Tuesday Open Thread [4.21.15]

NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–PPP:

Clinton 49, Paul 40
Clinton 49, Walker 40
Clinton 51, Christie 36
Clinton 52, Cruz 37
Clinton 50, Rubio 38
Clinton 49, Bush 36
Clinton 51, Carson 38
Clinton 51, Huckabee 38
Clinton 51, Perry 38.

“We have a woman running who got fired from a company; now she’s running for president. She got fired from a company in a vicious manner. They eventually walked her out. And she also lost an election, not by a little bit, by a landslide. I won’t use names. Now I turn on the television, and she’s running for president. I don’t know.” — Donald Trump, quoted by the Washington Post, talking about Carly Florina.

Donald, … can I call you Donald? Donald, she is running to give your supposed Republican Party some cover when they make vicious sexist attacks on Hillary. And it will be Carly that makes those attacks. And those attacks cannot be sexist since they made by a woman. See how that works? So stop upsetting the applecart your party has laid out for you.

IOWA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Gravis Marketing: Bush 16, Walker 13, Rubio 12, Paul 9, Carson 9, Huckabee 8, Cruz 6.

Interesting. If Bush does win Iowa, the primaries will play out just like 2012, where Romney was always the frontrunner, while Gingrich and Santorum won little states here and there. If Bush wins Iowa, he is the nominee.

New York Times: “For anyone who wondered what kind of economic message Mrs. Clinton would deliver in her campaign, the first few days made it clear: She is embracing the ideas trumpeted by Ms. Warren and the populist movement — that the wealthy have been benefiting disproportionately from the economy, while the middle class and the poor have been left behind. And the policies Mrs. Clinton is advancing, like paid sick leave for employees and an increase in the minimum wage, align with that emphasis.”

“But now, the former secretary of state must convince voters that she is the right messenger for the cause of inequality, not simply seizing on it out of political expedience.”

Dana Milbank takes apart the latest anti-equality argument:

As the Supreme Court prepares to take up same-sex marriage next week, conservative scholars have produced a last-ditch argument to keep the scourge of homosexual unions from spreading across the land: Gay marriage kills.

They’re saying that legalizing same-sex marriage will cause 900,000 abortions. The logic is about as obvious as if they had alleged that raising the minimum wage would increase the frequency of hurricanes. If anything, you’d think that more same-sex marriages would mean more adoptions.

I don’t even understand the possible connection, let alone logic, in such an argument. Perhaps these evil conservatives are threatening the court in some fashion by saying if they approve marriage equality, the conservative right will start having abortions. Yes, it is insane, but so are most conservatives when it comes to their bigotry towards gays.

Ron Brownstein: “As president, Bill Clinton signed the Defense of Marriage Act, which authorized states to deny recognition to same-sex marriages performed in other states. As a presidential candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton launched her 2016 campaign on Sunday with a video that featured two gay men excitedly planning their own same-sex wedding.”

“That contrast captures a profound shift since Bill Clinton’s presidency—not only in American social attitudes, but also in the nature of his party’s electoral coalition. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic presidential nomination, she will inherit from President Obama a very different coalition than the one that elected her husband. Her great opportunity is to meld the different support that each man mobilized. Her great risk is that she won’t be able to re-create quite as much of either man’s coalition as she needs to win.”