The mainframe at the home office in Omaha has crunched the numbers and all signs point to Simpler. Follow me below the fold for the breakdown.
First the Democrat Party Candidates in order of probable success:
1) Beau Biden – The largely MIA attorney general, not running.
2) Matt Denn – The attorney general-elect, ex-insurance commissioner, and only genuine Democrat in the party. Being the only genuine Democrat in the state, his pockets aren’t deep enough to take on Carney head to head. If Carney stumbles or decides to spend more time with his family, who knows?
3) Tom Gordon – New Castle County executive, would love to be Governor, but would have to beat John Carney in a statewide primary to get the the opportunity. Not gonna happen. That leaves…
4) John Carney – Congressman, ex-lieutenant governor, recent blow-out winner for re-election. Carney will take all the wrong messages from his recent win and believe that he is well loved throughout the state. He isn’t. He is a milquetoast career politician who believes in one thing, being elected. Oh sure, he’ll raise money by the truckload, but so what? In a small state like Delaware, a disciplined and well run ground game (like the one Simpler ran against Barney) can level the playing field. Especially against a wishy-washy candidate who can’t stomach taking a clear stand on anything.
The Republicans….
1) Lacey Lafferty – The only person currently announced. This retired state trooper walked in the Middleton Christmas parade this weekend dressed up as The Child Catcher from the film ‘Chitty Chitty Bang Bang’ and children along the parade route were duly frighten. Lafferty is the best possible primary opponent for Simpler. She is so crazy and over the top that Simpler can keep his non-partisan light blue and yellow motif going and simply ignore her and run against Carney from the outset. Team Simpler will have to thread the needle and not appear to be handed the nomination, but given Copeland’s recent success, I think he has bought some goodwill among the lunatics that comprise the GOP base. That leaves….
2) Ken Simpler – Ivy League legacy and treasurer-elect. Simpler is the only Republican to have run and won statewide. While he claims to be interested in being Treasurer, who is really interested in being Treasurer? Nobody, except as a means to possibly run for Governor sometime. If this is Simpler’s time, it is his time. He’ll be praying that the Dems continue to have no coherent message and the National GOP nominates someone at least competitive because a bit of a surge will help. But even without help at the top of the ticket, team Simpler has demonstrated an ability to expose the weaknesses of (allegedly) strong Democratic candidates. In the general election as in the GOP primary, he’ll have to thread the needle and keep the lunatics on board while appearing to glide above the toxic fumes emitted by the Republican party faithful. He will most likely do that by meeting in person with key teabag players in steam-rooms or saunas where he can tell them whatever lunatic bullshit they want to hear. Again, I think even the most lunatic GOPer is hungry enough for the Governorship to put the civil war on hold for a while.
So it’s Simpler in a photo-finish. If it is a big year for Republicans it is Simpler 52, Carney 47.