Press play and have this music play throughout, to enhance your reading pleasure, and to give the appropriate musical backdrop….
Before we begin talking about who our great First State will send to Congress to get nothing at all done, I must note that our readers yesterday mentioned a name that I had completely forgotten as a possible Democratic nominee for Governor: Senator Karen Peterson. So…
She would make a more likely successful progressive candidate than John Kowalko, but I think she has less reason to jump into the race than he does. Still, having a Peterson v. Gordon v. Carney race would be wonderful, and I can see Peterson winning that.
I have also been asked about my criteria in deciding who is going to run for which office. I admit it is highly subjective. First, I take the rumor and the knowledgeable speculation that we politicos hear and discuss while drinking a beer or taking on the street. For example, Tom Gordon and John Carney have not said anything publicly that I am aware of that would indicate they are running or thinking of running for Governor. But the conventional wisdom and rumor says they both are if Beau Biden does not. And like I said yesterday, Beau Biden is not, so there we are.
Second, then we have candidates out there who have publicly said that they are thinking about or intend to run for higher office in 2016. For example, New Castle County Council President Chris Bullock, former Markell and Carper staffer, and 2014 Treasurer nominee Sean Barney, 2014 Auditor nominee Brenda Mayrack, Senator Bryan Townsend, and Representative Bryon Short have all made public statements saying they want to run or are thinking about running. When you say something publicly, it usually means you have been thinking and talking about it privately for quite a while, indeed, usually a great amount of planning has already been undertaken. So here is what they have said to Celia Cohen, about the prospect of running for Congress or another office in 2016:
Chris Bullock […] notes sagely that his commitment to the Obama-Biden legacy could suit him for running for either lieutenant governor or federal office, although this is easier said than done. The fund-raising rules are different for state and federal office, and time is already passing.
“I’m hoping it’s something the next governor would embrace, whatever position I’m in,” Bullock said, not without adding that his political credentials come with also being an African-American pastor, “and it’s time we have a woman or minority in Washington to represent Delaware.”
Then there are Brenda Mayrack, the Democrat who ran for auditor, and Sean Barney, the Democrat who ran for treasurer. They sounded like they were reading from the same script.
“My good friend John Carney is our congressman now. I would not be challenging him, obviously,” Mayrack said, although also mentioning, “I built a statewide organization. I am personally committed to doing what I can to make our state a better place.”
Barney put it this way, saying, “I support Congressman Carney. I hope he’s running for re-election. Not that I will matter much, but I will do what I can to support him. I’d like to still be making a difference and making a contribution in some way. It depends on what’s out there.” […]
Townsend[:] “People have suggested that I take a look at that. I hope Beau is in a position to run. If he was not to be, and the congressional seat were to open up, then I would consider that possibility.”
[S]hort[:] “Things are fluid and not fluid at the same time. If there’s a spot that’s a good fit for me to expand the service I do for Delaware, I would be interested.”
So there are five potential candidates that are interested in running for higher office in 2016. They are not all going to run for the same office. Hence, the Game of Musical….er ah.. Thrones. But I will include them all below when we talk about our At Large Congressional Seat.
Finally, another criteria I look at, and this is where it gets very subjective, is who do I think has the skill, the style, the ambition, and, for a lack of a better word, the “chops” to run, and then I couple that with who do I want to run. Take the example of Karen Peterson above. I want her to run. I think she has the skill to do it, and she has enough “gravitas” to it. The only question is her ambition. But right now, I am making that leap of faith for her.
Now onto to the main event…
From the top to the bottom, left to right: New Castle County President Chris Bullock (D), Sean Barney (D), Brenda Mayrack (D), Sen. Bryan Townsend (D), former head of the Delaware ACLU and Markell staffer Drew Fennell (D), State GOP Chairman and former Senator Charlie Copeland (R), perennial candidate and 2014 GOP nominee Rose Izzo (R), former state 7th District Senate nominee and business owner Fred Cullis (R), former state 4th District Representative nominee Rob Keesler, and finally, former Kent County GOP Chairman Hans Reigle.
That’s a lot of potential candidates, and there is a good reason for it. If John Carney were to vacate this congressional seat for a run for Governor, this would be the first truly open race for Delaware’s At Large Seat in 40 years, since 1976. Think about it. When Representative Pete du Pont retired from Congress in 1976 to run for Governor and was succeeded by Tom Evans, there has always an incumbent or a far and away favored frontrunner. Evans held the job until he was defeated by Treasurer Tom Carper in 1982. Carper held the job until he and Governor Mike Castle traded jobs in 1992. Castle held the job until he retired to run for Senate in 2010, but that year, everyone expected John Carney to run and win.
I did not mention Rep. Bryon Short above, because I view him as more suited for another office that we will discuss next week. With respect to Sean Barney and Brenda Mayrack, while yes, each has a dormant campaign operation and mailing and donor lists left over from the last campaign, and both possess the desire to run again, I just do not see it for Congress. I see Brenda being more successful in running for Treasurer or Auditor again in 2018. I see Sean Barney being more successful running for Lt. Governor, and we will discuss that next week. But my honest advice for Sean would be to run for the State Senate in 2016. Senator David Lawson is up for reelection in 2016 in the 15th Senate District, which is where Sean lives.
El Som brought up Drew Fennell as a possibility in the comments yesterday, and I included it here as an intriguing possibility. She could raise money, and she has the skill. I just question the ambition. Does she want to? I am not sure, and crossing that bridge from politico and staffer to candidate is a difficult one to cross. Ask Sean Barney. Ask me. I love politics, but I know I will never be a candidate because I am no salesman. To be a candidate, part of you has to be a salesman, and you are selling yourself.
The two most likeliest candidates for U.S. Representative, on the Democratic side, are Bullock and Townsend. Will there be a primary? It sounds to me like Bullock is definitely running, and I think he definitely more suited for federal office since he could do more for the Obama-Biden legacy as a Congressman than a Lt. Governor.
I have been high on Bryan Townsend’s future as a statewide politician for three years now, since he first defeated Tony Deluca in an upset. But I was always picturing state statewide, not federal statewide. It seems that his interests are more with state issues right now, like education, so I think a Congressional campaign might detract from that. Sen. Townsend is not up for reelection to his 11th District this year, so he can run for something and not lose his position in the General Assembly. But I think that something will be more state-oriented.
On the Republican side, a truly open race should bring out the credible candidates rather than the also ran perennials and the crazies. I see Charlie Copeland being that credible candidate. Rose Izzo will run, because she always runs. By the way, has anyone checked out her Twitter feed recently? It’s quite strange, as she has been heaping kind words and praise on Democrats of all kinds. Not a smart strategy for a Tea Party candidate.
Fred Cullis ran for State Senate against Patti Blevins in 2010. He has been mentioned as a potential candidate for Congress this time. He might as well, if Copeland doesn’t get in. Former Kent County GOP Chair Hans Reigle has also been mentioned as a potential candidate, but I’d imagine he’d been only viable if it were a free for one without Copeland. Finally, Rob Keesler, a young libertarian-ish Republican who ran against Gerald Brady in the 4th RD in 2014, is a possible candidate as well. I’d imagine the GOP’s best shot is with Copeland, but Keesler, if he gets in the race, could surprise.