Friday Open Thread [7.24.15]

Gallup shows that Catholic conservatives are blasphemous heathens: “Pope Francis’ drop in favorability is even starker among Americans who identify as conservative — 45% of whom view him favorably, down sharply from 72% last year. This decline may be attributable to the pope’s denouncing of ‘the idolatry of money’ and linking climate change partially to human activity, along with his passionate focus on income inequality — all issues that are at odds with many conservatives’ beliefs.”

The Pope’s favorability rating among moderates was 71 percent, and among liberals 68 percent. Overall, Francis has an favorability rating of 59 percent, down from 76 percent the February 2014 survey. “The pontiff’s rating is similar to the 58% he received from Americans in April 2013, soon after he was elected pope,” Gallup reported.

Brian Beutler on why Donald Trump terrifies Republicans:

For almost three years now, Republican strategic thought has been roughly divided between two schools. One, represented by Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and to a lesser extent Rand Paul, accepts the notion that the party must improve its performance with minority voters, without sacrificing its command of the white vote, in order to remain competitive in presidential elections. The other, represented by Ted Cruz and Scott Walker, rejects this premise.

These Republicans hew to the theory, expressed numerically by RealClearPolitics analyst Sean Trende, that making inroads with minorities is not important. The key to winning, they believe, lies with activating a large block of the white electorate that has stood on the sidelines, but would find a natural home in a Republican party if it were led by someone who could channel the political mood of the white working class.

Donald Trump is currently performing the hugely important political task of adjudicating this intra-GOP debate. Running as a Republican, Trump has made both factions’ goals—and the overarching goal of winning the presidency—more elusive. But by stitching together all the performative qualities Republicans have nurtured on the right over the years—pomp and property worship, xenophobia and anti-establishmentarianism—he’s also showing us what it takes to stir the passions of these missing white voters. Most Republicans, quite sensibly, are horrified by what they see.

In years past, Republicans didn’t think of Trumpism as a liability so long as Trump was outside the tent pissing further out. When Trump was busily whipping up reactionary sentiment, indulging birther conspiracies, Republicans didn’t see a “jackass”—they saw an opportunity. They recognized his appeal to a segment of white voters, and concluded it could be put to good use, so long as he marshaled his followers into the Republican electorate. They didn’t call him a media creation back then—they sought his endorsement.

Trump is now inside the tent, pissing everywhere. He threatens to neutralize the potential of these voters, or train them as a weapon against their own natural party, while bulldozing inroads to minorities. By placing xenophobic immigration politics at the center of the campaign, he’s made it practically impossible for Republicans to convince minorities that there’s a softer side of the GOP. And by condemning him so vocally, his Republican critics are reminding Trump’s supporters of everything they don’t like about the Republican party.

So if you are in the former camp and believe reaching out and changing the party is how you win again, then Trump destroys that path by reminding Latinos and everyone else that Republicans are evil racist bigots. If you are in the latter camp and believe the “missing white voter” is the key to keeping the GOP competitive in elections, then you worry that any attack on Trump alienates them. So in essence, Donald Trump is forcing the courageous choice that Republicans should have made after 2012: Either cast off the racist bigoted tea party or die.

If I were a Republican, I would realize that the 2016 election is already lost. I would let Trump and Cruz get the Presidential and Vice Presidential nomination and watch them go down in defeat in an epic landslide. And then I would finally clean house. And it may take a generation, but at least you’d have your party back.

Jay Bookman looks at the decline in recent jobless applications numbers:

if you judge by Republican rhetoric, none of this can be happening. Between ObamaCare, slightly higher taxes on the richest of Americans and an EPA that actually attempts to protect the environment and address issues such as climate change, the national economy ought to be a smoldering pile of rubble about now.

Yet it is not. Once again, everything they predicted has proved wrong. Funny how often that happens.

Harry Enten: “Donald Trump is making noise about an independent bid for president. If the Republican National Committee doesn’t treat him fairly, Trump says, he’ll be more likely to launch a third-party run. I don’t know if he is at all serious, but I do know two things: History suggests that an independent Trump campaign would crash and fail; polling suggests that even if that happened, Trump could take the Republican candidate down with him.”