Wednesday Open Thread [7.22.15]

The New York Times on Pope Francis’ visit making life uncomfortable for Republicans:

“When Pope Francis comes to Capitol Hill in September, he will be the first pontiff to address a joint meeting of Congress, where more than 30 percent of the members are Catholic. The visit will fulfill a long-held dream of Mr. Boehner, who says only his working-class roots as a bar owner’s son are more essential to his core than his Catholic upbringing. He has extended offers to popes for the last 20 years, and Francis, after taking nearly a year to consider, was the first to accept.”

“The pope’s visit comes with inherent tension for many Republicans, including those who are Catholic. While he has made no changes in church doctrine, Francis has forcefully staked out ideological ground opposite that of Mr. Boehner and his party. He has excoriated the excesses of capitalism as the “dung of the devil,” pleaded for action to stop global warming and enthusiastically supported the new nuclear accord with Iran.”

I cannot wait to see it. His Holiness, standing before the Congress where the President usually delivers his State of the Union speeches, with Vice President Joe Biden and Speaker Boehner behind him, lecturing the Congress about caring for the poor and the environment. Joe will be smiling broadly that day.

Jay Bookman at The Atlanta Journal Constitution compares Obama and Reagan’s Iran responses:

Context is also important. All of the above was occurring just two or three years after the assault on the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut that had killed 242 Marines, an attack perpetrated by the same terror groups with whom Reagan was exchanging arms for hostages. It occurred five or six years after Iranian revolutionaries seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran and held 52 Americans captive. That was the era and these were the people to whom Reagan was sending arms.

Now, by any objective, historic standard, which president was acting from a position of strength and resolve, and which from a position of weakness? Which was willing to make and stick by difficult decisions, and which was willing to surrender and give our enemies what they sought?

To make the answer clear for the teabagger trolls, Ronald Reagan was a weak treasonous, cheese-eating surrender-monkey. He should have been impeached and removed from office over Iran-Contra.

Ryan Lizza:

“Republicans almost universally acknowledge that, over the long-term, their Party needs to increase its appeal to Latinos in order to win the White House. The first step down that path is to talk about immigrants from Latin America in a respectful way and to marginalize prominent politicians who attack immigrants.”

“However, what is good for the Party over all is not necessarily good for individual candidates. One can laugh at Trump and his absurdities, but it’s wrong to say that he doesn’t matter. He has exposed and exploited the Republican Party’s two great weaknesses: the fact that many of its voters don’t agree with Party leaders on immigration and the fact that the Party is powerless to do much about it.”

A conscious choice has to be made. Courageous Republican party leaders need to cut the rope to that anchor dragging them down. That means standing up to their base, and not supporting candidate who play up to the base’s racism. But that means losing elections after election, and control of the House and Senate and State legislatures. It means giving up power.

The only thing giving Republicans the opportunity for power right now is the laziness and fecklessness of Democrats and Independents in off year elections.

Larry Sabato thinks Jeb Bush will show his mean side soon:

“Most presidential candidates have a streak of ruthlessness in them—even the nice guys. Make that especially the nice guys. They’re mild-mannered and courteous in public, so someone else has to do the dirty work of winning for them.”

“Jeb Bush will prove this again. It’s an easy prediction that he’ll follow his brother and father in bushwhacking any opponent standing between him and the presidency. With the Bushes, do not take too seriously their assertions of personal sweetness.”

He better. And he will have to. He is not going to win this race on his own merits. He will have to destroy everyone else.

First Read calculates the polling averages from the last five national polls to see who will get to participate in the first GOP presidential debate on August 6:

Trump – 16.8%
Bush – 14.8%
Walker – 9.8%
Rubio – 6.2%
Huckabee – 6.2%
Paul – 6.2%
Carson – 5.8%
Cruz – 5.2%
Christie – 2.8%
Perry – 2.4%

Not making the cut:

Santorum – 1.8%
Kasich – 1.6%
Jindal – 1.4%
Fiorina – 0.8%
Graham – 0.2%

Politico: “Trump’s presence at center stage — his reward if he maintains his lead in the polls — is likely to transform the first Republican debate into a major media event, bringing big ratings to Fox News, the debate sponsor. By the same token, however, it will likely turn the traditionally policy-focused event into a pageant of personality, which is a potential nightmare for other candidates.”

“Considered almost unthinkable just five weeks ago, Trump’s appearance at center stage is now the most inconvenient of truths for the would-be Republican front-runners. From Milwaukee to Miami, campaign aides are already wrestling with the Trump factor — strategizing on how to engage with him (if at all) and how to stave off his attacks.”

Joe Scarborough: “Trump will always be Trump, and there is no need for anyone in the Republican establishment to think otherwise. The best they can do is ride this wave of dissatisfaction and learn a lesson or two from it… But anyone looking for salvation from party leaders or major money players are looking in the wrong place. The burden of dethroning the Donald falls on GOP politicians like Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and others who have politely played by the old rules of an outdated political system that is no longer relevant to most Americans.”

“The longer Trump’s opponents play it safe, the longer Trump will continue his political ascent. If anyone in the field plans on showing the type of courage that doesn’t spill out of a focus group or benchmark poll, the DC Establishment had better hope they find it soon. Because there is at least a small chance that Mr. Trump will stop making unforced errors soon. And if that happens, there is no telling where this crazy race goes next.”

I posted about the new ABC News / Washington Post Poll yesterday showing Donald Trump as the undisputed double digit lead frontrunner for the Republicans, even AFTER he attacked all veterans and the military. But here are the full numbers, including a trial run with Trump running as an Independent.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY–ABC News-Washington Post: Trump 24, Walker 13, Bush 12, Huckabee 8, Rubio 7, Carson 6, Paul 6, Cruz 4, Perry 4, Christie 3, Kasich 2, Jindal 2, Pataki 1, Santorum 1, Fiorina 0, Graham 0

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY–ABC News-Washington Post: Clinton 63, Sanders 14, Biden 12, Webb 2, O’Malley 1, Chafee 0

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–ABC News-Washington Post: Clinton 51, Bush 41

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–THREE-WAY–ABC News-Washington Post: Clinton 47, Bush 29, Trump 19