Tuesday Open Thread [7.21.15]
“Iran is like the health care debate for Republicans. They’re filled with rage but not with ideas.”
— David Axelrod, quoted by the Washington Post.
The New York Times says that GOP is going to pass anti-gay legislation:
“Legislation granting protections for tax-exempt organizations and individuals objecting to same-sex marriage on religious or moral grounds is gathering momentum in the House. The bills, drafted by Representative Raúl R. Labrador, Republican of Idaho, and Senator Mike Lee, Republican of Utah, already have 130 co-sponsors. On Thursday, the Republican Study Committee, the largest, most organized group of conservatives in the House, demanded a vote.”
“At the same time, wary Republican moderates have quietly drafted a novel alternative that would actually expand legal protections for gay men and lesbians. Their legislation would narrow the scope of protection offered to groups declining services to same-sex couples seeking to marry.”
It will be vetoed, and it will solidify into rock solid concrete the notion that the Republican Party is a party full of bigots and that all Republicans everywhere hate gays and lesbians. So please proceed, Republicans.
The New York Times again on how the economy will impact the 2016 election:
“They said they believed that unemployment would be the lowest it has been during an election since George W. Bush and Al Gore faced off in 2000, when it stood at 3.9 percent. The median forecast for the unemployment rate when voters go to the polls in November 2016 was 4.8 percent (which would be down from 5.3 percent last month). They saw only a 15 percent chance of a recession starting by next Election Day. Interest rates, inflation and gasoline prices should all be a bit higher than they are now, they said, while staying quite low by historical standards.”
“On its face, all of that points to an election with dynamics similar to 1988 or 2000, when the nominee of the incumbent party (George H. W. Bush in 1988 and Mr. Gore in 2000) could promise continued prosperity. That bodes well for the Democratic nominee, though as Mr. Gore’s loss despite winning the popular vote shows, even a favorable economy doesn’t assure victory, given the workings of the Electoral College.”
Al Gore also ran AWAY from the Clinton Presidency when he should have embraced it with both arms and legs, while at the same time, George W. Bush pretended that there was no difference between him and Gore (and given an assist by the evil Nader voters) with his “Compassionate Conservative” pitch. So that makes 2000 an outlier in my mind. In 2016, you are going to have Hillary Clinton embracing the Obama record, and the GOP candidate will do everything he can to run away from Obama and push an extremist and radical agenda. And that all benefits Hillary.
Pat Buchanan isn’t often correct. And he is a racist. But he is right about Iran:
But before the party commits to abrogating the Iran deal in 2017, the GOP should consider whether it would be committing suicide in 2016.
For even if Congress votes to deny Obama authority to lift U.S. sanctions on Iran, the U.S. will vote to lift sanctions in the U.N. Security Council. And Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, all parties to the deal, will also lift sanctions.
A Congressional vote to kill the Iran deal would thus leave the U.S. isolated, its government humiliated, unable to comply with the pledges its own secretary of state negotiated. Would Americans cheer the GOP for leaving the United States with egg all over its face?
And if Congress refuses to honor the agreement, but Iran complies with all its terms, who among our friends and allies would stand with an obdurate America then?
Israel would applaud, the Saudis perhaps, but who else?
And as foreign companies raced to Iran, and U.S. companies were told to stay out, what would GOP presidential candidates tell the business community?
Would the party campaign in 2016 on a pledge to get tough and impose new sanctions? “Coercive diplomacy,” The Wall Street Journal calls it.
If so, what more would they demand that Iran do? And what would they threaten Iran with, if she replied: We signed a deal. We will honor it. But we will make no new concessions under U.S. threat.
Would we bomb Iran? Would we go to war? Not only would Americans divide on any such action, the world would unite — against us.And would a Republican president really bomb an Iran that was scrupulously honoring the terms of the John Kerry deal? What would we bomb? All the known Iran nuclear facilities will be crawling with U.N. inspectors.
A new Monmouth University Poll in Iowa finds Scott Walker leading the GOP field with 22%, followed by Donald Trump at 13%, Ben Carson at 8%, Jeb Bush at 7%, Ted Cruz at 7%, Mike Huckabee at 6%, Marco Rubio at 5% and Rand Paul at 5%.
Well, we have our answer as to whether Donald Trump’s campaign is over and whether Republicans after he attacked prisoners of war and veterans. And the answer is no, the campaign is not over because Republicans enjoy attacks on the military. Trump has surged into a massive lead in the primary. A double digit lead. He is now far and away the frontrunner in this race. It’s goddamn beautiful.
