Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “If you’re looking for a dark-horse entrant into the first tier, it might be John Kasich. Few would bet on him today, but no sensible party will easily dismiss a popular two-term governor of swing-state Ohio. And Kasich’s federal, state and private sector experiences comprise impressive preparation for the presidency.”
“The primary obstacle for Kasich are his positions on Obamacare and Common Core, which have earned him the RINO label. He also has to generate interest in a hurry so he can get into the upcoming debates, for which he currently does not qualify. And Kasich must make a convincing case that he’s not just another Jon Huntsman, who won more plaudits from the media than votes from Republicans in 2012.”
“Republicans in Congress are worried the Supreme Court will hand them a major headache this month if it rules against the federal health insurance exchanges in more than 30 states, ending subsidies for millions of people,” The Hill reports.
And we are going to make them own it. It’s their lawsuit. They have wanted to kill Obamacare from the beginning. They are responsible. They will get the blame.
“I’ve got a lot of friends. We’ll have a rotating first lady.” — Sen. Lindsey Graham, quoted by the Daily Mail, on how the unmarried presidential candidate will handle the job of First Lady. This raises an interesting question: can a bachelor President get elected? They have before (Grover Cleveland, Woodrow Wilson, James Buchanan), but that was before the dawn of TV, and before the influential First Ladies such as Jackie Kennedy, Eleanor Roosevelt, Betty Ford, Nancy Reagan and Hillary Clinton.
Wall Street Journal: “First, the math is simply too tough for Democrats. They now hold just 188 House seats, which means they would need to win 30 seats now held by Republicans. Even in a good year, that’s too steep a hill to climb. So while Republicans do have more seats in danger in the changed environment of 2016, the numbers aren’t big enough to suggest a change. The Cook Report lists 22 Republican-held seats that are among the most vulnerable this cycle, and just seven Democratic ones, but even a clean sweep of such seats by the Democrats wouldn’t be enough to change control.”
“Second, that difficult math is the result of years of Republican efforts to draw up congressional districts that are safe for GOP candidates. Using their control of more governor’s offices and state legislatures in recent years, Republicans have been in the driver’s seat for reapportioning congressional districts and the advantage shows. The vast majority of Republican House members are safe from serious challenge from Democrats; only 16 of them won their seats by fewer than 10 percentage points, the Cook Report says.”
“And third, Democrats enter 2016 behind a president whose popularity is only in the mediocre range. In the latest rolling Gallup survey, Mr. Obama’s job approval stood at 46%–which is better than the 42.6% he averaged last year but not enough to sweep other Democrats forward.”
Washington Post: “The incredibly swift public opinion battle on same-sex marriage appears to be over — even moreso than you might think. A new Pew Research Center survey released this week reinforced what we already know: That a clear and growing majority of Americans support same-sex marriage.”
“But here’s something perhaps even more telling: Even those who don’t support same-sex marriage (mainly, religious conservatives) also think it’s inevitable same-sex marriage will soon be legal across America.”
OHIO–SENATOR–Public Policy Polling: Sen. Rob Portman (R) 43, Fmr. Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 41.
PENNSYLVANIA–SENATOR–Robert Morris University: Joe Sestak (D) 34, Sen. Pat Toomey (R) 28.
I am very suspicious of two candidate polls that shows percentages for both in the low 30’s. It tells me that the pollster did not ask which way they were leaning. Still, 28% is bad for incumbent.
Rick Klein on Marco Rubio’s financial problems: “It’s easy enough to mock a particular media portrayal of Marco Rubio, cast as – shock! – someone who has struggled with his finances yet owns a luxury boat that isn’t that fancy and an expensive home that looks, well, fine. (The previous New York Times take on Rubio’s past, on his driving record, didn’t help its subsequent story.)”
“But even as Rubio’s campaign raises money off of the pair of Times stories, seeds of serious questions about Rubio are being planted. There are relationships with people as varied as former Rep. David Rivera and billionaire Norman Braman; credit-card missteps involving personal charges on a state-party card; and even the still-strange and very recent decision to cash out some 401(k) funds, penalty and all. If the story develops into one of a financially strapped young family, trying to make ends meet, it will all be part of a stump speech soon enough. But if it becomes one about a man with a law degree and six-figure income who couldn’t keep his finances straight, it will become part of a debate-stage attack just as quickly.”