Washington Post: “In interviews this week, dozens of Bush backers and informed Republicans — most of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to comment candidly — described an overly optimistic, even haughty exploratory operation. Strategic errors were exacerbated by unexpected stumbles by the would-be candidate and internal strife within his team, culminating in a staff shake-up this week.”
“The original premise of Bush’s candidacy — that a bold, fast start would scare off potential rivals and help him overcome the burden of his last name — has proved to be misguided.”
A new analysis of Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll data finds a marked increase in the share of registered voters identifying themselves as liberals, and an even bigger drop in the share saying they are conservatives.
FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–St. Leo University: Clinton 60, Biden 11, Sanders 5
FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–St. Leo University: Bush 30, Rubio 24, Walker 7, Carson 7, Paul 7, Huckabee 6
“By several measures, support for Rubio has surged since he officially declared his presidential candidacy earlier this spring, while Bush’s support has plateaued. Presented with a long list of candidates, Bush remains the top choice of Florida Republicans. However, Rubio’s support rose by eight points since a March survey by Saint Leo University, while Bush’s support stayed flat. Rubio also saw an eight-point increase in the number of voters naming him as their second choice. Combining the first and second place votes, Rubio has overtaken Bush. Rubio combines for 53 percent first- and second-choice votes, whereas Bush receives 42 percent.”
Matt Bai: “Because if you’re a conservative challenger who hasn’t yet managed to elbow your way into the conversation, I’d argue that getting shut out of the first few debates might actually be the first good thing to happen to you… What exactly do you think you’re likely to accomplish with that five minutes? Here’s an exercise for you: Name the last primary candidate whose campaign was transformed by some brilliant debate moment. Right.”
“On the flip side, consider the potential advantage of not being allowed to debate. The most powerful case one can make in modern politics – and especially in a Republican primary – is that you’re taking on the establishment in Washington, whatever that actually means. And nothing screams ‘threat to the system’ like being silenced by the media and the party elite.
“President Obama has run an amazingly scandal-free administration, not only he himself, but the people around him. He’s chosen people who have been pretty scandal-free,” conservative New York Times opinion writer David Brooks said last week on PBS’ NewsHour.
OHIO–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–PPP: Clinton 61, Sanders 13, Bloomberg 7, Chafee 2, O’Malley 2, Webb 1
OHIO–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–PPP: Kasich 19, Walker 13, Carson 13, Bush 12, Rubio 12, Paul 9, Huckabee 6, Cruz 5, Christie 4
OHIO–PRESIDENT–PPP:
Kasich 47, Clinton 40
Paul 44, Clinton 41
Clinton 44, Rubio 44
Clinton 45, Bush 43
Clinton 44, Carson 43
Clinton 44, Christie 41
Clinton 44, Cruz 43
Clinton 45, Huckabee 42
Clinton 44, Walker 43