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds Donald Trump surged into the lead for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, with almost twice the support of his closest rival.
Trump leads with 24%, followed by Scott Walker at 13% and Jeb Bush at 12.
“And the answer is no, the campaign is not over because Republicans enjoy attacks on the military.”
WOW, DD. That is a strong statement. Our military protects our freedom and as a Republican, I DO NOT ENJOY ANY ATTACK ON OUR MILITARY, EITHER VERBAL OR OTHERWISE. FOR YOU TO MAKE THAT BLANKET STATEMENT, YOUR WRONG!!!
The Monmouth and WaPo poll results, being right next to each other in the thread, and saying nearly the opposite makes me want to just say “F*** It… I’ll wait till 2016 to start paying attention to polls.” But then I realize my status as a “junkie” and regrasp the coffee mug, waiting for tomorrow’s crop of results…
Interesting how the Republican electorate is so enamored by some macho bellicose reality show entertainer while totally ignoring issues such as infrastructure, jobs, Social Security solvency and medicare
Anonymous: Out of curiousity, did you strenuously condemn the Republican Swift Boating of John Kerry in the 2004 campaign as you strenuously condemn the attack on Sen. McCain? I certainly hope so… For whatever his faults as a politician, John McCain served honorably in the military and should be celebrated for that… Just like John Kerry should be.
Sure would’ve been nice if, 11 years ago, the GOP Presidential Machine didn’t try to destroy the integrity of a war-hero candidate. I’d strenuously argue that what the Swift Boat a**clowns did to Kerry (w/ Bush-Cheney’s blessing) is infinitely worse than one blowhard media-fink-come-GOP-candidate insulting the military record of a sitting Senator. One was a coordinate, calculated attack and the other is just a jackhole running his mouth to the throng of cameras in his face.
Don’t forget Republican’s attack on Max Cleland and Tammy Duckworth. And what about the gay soldier Republicans booed during one of their 2012 presidential debates.
http://www.showmeprogress.com/diary/10359/on-science
The same Jeb Bush who expresses outrage over the Trump dissing of McCain egged on the Swift-boaters when Dubya ran for reelection:
http://crooksandliars.com/2015/07/jeb-bush-sent-swift-boat-vets-letter-2005
Pretty much defines a hypocrite.
Oh, so now he is lowering the flags to half mast. This guy…. Out of touch academic, elitist, what ever you want to call it. No wonder a guy like Donald Trump can gain a foothold. Folks are sick of these wishy washy, mealy- mouthed “smart guys”.
Right. Being smart is highly overrated. But I am sure the guy that flies around in his own private jet and never worked a day in his life will be totally in touch with the struggles of the every day American.
We tried stupid with the last pretzeldent and it didn’t turn out so well.
FBH: Every single candidate, with the “possible” (NOTE: POSSIBLE) exception of Bernie Sanders is an “out-of-touch academic, elitist.” I’m pretty sure they all went to private schools, top-notch colleges, either have a ton of old money or a glut of new money (here’s a link for those two respective definitions: Old- http://bit.ly/1IijSaH; New- http://bit.ly/1Lr38hQ) and have as much in common with the regular “folks” you allude to as Thor and Loki (Marvel reference) have to me and my brother.
Donald Trump resonates with you because he ramblings are full of fear, anger, and hate and harken back to a time when change wasn’t prevalent and when old white men controlled and ruled with an iron fist (which they still do to a large degree).
Well we all know education, the educated, science, critical thinking and a reasoned approach are all antithetical to conservative republicans. They only reason the bitter clinger love Trump, a reality show entertainer so much is that he’s a macho, bellicose mudslinger and that is the most important thing to today’s conservative republicans
Oh, so now he is lowering the flags to half mast. This guy…. Out of touch academic, elitist, what ever you want to call it. No wonder a guy like Donald Trump can gain a foothold. Folks are sick of these wishy washy, mealy- mouthed “smart guys”.
You forgot “NEEERRRRRDDDDSSSS” We already had a dumb jock for a president, thank you.
Here is a dose of reality. While he is up in the polls, among bettors at Predictit, Trump is 8th.
