Paul Waldman suggests an unusual way in which Barack Obama can and will help Hillary Clinton win the 2016 general election.
Paid sick leave is one of those policies (like increasing the minimum wage) that Republicans oppose but that are absurdly popular. For instance, in this HuffPo/YouGov poll from 2013, 84 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of Republicans, and 68 percent of Independents supported requiring companies to offer it. Yet while it’s possible that a Republican or two in the presidential race might surprise us and support it, that’s not too likely. They just aren’t inclined to support any regulation that requires employers to offer a benefit to employees, even if we’re the only country in the developed world that doesn’t have mandatory paid sick leave. And now that it’s something Barack Obama is pushing, the odds that a Republican could say he agrees with it are quickly plummeting toward zero.
It’s that last sentence that’s worth thinking about: Republicans may be able to bring themselves to try to “neutralize” relatively anodyne and very popular ideas like paid family leave, even if they offer half or a fourth of a loaf. But not if they are associated with Barack Obama. So Obama may offer the signal service to other Democrats of making wildly popular ideas so toxic to Republicans that Democrats can monopolize them.
IOWA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN CAUCUS–InsiderAdvantage: Walker 29, Carson 14, Bush 12, Huckabee 11, Cruz 7, Rubio 5, Paul 5, Christie 5.
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Suffolk University: Bush 19, Walker 14, Paul 7, Trump 6, Cruz 5, Christie 5.
You know that incident a few years ago where asshole thug Governor Chris Christie yelled at a citizen, telling him to “sit down and shut up?” That citizen’s name is James Keady. And because of it, he is running for office. Good for him.
Talk to enough Republican insiders about the presidential primary field, and you’ll get a common sentiment when it comes to Jeb Bush. Most strategists agree that Bush has to overcome serious hurdles to win the nomination, but they say he’s a formidable candidate thanks to his deep political network and ability to dominate the competition in fundraising. “I can’t see him dropping out before Florida,” said one former GOP congressman well-connected to the field.
But there are signs that a worst-case, crash-and-burn scenario for Bush is more realistic than even his skeptics recognize. He’s underperforming in early public polls and is receiving a frosty reception from Republican focus groups. His entitled biography is at odds with the Republican Party’s increasing energy from working-class voters, who relate best with candidates who have struggled to make ends meet. The Bush name is a reminder of the past at a time when GOP voters are desperate for new faces. And after losing two straight presidential elections, Republican voters are thinking much more strategically—and aren’t nearly as convinced as the political press that Bush is the strongest contender against Hillary Clinton.
If they are thinking strategically, they would be more inclined to support Bush. But I feel that they thinking ideologically and are not willing to swallow an Establishment candidate that can win.
Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) told The Hill that he might run for president. God doesn’t love me that much.