Ken Simpler – Ivy League legacy and treasurer-elect. Simpler is the only Republican to have run and won statewide. While he claims to be interested in being Treasurer, who is really interested in being Treasurer? Nobody, except as a means to possibly run for Governor sometime. If this is Simpler’s time, it is his time. He’ll be praying that the Dems continue to have no coherent message and the National GOP nominates someone at least competitive because a bit of a surge will help. But even without help at the top of the ticket, team Simpler has demonstrated an ability to expose the weaknesses of (allegedly) strong Democratic candidates. In the general election as in the GOP primary, he’ll have to thread the needle and keep the lunatics on board while appearing to glide above the toxic fumes emitted by the Republican party faithful. He will most likely do that by meeting in person with key teabag players in steam-rooms or saunas where he can tell them whatever lunatic bullshit they want to hear. Again, I think even the most lunatic GOPer is hungry enough for the Governorship to put the civil war on hold for a while.
So it’s Simpler in a photo-finish. If it is a big year for Republicans it is Simpler 52, Carney 47.
Tags: Featured, John Carney, Ken Simpler
Been smoking that wacky weed again,ahey . CARNEY will beat goofy 55-45 .
Can Simpler count on a repeat of Democrats taking out his strongest opponent like they did for Treasurer? Probably not.
could be. Let’s hope the D’s run someone other than Carney… he’s not getting any more of my votes.
Honestly, it could be what the progressive movement needs. For years the Dem party here in Delaware has not had to compete. They’ve gotten inbred and lazy. I say burn the forest down and let the new trees grow.
Here, here. Although, Carney still has some time to reinvent himself and be an actual Democrat. But why would he change at this point?
The milquetoast-centrist-career-politician thing has been working for years. He has never lost a race to a Republican, so why suddenly develop interests in issues?
Carney has a deep interest in austerity, deficit scare-mongering, and Social Security cuts like Carper. I know because I sat through one of his Concord Coalition dog and pony shows.
All true. He is the worst type of Democrat on all of that. If someone reminds me of that prior to the election, I’m sure I’d vote for the other guy. (Provided the other guy isn’t a Republican)
Yeah, what exactly is the difference between Carney and Ken Simpler’s fiscal plan for Delaware?
Semantics
“Can Simpler count on a repeat of Democrats taking out his strongest opponent like they did for Treasurer? Probably not.”
He can’t count on it, but if Gordon wins the primary — and he has a strategy for doing just that — Simpler can win the general.
Bracing for 20 months of man-crushes on Simpler.
@JM: I think Jason is writing about his fears, not his hopes.
I don’t care for Carney’s economic positions, but if it’s Carney vs. Simpler, that’s an easy choice. If we survive Markell, we can survive Carney. I doubt we would survive Simpler.
Geezer points out the other path Simpler has to the Gov’s office. No doubt, it is the path Simpler, Inc. is ardently hoping for.
Re man crushes: For all his strengths, his temperament seems unsuited for politics. Meeting him could be an effective cure for anyone crushing on the guy. Carney seems more comfortable mixing with peasant like myself.
Good points all. It is possible that JC, should he run for governor, would again be running against JM, by stressing the need for a fresh start, while at the same time valuing the outgoing governor’s support against the atrocious Gordon. One possible area for separation from the incumbent: public school policy.
Carney could plausibly run as a friend of the DSEA. It would go against his natural inclination to disguise his Democratic sensibilities, but it is possible.
So the republicans will naturally attack Simpler for not finishing his term like they did with Denn, right?
Simpler hasn’t even done anything yet. Lets see if he stubs his toe with the powers that be like others before him.
Downstaters love Carney.
You know the answer to that one.
They’ll take a real Republican over a fake one though.
I get the feeling that Simpler is playing a long game. Flowers thought he was, but he couldn’t control his ego. I get the impression that Simpler is patient. If 2016 isn’t setting up right, he might let it go and allow Greg Lavelle to fall on his sword. If it looks like a good year is brewing for Republicans in 2016, I’m sure Simpler is the guy.
Blue states elect Republican Governors all the time. Just within a very short drive, you have VT, RI, MA, CT, MD, NJ which all elected Rs during the last 10 years. Even here, Minner only got 51% in 2004.
How about a Simpler/Carper match-up for Senate? Old republican vs. new?
Blue states tend to keep blue Senate delegations. They’re more willing to let (normally business minded) Rs do the running of government than they are to let somebody express their R ideology in a more debate focused forum like the Senate.
Carney’s economic platform is more democratic than Jack Markell’s. You confuse the fact that Jack likes the LGBT community with him actually being a democrat. The traditional democratic loyalists all supported Carney last time (labor, blacks, etc.) the only people who did not was DSEA (idiots), liberals (who thought Jack gave a shit about them), and republicans.
And watch the way Matt Denn runs the AGs office. Just like Jack, I highly doubt he is as liberal as you all think. He’s anti-marijuana, hasn’t said anything about mandatory minimums, and supports the death penalty. Just because he’s smart, short, unintimidating, and friendly it does not make him liberal.
If Denn runs the AGs office as effectively and as focused on the right things, as he ran the IC’s office – we are getting a huge upgrade.
As for Markell, I think you are right. As for Carney, if he is such a great Dem, how do you explain his being a shill for the Austerity/Cut Social Security industry?
@Bane: I think Denn’s status as the Great Liberal Hope can be traced to his pro-consumer actions and attitude as Insurance Commissioner. You are correct that, as welcome as a consumer-first IC was, it’s not a guarantee of classic liberalism.
Jack Markell has created a monster in simpler
I think you mean that Chip Flowers created a monster in Simpler. Lest we forget, Jack Markell’s choice for treasurer was Velda Jones-Potter — arguably an even worse choice than Chip Flowers or Ken Simpler.
Ken Simpler or Cris Collinsworth?
Bill Lee should have won that election in 2004
Matt Denn doesn’t like charter schools, either. Not to worry, though, the powers that be do not want Denn as Gov.
Liberals supported Markell because of several progressive issues that Carney did not support. Specifically, LGBT issues. Carney, at the time, was clearly uncomfortable talking about it. There was no mistaking Markell for a moderate republican in the 1980s mold, at least to me.
Markell also ran on a platform of bringing a new economy to Delaware as the old model that the (current) labor movement loved so much has gone the way of the dinosaur. And that didn’t turn out so well. Carney supported offshore wind and wanted Wilmington to be a hub for manufacturing. That happened late in the race. That didn’t turn out well either, as offshore wind has hit many roadblocks and will continue to do so.
Carney believes in bipartisanship, just about at any cost, as a means to move the ball forward. Thats his approach. And with the current population trends for southern counties, a bipartisan compromiser is going to be required. Even Pete Schwartzkopf knows that.
I am curious as to why Velda Jones-Potter was such a terrible Treasurer?
he’s too odd looking…much like Romney, just a touch too plastic…plays well in board rooms I suppose, but not for a governor.
If he get’s his name out there…without his face…maybe he has a chance. But against the wizened looking Carney, he would have no shot