Smart Politics: “Several states where the Democrats hope to pick up U.S. Senate seats in 2016 rarely split their vote in presidential elections – good news for the party if it believes it can carry the state at the top of the ticket. North Carolina has done so only once over the last century in 16 cycles (6.3 percent), with Wisconsin splitting in two of 17 cycles (11.8 percent), and Illinois in three of 18 (16.7 percent). Florida (21.1 percent), Ohio (23.5 percent), and Iowa (25.0 percent) have also done so in a quarter of election cycles or less.”
“However, there are two 2016 battleground states that have been more prone to splitting their vote for these two offices: New Hampshire has split its ticket in seven out of 16 cycles over the last century (43.8 percent) while Pennsylvania has done so in seven of 17 cycles (41.2 percent).”
New York Times: “Now, six months after he sent the military back into combat to take on the terror group calling itself the Islamic State, Mr. Obama has acquiesced and sent a measure to Congress asking it to formally authorize what he has been doing all along. And now that they have gotten what they asked for, few in Congress seem all that enthusiastic about the prospect.”
“One side thinks the president’s request for war-making powers is too brazen and even reckless. The other side thinks it is too spineless and probably ineffectual.”
A new NBC News/Marist poll finds 54% to 32% support for Obama’s measure.
First Read: “In our experience, there’s a simple rule to follow to make sense of any shutdown showdown: The side that’s divided usually loses. And Republicans are the ones who are divided in the battle over funding the Department of Homeland Security — over whether or not to include riders overturning Obama’s executive actions on immigration. Playing politics with security is always problematic. But it’s doubly problematic when your party is divided.”
A new CNN/ORC poll finds Republicans in Congress would shoulder the blame for a shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security more than President Obama if they are unable to enact a new spending bill to keep the agency running, 53% to 30%.
In his article, “How Democratic Progressives Survived a Landslide: They ran against Wall Street and carried the white working class. The Democrats who shunned populism got clobbered,” Bob Moser echos Jason330 that “mushy moderation has failed to convert many Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, even as it gives Democratic-leaners nothing special to get excited about.”
In short, either embrace your inner progressive, fight for Democratic ideals, or retire.
The
Washington Post on Ted Cruz’s path to the GOP Nomination: “[T]he tea party lane, which is both relatively large and entirely Cruz’s… What that means — particularly in the early stages of the primary process in places such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — is that he will probably be able to win, place or show repeatedly, racking up enough strong-ish performances to keep going even as the establishment and social-conservative lanes thin out. (Cruz’s ability to raise money, which remains a question, is less important for him than it is for other candidates — especially those in the establishment lane. His people are going to be for him no matter how much — or little — communicating he does with them.)”
“The trick for Cruz, the consultant said, is to hang around long enough to be the preeminent figure not only in the tea party lane but also in the social-conservative lane. (Cruz is decidedly conservative on social issues and talks regularly on the campaign trail about his faith. ) The complicating figure in that consolidation effort is Huckabee, who is (a) likely to run, (b) an ordained Southern Baptist minister and (c) likely to be able to stay in the race for an extended period because of the number of early Southern primaries.”
A new CNN/ORC poll finds a large majority of Americans believe that Republican congressional leaders should not have invited Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to speak to Congress without consulting the White House, 63% to 33%.
A new poll released by the Human Rights Campaign has found that 60 percent of Americans support “allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally,” while only 37 percent oppose it.