Tuesday Open Thread [6.2.15]

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–CNN/ORC: Rubio 14, Bush 13, Huckabee 10, Walker 10, Cruz 8, Paul 8, Carson 7, Perry 5, Christie 4, Pataki 3, Trump 3, Santorum 2, Fiorina 1, Graham 1, Jindal 1

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–CNN/ORC: Clinton 60, Biden 14, Sanders 10, Webb 2, O’Malley 1

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–CNN/ORC:

Clinton 51, Bush 43
Clinton 49, Rubio 46
Clinton 48, Paul 47
Clinton 49, Walker 46
Clinton 52, Cruz 43

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Quinnipiac: Bush 10, Huckabee 10, Rubio 10, Walker 10, Carson 10, Paul 7, Cruz 6, Trump 5, Christie 4, Fiorina 2, Kasich 2, Jindal 1, Graham 1, Pataki 0, Santorum 0

Said pollster Tim Malloy: “Safe to say, the 2016 Republican presidential primary is anyone’s race. With no frontrunner and identical numbers for the top five contenders, it’s a horserace which can only be described as a scrambled field – at least so far.”

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–Quinnipiac: Clinton 57, Sanders 15, Biden 9, O’Malley 1, Chafee 1, Webb 1

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–Quinnipiac:

Clinton 46, Paul 42
Clinton 45, Rubio 41
Clinton 46, Christie 37
Clinton 47, Huckabee 40
Clinton 47, Bush 37
Clinton 46, Walker 38
Clinton 48, Cruz 37
Clinton 50, Trump 32

IOWA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Poll: Walker 17, Carson 10, Paul 10, Bush 9, Huckabee 9, Santorum 6, Rubio 6, Cruz 5, Christie 4, Trump 4, Perry 3, Fiorina 2, Kasich 2, Jindal 1, Graham 1, Pataki 0

IOWA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Poll: Clinton 57, Sanders 16, Biden 8, O’Malley 2, Webb 2

NEW HAMPSHIRE–US SENATOR–University of New Hampshire: Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) 45, Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 43.

PENNSYLVANIA–SENATOR–a href=”http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/toomey-leads-sestak-by-4-in-rematch.html”>Public Policy Polling: Sen. Pat Toomey (R) 42, Joe Sestak (D) 38

First Read on the repeal of Nebraska’s death penalty: “Maybe the most significant political story in the country over the past 24 hours didn’t take place in Washington, DC, or on the 2016 campaign trail. Instead, it’s what happened yesterday in Nebraska, which repealed the death penalty in the state after Republican and Democratic lawmakers overrode — barely — the GOP governor’s veto.”

“This is a big deal for three reasons. One, Nebraska becomes the first red state in the country to repeal the death penalty in 40 years (after North Dakota did it in 1973). Two, it comes after at least one national poll (Pew) had found a drop in support of the death penalty. (If you don’t think that public opinion on a social issue can change in a hurry, just look at gay marriage.) And three, it comes in the midst of a bipartisan effort — even among Dem and GOP 2016ers — to overhaul the nation’s criminal-justice system.”

The Fix on the demographic challenges facing the Whites Only Party: “If the 2016 GOP nominee gets no better than Romney’s 17 percent of the nonwhite vote, he or she would need 65 percent of the white vote to win, a level achieved in modern times only by Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide. Bush’s 2004 winning formula — 26 percent of the nonwhite vote and 58 percent of the white vote — would be a losing formula in 2016, given population changes.”

“The 2016 electorate, demographically speaking, will be worse for Republicans than 2012. And unless Republicans can begin winning more of the nonwhite vote, the 2020 election will be worse for the party than the 2016 election. And 2024 will be worse than, well, you get the idea.”

Orin Kerr: “If I understand the history correctly, in the late 1990s, the President was impeached for lying about a sexual affair by a House of Representatives led by a man who was also then hiding a sexual affair, who was supposed to be replaced by another Congressman who stepped down when forced to reveal that he too was having a sexual affair, which led to the election of a new Speaker of the House who now has been indicted for lying about payments covering up his sexual contact with a boy.”