Monday Open Thread [6.1.15]

Rick Klein: “The scrum to become the anti-Hillary candidate is now joined, with flaws and foibles evident in both men who seem best positioned to give the Democratic frontrunner a run for her money. While this is Martin O’Malley’s announcement moment, it’s an early Bernie Sanders momentum moment, with polls and press coverage casting the Vermont senator as on the move. It’s important to remember that Sanders has more of a built-in base, particularly without Elizabeth Warren running. He’s the candidate for the far left, and the even farther left beyond.”

“O’Malley’s advantages would be more likely to stand out in a more traditional competitive primary. He has governing experience, a generational argument to make, and generally looks the part more than Sanders. The race’s dynamics could wind up driving its competitive nature. If Hillary Clinton cruises wire-to-wire, Sanders could easily be the default runner-up. But the moment Clinton looks vulnerable enough to actually be beaten, it might be time for O’Mentum.”

Bill Scher thinks the GOP nominee will be Bush: “That Hillary will coast I doubt surprises you. Sure, has her B-list challengers stoking the populist embers in the Democratic base. Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley are in. Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb may soon follow suit. Each may put up a good fight, raise some decent money and earn a moment in the sun. Collectively, they will force Hillary to finesse sticky issues that pit the Democratic Party’s working class against its donor class. But they won’t fundamentally alter the trajectory of the race.”

“The Republican Party is just too splintered and too fractionalized. And any conservative consolidation project is severely hampered by the bottomless pit of Republican candidates. Each of these hopefuls may be more implausible than the next. But the more candidates that can claim their own chunk of the conservative base—Santorum’s blue-collar social conservatives, Graham’s hard-core hawks, Trump’s angry rich guys who dole out ‘wife bonuses’—the harder it is for conservatives to pool their resources.”

“And if there’s one thing Jeb Bush will have that the rest of the field won’t, it is resources. His latest round of ‘I haven’t made a final decision’ coyness is just so can he legally milk every last dollar from the Bush family’s vast donor network for his Right to Rise Super PAC before he becomes an official candidate and canvasses his rich friends all over again for direct donations.”

I just don’t see it. The only way it’s Bush is if it is a brokered convention, and then, I guarantee there is a third party tea party candidacy.