Jeb Bush 49¢
Scott Walker 34¢
Marco Rubio 22¢
John Kasich 20¢
Rand Paul 13¢
Chris Christie 12¢
Ted Cruz 12¢
Donald Trump 11¢
“And would a Republican president really bomb an Iran that was scrupulously honoring the terms of the John Kerry deal? What would we bomb? All the known Iran nuclear facilities will be crawling with U.N. inspectors.”
This quote from Pat Buchanan is timely. Scott Walker just said that he’d be prepared to bomb Iran on day 1 of his presidency.
“And would a Republican President really bomb an Iran that was scrupulously honoring the terms of the John Kerry deal?”
I think this is a moot point. The real question is what will the new President D or R do WHEN Iran cheats. I give Obama credit here, he’s playing the long game. He’s giving Iran enough rope to hang itself.
Donald Trump has brilliantly taken over the role vacated by Stephen Colbert. It took me a few weeks to see it. If you consume it as performance art like Colbert, Bill O’Reilly, et al. it’s really genius. Take any public Colbert bit did and then watch Trump’s routine in Hilton Head yesterday. Same thing… personal insults, absurd personal asides, vaguely racist/sexist quips, made-for-TV pranks (Lindsey Graham phone number). He’s exposing the absurdity in the same way Colbert did. The fact that it’s all done ostensibly as a Presidential campaign is irrelevant. Just the packaging. It’s actually pretty fantastic if you think about like this.
A long form performance art piece…? We could be looking at a “Being John Malkovich” situation here, and that actually makes more sense that any other explanation.
It is the perfect scenario for Trump. For years the Fox News/conservative radio crowd has used him as mouthpiece for anti-Obama shit. He’s a celebrity talking head.
So now he’s entrenched in that scene. He has the skill and money and the organization in place to do the reality TV production part of it already. And the biggest thing Trump is exploiting is the vast number of candidates in the GOP field. This is why I suspect he selected the presidential campaign conceit. As long as he can capture the attention of a small, loyal group of fans and get the right ratings in his key demographics Trump succeeds in doing what the “media” require to rationalize and defend the coverage – namely “good” poll numbers.
He’s exploiting the weakness in the culture and the media. As long as he hits his Nielsen share the media feel obligated to talk about it. That delivers oxygen directly to the fire source. He’s doing what he does for a living. And, like Colbert and O’Reilly, he never ever breaks character in public. It’s quite a savvy scheme…
I don’t see what he gets out of it. Other than, I suppose, and ego massage.
He can’t last until the convention because his share of the vote will remain the same as the field if winnowed down and he’ll fall to the back of the pack.
Dorian,
Yes he has money, carnival barker skills, and name recognition but does Trump have an organization? Does he have people working on the ground in Iowa, etc?
The Onion finds the truth:
http://www.theonion.com/blogpost/admit-it-you-people-want-see-how-far-goes-dont-you-50895
The Onion speaks the truth… I want it, more than anything. I hope and pray (to Superman, of course) that he decides to ride it out through to the convention… There isn’t shit on during the summer, so can you imagine the wall-to-wall coverage of Columbus (GOP convention location?)!
“I’m not normally a praying man, but if you’re up there, please keep Trump’s candidacy alive, Superman!”
Jason – I can only guess, but I’d say it’s the same old trope. No publicity is bad publicity. He’ll be a wealthy and sought after reality TV Exec Producer for the rest of his life… it’s probably much more lucrative than real estate.
Sussex Anon – You’re missing the point. What in the world does he need with people on the ground in Iowa? The question sounds like some analysis written in Politico or on MSNBC. He needs old fashion political apparatus like Kim Kardashian needs a library card. It’s not that type of game. Do you think he’s going to send out people to canvas or make cold calls to get out to the caucus? You’re missing the impetus behind what he’s doing and what I suspect the point of it is. Stop looking at it like he’s running for president. He isn’t. He simply needs a means to take the freak show on the road. It’s likely the same staff as “The Apprentice.”
The “campaign”, such as it is, is a rhetorical device to play this character for person celebrity gain. He needs to say wild things on the TV and have everyone discuss it for days. Provoke the actual candidates into insult exchanges. Say provocative things, etc… Meanwhile political reporters are looking for the Trump ’16 store front in Concord, New Hampshire. (Which for me is the best part of the joke. The idea that someone would wonder about what states he might focus on ahead of Super Tuesday… hahahahaha… how incredibly silly!)
So far it’s been an unquestionable success. Pat Paulsen without the wink and nod.
Paulsen 2016