Friday Open Thread [5.8.15]

Dylan Byers: “On Nov. 8, 2016, Clinton will start — start — with a minimum 247 of the 270 electoral votes she needs to win. If you give her Colorado and Virginia — which many political strategists would, given the Hispanic population in one and the rising influence of the northern-centered population in the other — she’ll start with 269. That means Clinton doesn’t need Ohio or Florida. She just needs one small state like Iowa, Nevada or New Hampshire to put her over the edge. And because she’s got a boatload of money and no viable primary challenger, she’ll have plenty of time and resources to lock up at least one of those states.”

“In order to shift the map, the Republican nominee would have to find a way to win Colorado and/or Virginia. That means winning over Hispanics, which will be a difficult task for a nominee who has spent a months-long primary trying to win over the conservative grass roots. It also means winning over enough members of Virginia’s white working class to counter the more populated liberal-urban centers in the north. Not impossible, of course, but hard.”

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–NBC News-Wall Street Journal Poll: Clinton (D) 49, Bush (R) 43; Clinton (D) 49, Rubio (R) 43; Clinton (D) 50; Walker (R) 40; Clinton (D) 47; Paul (R) 43

The Latino Vote: In new NBC/WSJ poll, Hillary leads both Jeb (66%-28%) and Rubio (63%-32%) among Latino voters

IOWA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN CAUCUS–Quinnipiac: Walker 21, Paul 13, Rubio 13, Cruz 12, Huckabee 11, Carson 7, Bush 5.

This is a devastating poll for Jeb Bush. He may have drop out of the race altogether if his numbers don’t improve.

IOWA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS–Quinnipiac: Clinton 60, Sanders 15, Biden 11, Webb 3, O’Malley 3

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona finds Sen. John McCain’s troubles with conservatives “have him in a whole lot of trouble for reelection next year.”

“Even among Republican primary voters just 41% approve of the job he’s doing to 50% who disapprove. Only 37% of primary voters say they generally support him for renomination, compared to 51% who say they would prefer someone ‘more conservative.’”

Jonathan Chait: “Yesterday, Hillary Clinton surprised immigration advocates, and nearly everybody else, by taking an unexpectedly liberal stance on executive action and comprehensive reform. There’s no reason to doubt that Clinton, like most Democrats, genuinely believes in the humanitarian and economic merits of these policies. But it is also a power play that demonstrates how swiftly the immigration issue has moved in her party’s favor, and how she plans to box in her opponents.”

The New York Times/CBS News poll:

Americans now view Mrs. Clinton more favorably and more see her as a strong leader than they did earlier in the year, despite weeks of scrutiny about her ethics, a New York Times/CBS News poll has found. And nearly nine in 10 Democrats say the nation is ready to elect a woman president.

Republican voters showed the most openness to considering Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and former Govs. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Jeb Bush of Florida among their party’s presidential contenders, the survey found.

Some more points from this poll: 1) The percent of voters with a favorable view of Clinton has gone from 26 in March to 35 now, and the percent with an unfavorable view has ticked down a point from 37 to 36. By contrast, Jeb Bush is at nine percent favorable and 28 percent unfavorable, with most voters saying they either don’t know enough or are undecided and 2) The number of Americans who think Mrs. Clinton has strong qualities of leadership has risen by eight percentage points, to 65 percent from 57 percent.

NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–WMUR: Bush 15, Rubio 12, Walker, 11, Paul 10

New Hampshire is a must win for Bush.