Monday Open Thread [2.9.15]

Wall Street Journal:

“Republicans, in full control of Congress for the first time since 2006, roundly panned President Obama ’s $4 trillion budget proposal last week for going heavy on tax increases and light on efforts to trim the deficit. But while Republicans’ top budget-writers have committed to eliminating the annual federal budget deficit over 10 years, doing so is expected to require deep cuts in entitlement programs, particularly if tax increases are off the table.”

Indeed, especially if the only known GOP solution to all problems, tax cuts for the wealthy, are employed, as they most assuredly will be.

“That means the GOP will face a challenge negotiating a budget conservative enough to pass the House without proposing politically unpopular cuts that could cause heartburn for Senate Republicans, whose states often represent a broader political spectrum. Democrats in either chamber are unlikely to provide many, if any, votes for a budget used to map out GOP goals.”

They will fail miserably.

First Read:

“There are two 2016 GOP races going on right now: One, the establishment contest, where Jeb and Christie are wooing deep-pocketed donors, especially now that Romney is out of the race. And two, the conservative grassroots contest, where the candidates will be jockeying to prove themselves as the most in tune with today’s Republican Party.”

“The establishment-vs.-conservative divide is what makes Walker worth watching over the next year, because he has the ability to straddle both worlds. Given that Walker has battled with Wisconsin Democrats — and won — few conservatives are going to question his conservative bona fides. And given that he’s won his state of Wisconsin three times in the past four years (2010 election, 2012 recall, 2014 re-election), he could appeal to some establishment Republicans who are looking for a non-Bush winner.”

Paul Mirengoff looks at the 2016 GOP landscape without Mittens:

[T]he main effect of Romney’s non-entry may be to move the race more quickly to where it probably would have been after the early going — a field dominated by an “establishment” candidate (now probably Bush), a Tea Party favorite or two (probably Cruz and/or Paul), a “bridge candidate or two (say Walker and/or Rubio), and maybe Mike Huckabee if he retains his popularity among evangelicals.

Nate Cohn argues along the same lines:

There is one crucial respect in which the race has not changed. The main challenge to Mr. Bush will be from his right, from a candidate with appeal to the party’s conservative grass roots yet with enough appeal to the establishment to secure the resources necessary to win the nomination.

Scott Walker or Rand Paul.

Matt Yglesias looks at what isn’t in Obama’s budget:

There’s no entitlement reform. There’s no Obama negotiating with himself. There’s no bending over backwards to look reasonable to his adversaries or to centrist pundits. Every previous Obama budget has been about positioning himself for a legislative or electoral showdown. This one isn’t.

And while It would be an overstatement to call it a liberal dream budget — left-wing Democrats could dream up plenty more — for the first time it’s really Obama’s dream budget. This is the end of the “grand bargain” era, and instead an opportunity for Obama to lay out his priorities for the long term — from transportation infrastructure to transforming child care. Rather than position himself in advance of a potential compromise, he wants to outline his vision for a future that will extend well beyond the life of his administration.

Quinnipiac: Jeb Bush “is emerging as the Republican front-runner in an early look at possible presidential primaries in the critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but […] Bush’s only clear dominance is in his native Florida.”

FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Quinnipiac: Bush 32, Rubio 15, Huckabee 11, Walker 9, Carson 8, Cruz 4, Christie 3, Jindal 3, Paul 3, Santorum 3, Perry 1
FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–Quinnipiac: Clinton 61, Biden 11, Warren 9, Sanders 2, O’Malley 1, Webb 1
FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–NO CLINTON–Quinnipiac: Biden 39, Warren 22, Sanders 3, Webb 2, O’Malley 2.
OHIO–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Quinnipiac: Kasich 14, Walker 11, Bush 10, Paul 10, Carson 8, Huckabee 7, Christie 6, Cruz 6, Rubio 4, Perry 1, Jindal 1, Santorum 1
OHIO–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–Quinnipiac: Clinton 51, Warren 14, Biden 7, Sanders 5, O’Malley 1, Webb 0
OHIO–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–NO CLINTON–Quinnipiac: Biden 28, Warren 24, Sanders 7, O’Malley 2, Webb 2
PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Quinnipiac: Bush 12, Christie 11, Huckabee 10, Carson 8, Santorum 8, Walker 6, Cruz 6, Rubio 4, Paul 3, Kasich 3, Jindal 2, Perry 1
PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–Quinnipiac: Clinton 54, Warren 12, Biden 10, O’Malley 2, Sanders 2, Webb 1
PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–NO CLINTON–Quinnipiac: Biden 34, Warren 21, O’Malley 5, Webb 4, Sanders 3

A new NH1 poll in New Hampshire shows Gov. Scott Walker (R) leading the Republican presidential race with 21% support, followed by Jeb Bush at 14%, Sen. Rand Paul at 8%, Ben Carson at 8%, Gov. Chris Christie at 6%, Mike Huckabee at 6%, and Sen. Marco Rubio at 5%.